THE CUP AND THE O'BRIEN FACTOR - JOSEPH NOT AIDAN

By Graham Potter | Monday, November 3, 2025

Joseph O’Brien was born in 1993, the year that Vintage Crop, trained by Demot Weld and ridden by Mick Kinane, became the first European horse to win the Melbourne Cup.

Perhaps there was a sign in there somewhere which would ultimately link these two events because here we are now with O’Brien about to saddle up two runners in tomorrow’s Melbourne Cup as he bids, at just thirty-two years of age, to claim a third training success in Australia’s greatest race.

O’Brien previously took out the Melbourne Cup training honours with Rekindling in 2017 … when, at just twenty-four he became the youngest winning trainer in Melbourne Cup history … and with Twilight Payment in 2020.

In one of those incredible quirks of racing, both Rekindling and Twilight Payment beat horses trained by Aidan O’Brien, Joseph’s illustrious father, into second place. Aidan O’Brien, arguably the most successful trainer world-wide, has never won a Melbourne Cup.

Unlike many Northern hemisphere Cup raiders, both of O’Briens Cup victories came under the guidance of local riders … Corey Brown (Rekindling) and Jye McNeil (Twilight Payment) … and there is a subtle shift from that policy this year with O’Brien sticking with an Australian jockey on one of his runners and handing the reins of the other to one of Aidan O’Brien’s go to jockey’s overseas.

O’Brien has engaged the very much in form Mark Zahra to ride the race’s top weight Al Riffa who certainly has the credentials to have a big say in the race.

The lightly raced six-year-old son of Wootton Bassett will be going into the Cup bidding for a hat trick of wins having saluted in the Group 2 Curragh Cup and the Group 1 Irish St Leger in his last two starts.

Three of his five wins (from fifteen starts) have come in Group 1 company … he, in fact became a Group 1 winner at only his third career start in National Stakes at the Curragh. He also won the GP of Berlin at Hoppegarten in Germany before rounding off his Group 1 haul to date in the Irish St Leger.

Those positives might be compromised by Ai Riffa being assigned top weight, which is a very steadying burden of 59kg. This means he will have to give away a weight advantage from between 2kg and 8kg to all of his twenty-three rivals … and this over a 3200m trip.

With the O’Brien camp being as savvy as they are, they wouldn’t send Al Riffa out if they didn’t think he could carry the weight and the day … but, he will have to defy history because not since Rain Lover completed a Melbourne Cup double in 1969 under 60.5kg has a horse carried more than 58kg to victory.

The reins of O’Brien’s second runner Goodie Two Shoes have been handed to Wayne Lorden who gained two significant victories for Aidan O’Brien earlier this year when partnering Lambourn to victory in the Group 1 Epsom Derby and Scandinavia to success in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup.

Like Zahra on Al Riffa, this will be Lorden’s first race ride on his Melbourne Cup mount.

While Goodie Two Shoes might not have results behind her name as menacing as that of Al Riffa, the daughter of Fastnet Rock does have two important factors in her favour … ones that connections would desire in any horse facing the challenge posed by races such as the Melbourne Cup.

She has a low weight … 51.5kg … and confirmed staying ability. Importantly, she is a Melbourne Cup distance winner.

So, there we have it … a two-pronged attack by a trainer who knows how to win a Melbourne Cup … or two.

This is firepower that needs to be respected.

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