DOOMBEN, OCTOBER 19: DAVID FOWLER SELECTS ...

By David Fowler | Saturday, October 19, 2013

Form assessed for a dead 5 with a likely upgrade to a dead 4

RACE 1:

TOTALLY SURE (5) is a standout, leading all way at very short odds ($1.3 likely) from first starter I’M ALONE (3) who has trialled nicely twice and the speedy A BIT WICKED (1) who ran 2nd here 2 weeks ago. Rough chance 4.

RACE 2:

Staying race with a lot of chances. SOUL CRUSADE (8) is as good a stayer as these and the 6kg weight drop is significant after his close 4th Ipswich after running 2nd to Borehole at EF. TRAJET (5) arguably should have won latest D'bn 3rd. Chance again. Go forward horse BOREHOLE (2) has won his past 2 and is hard to get past. Rough chances 1, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 10.

RACE 3:

MISS IMAGICA (2) and PELLEGRINI (7) from their good alleys will make the pace and both have justifiable winning claims. MISS IMAGICA drops 6.5kg on game 2nd track and trip last Sat while PELLEGRINI ran well in the B grade winter carnival sprints and has trialled impressively for 1st-up run. BELLTONE (1) is back in distance after Epsom run (not all that bad) but small field assists. Rough chances 3 and 6.

RACE 4:

Good quality 3yo line -up. WHISKEY ALL ROUND (2) has acquitted himself well in Melbourne and Sydney and secures the run of the race here with Cahill booked. SAMMI JAIN (7) is rising in class but has done nothing wrong. Good turn of speed. SIR LUMINAR (4) will lead off the rails gate and back against own age group and back in distance a plus. Rough chances 1, 3, 5 and 8.

RACE 5:

THEFT (1) will run well here. Should lead or park outside leader. All 3 runs this time in have been sound and 1200m is his most effective trip. Keen each-way. CAELLUM (8) is ultra-consistent and has only missed a place once since coming from NZ. Respect. TAX EVADER (3) is the best horse and won track and trip 1st-up last campaign. Watch betting. Rough chances 5, 6, 9, 10 and 11.

RACE 6:

LEVIOSA (3) and ANNA LIZZIE (6) will corner the market here. Both contested the same race 2 weeks ago and were unsuited by slow tempo. LEVIOSA will be in front of ANNA LIZZIE and represents better value at the odds. Go each-way strongly. ANNA LIZZIE is certainly assisted by the step up to the mile. DANYME (8) will race on pace and is honest. Rough chances 1, 4, 5 and 9.

RACE 7:

ELMANTOSH (10) is lightly-raced and promising. Hard to beat on latest 3rd this track and trip 2 weeks ago when worked 3-wide to be up outside leader. May take midfield cover today. REGULAR (6) has failed at only mile assignment as a 2yo but is in-form this preparation and will lead for a long way. MAGIC IN MOTION (9) is looking for this trip 3rd-up. Rough chances 2, 4, 5 and 8.

RACE 8:

Field lessened with scratchings. CAPE KIDNAPPERS (1) is good fresh and has won 6 from 8. Gets all the favours from the rails gate. Hardest to beat. STRADON (8) is in new stable, impressive triallist, but 1000m might be a touch short 1st-up. SINISTER PRINCE (6) was game behind Missy Longstocking at EF 3 weeks ago. Chance. Rough chances 4 and 5.

BEST BET: ELMANTOSH (Race 7).

BEST EACHWAY: THEFT (Race 5).

BEST ROUGHIE: SHAPIN LADY (Race 4).

QUADRELLA : 1, 3, 8 / 3, 6 / 6, 10 / 1, 6, 8.

David Fowler