MY CALL - BETTING IS ALL ABOUT GETTING VALUE FOR YOUR MONEY WHATEVER THE PRICE MIGHT BE
By David Fowler | Tuesday, April 16, 2013
David Fowler is the principal thoroughbred caller for Radio TAB. David, who is a keen form student and punter, has enjoyed a lifetime involvement in the racing media. His personal blog, ‘My Call’, appears exclusively on HRO.
“Don't take odds on or run up stairs," the legendary race caller Ken Howard used to say.
With due respect to the great "Magic Eye", I think that's a lot of nonsense.
Although I will advise against running up stairs, particularly before calling a race!
Seriously though, this obsession with "odds on" or a price less than $2 or "even money" is stuff of days gone by.
Was it even appropriate then to consider "odds on" commodities in the same league as the bubonic plague? I doubt it.
A price is a price and is individual to a race itself.
Sweeping statements that "x" amount of odds-on favourites are beaten proves nothing. It is a terrible generalisation.
The only thing that can be agreed upon is for a small outlay, there is a small return and for a big return you have to outlay big money.
Some still thunder "don't take odds on". So, under their prophecy, I can eagerly take $2 about a horse but at a $1.95 must walk away. Give me a break.
Every horse has a price whether you form it yourself (the best way to go) or whether you observe someone else's analysis.
So if a horse is priced in pre-post markets at $1.80 yet the tote odds are only $1.30 near start time, of course you don't bet. IT'S NOT VALUE.
Yet if you price a horse at $1.3 and you can secure $1.8 near start time, you bet up. IT IS VALUE.
You can apply the same scenario to any price.
Betting is all about getting value for your money and it's the same principle whatever the price is.
"In the red" was an old term. For crying out loud, the red used to distinguish from the black on the betting boards doesn't even exist these days.
The whole concept of the scourge of betting odds on has been peddled for too long and, unfortunately, allowed to run the test of time.
Wake up punters. Sometimes $1.80 is value.
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I can add no more to the plaudits already delivered to Black Caviar and It's A Dundeel.
A terrific day of racing.
But I'm astonished that the performance of Overreach in the Sires has either been condemned or given a bare pass mark.
The ignorance of those who should know better is unforgiveable. Let me explain.
Overreach went out to lead in the Sires and ran the first 800m in 45.85. That's what they run in a genuine Stradbroke and those leaders don't earn a cheque.
It's rare to see a horse carve out such a brilliant sectional and win. The fact she hung on tenaciously for a close third was a remarkable effort for a two-year-old filly.
I've said it before and it's worth saying again that sectional times are crucial to proper form analysis.
I hope Gai backs her up in the Champagne and they pot the hell out of her which will ensure a more generous price. The tempo will certainly not be in the pressure cooker mode she adopted in the Sires.
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Speaking of Stradbrokes, a $1 million bucks first prize to this year's winner was announced late last week.
But there is also talk of reviewing the race, primarily its conditions, post 2013.
The "Straddie" is Queensland's signature race when a capacity field thunders over 1400m under handicap conditions.
Sure it's presence is not as powerful as it used to be. Nor is any race on the Winter Carnival agenda.
There is a lot more on offer during autumn and spring and the gaps either side of our time in the sunshine are not as long as they used to be.
Changing the Stradbroke to weight-for-age will certainly ensure a 12 horse boutique field.
Come on, that's not the Straddie!
This is a race where horses are darting here, there and everywhere 100m from the finish. The big guns against the up-and-comers. The big guns against the lighter weights who have a realistic chance under the conditions presented.
That's what a handicap is all about. Don't touch it!
Until next week.
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