WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, MAY 13

By Darren Winningham | Friday, May 12, 2017

Last week WINNO was in form at the Gold Coast track – the track was on fire – with Class Records being smashed across the program. I think I managed 4 winners – the early Quaddie – a few boxed trifectas and one in order!

Plus Hugh Bowman dominated with a race to race treble and saluted in the jockeys challenge at $4.60!

A big day on the tip.

This week we are back at Doomben. There has been some rain in South East Queensland since Wednesday and the track is currently posted as “heavy”. If we get some fine weather over coming days I am sure the track will be upgraded – but at the moment I am looking for horses that can handle a wet track.

My late mail is we should be racing on a slow track come Saturday.

This is the first day of the Brisbane Racing Club’s 2017 Winter Carnival – let’s hope we can get plenty of cash in our pockets for the coming weeks!

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.

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Race 1

I really do like Marscay Force (1) and Quatronic (2) here but I am being forced to go away from them with the horrible wide barriers they have both drawn this weekend. They have drawn barriers 20 and 22 respectively. They will need some serious luck from out there. They may even get jet blast out that wide from the planes taking off the airport!

Tumbler (6) drops back in class from her failure in the Victory Stakes at Eagle Farm two weeks ago. I would strongly suggest that you overlook that run – I think the track and the Eagle Farm circuit destroyed her chances of a good performance. Back to Doomben this weekend and a wet track there are a few reasons to like her chances.

Toby Edmonds has Better Land (8) engaged first up with stable jockey Jeff Lloyd aboard. He looked pretty forward after a solid hit out at the Gold Coast in a barrier trial on 2 May 2017. I think he is the one to beat here this weekend! Great each way odds on offer as well at $12!

Invincible Express (5) has had some good support firming from $6 to $4.60. His effort at Ipswich first up a month ago was good and trainer David Vandyke does like to space this mares runs out. She looks well placed in this grade and she has drawn well in barrier 8 when compared to some of the other runners.

I found some extra rough chances here that do like a wet track and may show something if they get a run.

Stella Ombra (10) likes a soft track – not sure how he will handle a heavy track. If it improves I think she will be competitive at Doomben on a soft track. Jim Byrne rides the gelding again here. He hasn’t cracked a win on him yet but has four placings from five rides.

Lady Duporth (19), trained by Peter & Will Hulbert, ran super in her first run at Eagle Farm. Michael Hellyer retains the ride and if you shop around well you may be able to jag $71 about her chances. She does normally race best in her first few starts from a spell – second up here at Doomben may see her go okay. She is the 4th emergency and may not even get a start here.

Selections: 8-6-5-2 rough chances 1,10 and 19

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Race 2

There has been some serious early action in the markets with two horses at long odds being backed in this race.

The first is Allknight Saint (1) who always runs a great race second up. The Brad Herne trained gelding has been smashed being backed from $51 to $21 in the early markets.

The other one is Payroll (14) from the Bevan Laming stables who has a two wins from four starts first up from a spell. It has been hammered from $20 to $13.

Whilst I have not put these two in my top selections Allknight Saint (1) does love a wet track but I do think he goes better across the road at Eagle Farm.

I keep on tipping Privlaka (2). He loves a wet track – he will appreciate being back at Doomben this week as well. His last two runs at Eagle Farm and Toowoomba have been solid. This week out to 1350 metres here and back to Doomben, I do like him. Barrier 13 is a concern but Damien Browne rides this Rob Heathcote trained gelding well and I am sure he will give him a gun run.

Don’t Tell Mama, trained by Tony Sears and to be ridden by Jimmy Orman, has drawn well – does love the Doomben track and will appreciate the sting out of the ground. If there is one to challenge Privlaka this is the one! Orman has an impeccable record on this five year old mare with 5 rides for 3 wins and a second on her. Watch for him to be making a late run wide here inside the final 150 metres!

I tipped Sharpe Hussler (8) the other week at Eagle Farm and the run was great behind Mystic Opal. He was only just nailed on the post by Privlaka (2) for second placing. This week on a wet track and back to Doomben watch for another solid performance. He has drawn barrier 19 so he will need to be ridden for luck by jockey Ronnie Stewart but I do think he is a real chance if he gets in from out there.

