OBE UNPLUGGED - 'ODDS-ON, LOOK ON.' THE OLD ADAGE HAS NEVER BEEN MORE APT THAN IT IS AT THE MOMENT

By Mark Oberhardt | Monday, February 18, 2013

Mark Oberhardt has been a racing and sports reporter for 40 years. He has written racing for the Courier Mail, Brisbane Telegraph, Sydney Sunday Telegraph, Sportsman, Australian Associated Press, etc. He has also written many sports columns including the Courier Mail’s The Ear. Mark has also been a regular on RadioTAB for 20 years. Mark’s personal blog, Obe Unplugged, will appear every Monday on HRO.

TIMES are pretty tough in Queensland with plenty of people being out of work and desperate to make ends meet.

What has that got to do with a racing blog - you might well ask?

Well, the fact was rammed home to me when a mate, who is victim of the Public Service purge, rang to seek my advice. Basically he had a tip on a horse at Gosford which was quoted at odds-on but he was assured it was unbeatable.

He asked whether he should have a good percentage of his redundancy on the horse to cover the mortgage for the next six months.

Again nothing unusual except I couldn't remember him having a bet apart from the Melbourne Cup in the 40 odd years I had known him.

I then explained to him that things had changed dramatically in Australian racing when it came to "good things".

I spent 10 minutes explaining that in days gone by a two-year-old which was quoted at odds-on was indeed a good thing. The strike rate of odds-on favourites in two-year-old races 20 to 40 years ago was well over 90 percent.

I don't have current figures but you can bet the strike rate is a lot less than that.

I am told in some states it is around 60 percent success. Maybe better than Gold Lotto but still a major risk.

Luckily, I talked him out of betting and it proved a wise choice as the horse ran a nice third.

The point to the story is the old adage … odds on look on, never run up stairs … has never been as apt as in Australian racing at the moment.

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Some people want to point at Queensland racing for producing odds-on flops.

I received an email which nearly burned off the page after a $1.30 pop at Toowoomba recently ran 50 metres last. But fair dinkum NSW, Victoria and South Australia aren't exactly an Eden for punters when it comes to in the red horses.

It seems to be nothing for $1.50 pops to finish last and not a word is said.

I suppose it is sad to live in the past, but I am from a generation where an odds-on favourite finishing last brought a demonstration. A form reversal at its next start brought something close to a riot.

I can remember being at Albion Park one day when a demonstration went on for 20 minutes and police were called to disperse the crowd.

No wonder the punters were angry as the winner at just saluted at 12-1 when it had been beaten at its previous start at 5-1 on.

Now I am not suggesting a return to those days but at least punters showed a bit of passion. These days they are a bit like a beaten dog … they just expect things to go wrong.

A classic example was Havana Del Ray in Sydney recently who went from 100 metres last to winning at his next start.

There were a few hard-hearted comments in the steward’s room from where the classic quote of "racing is a funny game" was given as an excuse.

Of course the bottom line is that many, many horses which are sent out odds-on favourites simply are not genuine hot shots.

It never ceases to amaze just how short some horses are dished up. But while punters are willing to take $1.50 about a genuine $2.50 pop it will continue to happen.

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Meanwhile, the other discussion point in racing on Saturday was the make-up of the board to oversee racing in Queensland.

I have made it clear who I would like to see on the ruling body but whoever it is, let’s hope they can get everyone pulling in at least some type of one direction.

Disunity has been the bane of Queensland racing for 30 years and it needs to stop now!

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