OBE UNPLUGGED - THE VALUE OF BETTING FLUCTUATIONS AND SP'S UNDER SCRUTINY
By Mark Oberhardt | Monday, February 11, 2013
Mark Oberhardt has been a racing and sports reporter for 40 years. He has written racing for the Courier Mail, Brisbane Telegraph, Sydney Sunday Telegraph, Sportsman, Australian Associated Press, etc. He has also written many sports columns including the Courier Mail’s The Ear. Mark has also been a regular on RadioTAB for 20 years. Mark’s personal blog, Obe Unplugged, will appear every Monday on HRO.
THE decision by the Racing Queensland Limited board to change the method of assessing betting fluctuations in Queensland has caused plenty of comment.
It also raised a question I have been wondering about for the past few years … do we really need bookmakers betting fluctuations at all on race days?
To explain: RQ will introduce amendments to the way in which a betting market is assessed to be sent out on the Australian Prices Network.
For all of the Queensland metropolitan race meetings, the betting market will be distributed through APN's network and be assessed by using both on-course bookmakers and other licensed wagering operators.
Those licensed wagering operators included for the markets will be selected on the basis of their turnover on Queensland.
The RQ board said the changes were necessary because of the changing betting styles. It believes it will provide a more accurate guide of the betting activity on Queensland races.
It has caused a stir with local bookies who say it can't work.
There are some logistic problems but nothing that should cause too big an uproar.
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But, apart from some services offered by corporate bookies, why do we really need Starting Prices?
It always seemed to me that even in the old days the only people who wanted SPs were the illegal bookies who flourished throughout Australia. But the corporates have seen them off.
As for market trends, I have always thought the TAB odds were a far better guide to a betting market than the bookies ring.
First of all the TAB always bets (well it should) to 116 percent while the Brisbane bookies rarely get under 130 percent.
In fairness to the local lads it is virtually impossible for them to set a proper old style market because there is so little betting on-course these days.
Also so much betting is done on Thursday and Friday that I must ask if Saturday fluctuations for the final 30 minutes of betting are much of a guide to anything.
Long gone are the days when punters would make a living backing the shorteners in the final 10 minutes.
These days it is a recipe for disaster to back the shorteners.
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Many punters bet early because they feel they can get great value as early shoppers on Thursday and Friday.
In other words the market has probably been decided before local bag boys even put up their prices.
There are many places in the world (even the giant Hong Kong racing system) where there are no bookies and they can get by without bookies fluctuations.
If all bookmakers bet to what they were holding on horses it would mean they would have a true market.
Of course the wild card is Betfair which is probably the most dominant factor in Australian betting these days.
I still remember a TAB official telling me Australians would never take to Betfair.
How wrong could you be?
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The other news this week was TVN cutting ties with corporate betting. No longer will corporates provide staff for TVN programmes and also such services as the "betting mover.”
I wonder if it leaves a chance for race clubs to grab some more sponsorship from the corporates.
Could we see a corporate sponsor Eagle Farm and Doomben race-courses.
At the moment it can't be done under the agreement with the TAB.
But will all that change when the new agreement is reached with the tote?
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