Time to Torque (10) has drawn on the Brisbane airport runway in barrier 21. He will need some luck as well from out there but he loves Doomben and goes well on a rain affected track.

There are two emergencies here that will be some massive value if they get a run. They are the New Zealand trained William Wallace (20) in his first run in Australia. I can tell you there is a big wrap on this gelding – he is lightly raced – can handle all track conditions and recently showed he is quite forward and ready to show something this weekend with a recent barrier trial win at Deagon. He has drawn wide in barrier 18 – but keep your eye on this one in coming weeks!

Binary (22) from the Kelly Schweida stable is up in grade here but drawn well in barrier 1 and down on the minimum may be one at grand odds around $61 to fill a place if he gets a run. Kelly has a knack of producing a long priced winner or place getter over the Carnival – this could be one!

Selections: 7-2-8-10 rough chances 20 and 22

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Race 3 – Singapore Turf Club Members Handicap

The Singapore Turf Club sponsors this race.

I have been fortunate to visit this race club and watch the races and enjoy their hospitality. It is a wonderful venue and they really do put on a great show and competitive racing. If you are ever over that way for holiday, business or just a stopover, I can recommend you getting out to the track and enjoying the atmosphere!

Yet another one has been backed at odds here since the markets opened – this one is the Bjorn Baker trained Sebrina (8) to be ridden by Brenton Avdulla. Since the markets have opened a serious amount of money has seen the mare firm from $31 to $17. She will handle a wet track and forget the last start run at Hawkesbury where she didn’t get around the track. I would alert you to her serious second up record where she has had 6 starts for 3 wins and a second. I did manage to jag some of the $25 on offer before she was backed in further. She may be one to watch – she has been to Brisbane previously and raced well. Avdulla has a good record on her with 4 rides for a win and a second.

I am going on the Single Gaze form a few weeks ago at Doomben as my guide for this race.

I do think Jumbo Prince (2) from the Michael Nolan team at Toowoomba represents good value here at around $4.50. He is third up here this weekend and he cannot be faulted third up with 6 starts, 3 wins and a second – he will take some beating! Luke Tarrant retains the ride as well – he has a great association with the stallion with 8 rides for 4 wins and 2 placings – a formidable team if you ask me!

The other horse out of that race the other week is Cantbuybetter (5) from the Ben Currie yards at Toowoomba. The race could be dubbed the battle of the boys from up on the hill! Cantbuybetter has the services of Jeff Lloyd again this week and he will be suited by the mile.

The other two that are good chances here are Beatniks (3) who likes wet tracks and Doomben. I think down on the minimum and with a quick back up from her run from the Prime Ministers Cup at the Gold Coast last week she will run well here.

Rob Heathcote has another genuine chance here with Punta Norte (4) – again a good consistent performer over a mile. However, I do prefer him over at Eagle Farm – but still a genuine chance here this weekend.

Selections: 2-5-3-4 rough chance 8

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Race 4 – 2017 Moet Champagne Classic

I see Chris Munce has made a gear change to Ours to Keep (1) this weekend with the addition of blinkers for the first time. I was not disappointed with his run first up in the Dalrello when he was beaten by his stable mate Saint Patricks Day. I think back on the Doomben track this week we will see a sharp improvement in the colt. He was on fire before his Magic Millions run when he had no luck – watch out this week that this one does not get under your guard here.

Snitzkraft (2) led in the Dalrello and again like the top weight will strip fitter for the run. Now trained by the united Kelso Wood and Patricia Gesler team he too will probably be happier being back at Doomben where he has a great record. There has been some serious support for this one since the markets have opened firming from $3.80 to $3.30. It could give this new training combination their first chance to win a Group 2 race. I am sure Winno will get a hug and a kiss after the race from Gesler if this occurs. As for Kelso – I think I may have to pass!

Tangled (6) is trained by the powerful Sydney stable of Chris Waller who was on fire last weekend at the Gold Coast. I am putting this one on top at the great odds of $7 – but I think whatever he does this weekend he will improve on in coming weeks – an good each way bet all day at the odds!

