MY CALL - CAPITALIST WORTHY OF SHORT-PRICED FAVOURITISM. HE IS IN A DIFFERENT LEAGUE TO HIS RIVALS
By David Fowler | Tuesday, January 5, 2016
David Fowler is the principal thoroughbred caller for Radio TAB. David, who is a keen form student and punter, has enjoyed a lifetime involvement in the racing media. His personal blog, ‘My Call’, appears exclusively on HRO.
Anyone who pots Capitalist's Magic Millions winning chances needs to have a long hard look in the mirror.
Previous odds on MM winners General Nediym and Testa Rossa were in a different league to their rivals. Capitalist in the same.
I laughed when some suggested Capitalist could get "cut off" from barrier two.
Throwaway lines like that don't assist punters. Capitalist has got natural speed if Blake Shinn wants to press the envelope.
But he's in a box seat position with all the pace drawn off the track, working hard and fading late with clearly less ability than Capitalist.
Worth pointing out that there is a barrier trial win on a soft 7 at Randwick in his CV if the track happened to be rain affected.
Weather predictions are not too gloomy and, hopefully, the Gold Coast track will present in the Good 4/Soft 5 range for the big dance in Saturday.
His current price of $1.7 offers limited value but neither is the price under the odds.
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The market has it wrong with Niccolance compared to some other runners.
The stablemate of Capitalist is quoted at $12. I'm dumbfounded he is not a clear second favourite.
He should have won on debut then ran into Capitalist at Wyong. He simply ran into a better horse.
Niccolance has since trialled comfortably and is mapped to secure a beaut run from barrier six.
Maybe a small saver at $12 but the real bet is the $3.35 the drum.
That is definitely over the odds.
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There is an outstanding value bet in the MM three-year-old Guineas.
Take the $18/$4.8 about Most Important and you will secure a terrific run for your money.
It's no secret he started his campaign overweight yet he is peaking at the right time at his fourth run back.
I considered his was the run of the race in the Vo Rogue. Three wide with cover and no cover at various stages, he savaged the line.
Drawn the centre of the line, I expect him to be handier to the lead on Saturday.
And if there are wet track issues, he has won twice on a soft 7.
Granted Egyptian Symbol drew well but Mahuta and Flippant will do it tough from car park draws.
Yeah, Most Important is a great gamble.
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This is my last My Call column before taking a few weeks holiday.
Hope you enjoy the MM Saturday and back plenty of winners.
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