WINNO'S WINNERS: FLEMINGTON, MELBOURNE CUP DAY

By Darren Winningham | Monday, November 3, 2025

The first Tuesday of November – that means Melbourne Cup Day 2025! The track is rated ‘Soft’. The rail is out 2 metres. The weather for Monday and Tuesday is wet and rainy – so I expect the track will be downgraded. I have looked for runners who will handle Soft conditions – just in case. If it gets into the heavy range – the races could become a lottery.

NB: As these selections were made prior to race-day, please check for any changes to track conditions and for any scratchings on the day.

Race 1

A Group 3 race over 1000 metres to start us off – the two-year-old runners are first up!

Selections:

5 – Diamater
4 – Carnevale
2 – Tornado Valley
8 – Free Flying
Rough chance – (12) Saluki

Race 2

A BM80 race over 2000 metres.

Selections:

3 – Makdane
4 – Navy King
7 – Brave Miss
10 – Party Crasher
Rough chance – (2) Lodbrok

Race 3

A Listed race over 1800 metres.

Selections:

9 – Arabian Prince
4 – Different Gravy
8 – Snitz Sonic
3 – Champagne Hero
Rough chance – (11) Super Paradise

Race 4

A three-year-old Open class race over 1400 metres.
Selections:

4 – Street Artist
8 – That’smoneybrother
9 – Bold Secret
2 – Pallaton
Rough chance – (1) Aleppo Pine

Race 5

A BM96 class race over 2800 metres.

Selections:

9 – Litzdeel
8 – Argumamama
10 – Golden Century
1 – Cleveland
Rough chance – (3) Don Diego De Vega

Race 6

A Listed race over 1800 metres.

Selections:

2 – Apulia
4 – Major Beel
6 – Athanatos
5 – Saint George
Rough chance – (3) Kingswood

Race 7 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP – GROUP 1

First leg of the Quaddie. A Group 1 race over 3200 metres.

There were a few great runs in the Caulfield Cup and I believe this may be the best form line this year for this race.

The winner Half Yours (14), trained by Tony & Calvin McEvoy with Jamie Melham riding, was impressive in winning. He will love any wet weather and the ground being chopped up – he thrives on it. He is well weighted and well-drawn, and I spoke to Tony McEvoy back in July when he won the Caloundra Cup he declared that if he was sound, he would take a power of beating in the Melbourne Cup. Well, it is the grand final day – will the long-range prediction pay off? I am just worried that he may not stay the 3200 metres – but if he can settle and Melham can put him to sleep, he does possess a powerful final sprint.

The horse storming home late in the Caulfield Cup was Presage Nocturne (6) – you could not have missed the run!

He is trained by Allesandro Botti and has his regular rider aboard – Stephane Pasquire. Normally I rule a line through runners with foreign jockeys on – just as a matter of them usually do not enjoy the tight Australian racing style. This runner was in traffic the whole way after missing the start at Caulfield. The jockey weaved a passage in the straight and he got out late – when he saw daylight he made up many lengths. I just hope he gets away on terms with them this time and races a little handy. He is my tip to win the race. He will handle any wet conditions as well – added bonus!

Royal Supremacy (22) is trained by Ciaron Maher and has the services of the 2024 Melbourne Cup winning jockey aboard – Robbie Dolan. Can he become the tenth jockey in the race’s history to complete this double? On paper you would say that this gelding’s run in the Caulfield Cup was below par. He won his previous start at Randwick in the Metropolitan – that has been a great form guide in recent years for this race. In the Caulfield Cup, he settled at the rear of the field and worked home nicely – no flashing red lights to attract any attention. He is cherry ripe for this race and watch Dolan get him balanced in the long Flemington straight and make his move late. This horsehas a wonderful 200 metre sprint – down in the weights he is going to be there at the end of the race.

The other overseas runner that has drawn my attention is Furthur (17) trained by Andrew Balding and Michael Dee will ride. He is only a very lightly raced four-year-old – ticks a few boxes – down in the weights – handles wet tracks and he races well fresh. A roughie for the exotics for mine at around $31.

Rough chances to two overseas representatives – Al Riffa (1) and Meydaan (8).

Valiant King and Buckaroo are from the Chris Waller yards – they both have solid wet weather form.

Selections:

6 – Presage Nocturne
22 – Royal Supremacy
14 – Half Yours
17 – Furthur
Rough chance – (1) Al Riffa - (24) Valiant King - (2) Buckaroo - (8) Meydaan

Race 8

First leg of the Treble. A Listed class race over 1400 metres.

Selections:

4 – Bacash
7 – Ripley
2 – Navy Pilot
15 – Ludlum
Rough chance – (3) Grand Prairie

Race 9

A Group 3 race over 1400 metres.

Selections:

14 – Pondalowie
15 – Surfin Bird
12 – Stylish
10 – Gumdrops
Rough chance – (6) Roll On High

Race 10

A BM90 race over 1400 metres.

Selections:

8 – Sabaj
3 – Ndola
7 – Sunshineinmypocket
11 – Le Ferrari
Rough chance – (12) Persian Spirit
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Early Quaddie (races 3 to 6).

4,8,9 / 2,4,8,9 / 8,9,10 / 2,4,6 - cost is $108 to $1.

Value Early Quaddie (races 3 to 6)

4,9 / 4,8 / 8,9,10 / 2,4 - cost is $24 to $1

Quaddie (races 7 to 10)

6,14,17,22 / 2,4,7,15 / 10,12,14,15 / 3,7,8,11 - cost is $256 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 7 to 10)

6,14,22 / 4,7 / 12,14,15 / 3,7,8 - cost is $54 to $1

Treble (races 8 to 10)
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2,4,7,15 / 10,12,14,15 / 3,7,8,11 - cost is $64 to $1.

Jockey Challenge

Looks like a race between Mark Zahra, Craig Williams, Ethan Brown and Michael Dee. I think Ethan Brown will get the job done – back in Melbourne after riding in Sydney for the past 6 weeks!

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