THE SUNSHINE COAST NEWSPAPER COLUMN - RACE-TIMES NEED TO BE TREATED WITH CIRCUMSPECTION

By Graham Potter | Sunday, October 26, 2014

Graham Potter writes a weekly column for the Sunshine Coast daily. Due to demand from those having trouble accessing the paper these columns are now also published on HRO courtesy of the Sunshine Coast daily.

What’s going on with the race-times that are being clocked these days?

How is it that some ordinary horses are running stellar times?

This has been something of a mystery in recent weeks as a host of race records have tumbled like domino’s falling one after another. Of course, with the climate of recent months, the tracks have got faster with the good 3 rating, once just a distance memory, back as the order of the day, but that hardly explains the rash of changes being made to the record books.

Examples of this latest trend are arriving almost on a meeting by meeting basis which goes against the grain of the theory that in order to obtain a special result you have to put in a special performance.

I could dissect any one of several of these recent ‘record’ runs to further my point but will mention just three races by way of example.

At Ipswich on Wednesday Jack Be Quick officially ran a new class record, stopping the clock in 1-19.53 in a Class 3 1350m for colts, geldings and entires. In doing so he erased Freespins name from the record books and his effort lowered a class record that had stood for eleven years.

That can happen but, perhaps more pertinent to the argument presented here, is the fact that the next five horses across the line all finished within one-and-a-half lengths of the winner.

So are we to believe that, after eleven years, we were suddenly blessed with six horses in the same race that could test the race record?

Does that sound right?

Interestingly enough, two races later, in a Fillies and Mares Class 3 over the same distance, Sister Emma not only improved on Jack Be Quick’s time, but went a step further by lowering the track record previously held by the duel Eye Liner Stakes winner Adnocon. That record had stood for more than four years.

Really?

At the Sunshine Coast two Friday’s ago Beau Jet won the opening race. The rail was out 8m and the rider eased and patted the untested Beau Jet home over the last 100m yet he still recorded a time of 56.68 seconds … a new race record and just .01 outside of Ginkgo Gold’s track record set in 2008.

Was that result, in those circumstances, believable?

I could go on!

As you will have guessed by now I don’t believe you can set too much store by race-times and more’s the pity because, if strictly maintained and accurately applied, times should be a one of the prime tools available for punters trying to dissect form-lines.

To me, there are enough indicators in play to suggest that official race times need to be treated with some circumspection.

If I am right, many questions come into play. Are the race records accurate in the first place? Is the race starting from exactly the correct distance position? Can the timing mechanism inadvertently be set off late?

And if I’m wrong?

Well, perhaps we are simply in an abnormal phase but, until totally convinced otherwise, I’ll still believe what I believe of the times and I’ll wish those who choose to work with them all the best in their endeavours to slay the dragon.

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