Noble Hussler (5) won at Toowoomba over the Carnival up there a month ago. He has been freshened up for this run this week. I believe he has had a recent jump out where he went well and Liam Birchley always seems to produce a nice two year old each year over the Carnival. He is massive odds - like he was when he won at Toowoomba – around $17 if you shop well.

I must mention the two trained by Peter & Will Hulbert – Cooroi Chase (10) to be ridden by Michael Hellyer and the other Showashadow (12) to be ridden by Opie Bosson. Both have been racing well on recent starts and may represent some value for your exotic bets if you wish to play wide here.

Selections: 6-1-2-5 rough chance 10 and 14

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Race 5

This is the opening race of the Quadrella.

This is an even bunch of three year olds. Lots of questions surround the form of the Sydney runners coming off bog tracks and onto probably a soft track this weekend at Doomben.

I usually do not do this but I am tipping them in race book order.

Good Standing (1) is trained by James Cummings – I have reviewed the run in the Hawkesbury Guineas when he led and was run down late in the final 75 metres. I think that run places him in good stead here this week. I know that he has never won second up but I do think the tight turning track at Hawkesbury may not have suited the colt. Damian Browne takes the mount here – watch out for this one I think he could prove to be special over the Carnival.

Morton’s Fork (2) trained by Darren Beadman for the Godolphin team had a mission to Melbourne where he performed admirably in some tough Group 1 races. This week back to Listed conditions and set weights he looks well placed. He has been trialling well in recent weeks with the latest win at Randwick full of merit.

Hall of Fame (3) trained by Stephen Autridge & Jamie Richards in New Zealand is second up here – but first up in Australia. There are big wraps on this one but I would like to see him run first. He does have a win second up to his name in New Zealand – look for any late markets moves here on this one!

Oink (4) was super impressive at Eagle Farm first up – carried 59 kilograms and went head to head with Billy The Kid (7) who he meets again – and meets him better at the weights with the conditions of this race. This gelding goes well and I know that the owners and regular strapper Heidi Whalley deserve the chance to win a Listed race and then set themselves up for the rest of the Brisbane Winter Carnival. I am not sure if Grant and Keiley Bell will be in attendance this weekend – but I am sure Winno will catch up for a handshake from “Miss Daisy” (Mr Bell – as he drives like Miss Daisy) and a big kiss and cuddle from Mrs Bell in the weeks to come!

Sylpheed (14) who I thought was a rough chance last weekend at the Gold Coast and drew wide and was pratted wide for the run still finished off the race well – she has been the subject of some serious support with the punters snapping up the early price of $20and she is now into $9. I can understand the confidence here this week as the run last week in the Gold Coast Guineas was enormous when only beaten 1.5 lengths in a blanket finish. This week Jeff Lloyd takes over and she has drawn nicely in barrier 6 – a few reasons I suppose for the confidence that surrounds this one.

Selections:

1-2-3-4 rough chances 7 and 14

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Race 6 – AQWA Constructions Chairman’s Handicap (Group 3)

I found it hard to split my top two here. Stampede (2), trained by Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott, and Chocante (7), trained by New Zealand trainer Stephen Marsh. I think to be fair they both have above average wet weather form and they should be hard to beat if the track is a little chopped up and soft come race 6. They are both in the market and I think should fill the placings.

Stampede (2) comes off an all the way win at Wagga Wagga last start when he dominated the race. He is a real nice type and as a four year old has had only eight starts and has only been out of a place on one occasion. He will probably lead here with Kerrin McEvoy booked to ride him – he has drawn wide in barrier 14 but I think he will have plenty of time to get across and take up a forward position without using up too much petrol.

Chocante (7) was a Group 3 winner last preparation in New Zealand. He has never won third up but I am gambling that 2000 metres will be right up his alley this weekend. Jim Byrne has been booked for the ride here and I think he will be making his run late in the straight. I think the last start run at Ellerslie over 1600metres in a Group 2 race was a good run. He was drawn wide and was very strong at the finish – the extra distance this week should suit. If the track doesn’t recover and stays in the slow to heavy rating that will assist him as well as he has an impeccable record in slow and heavy going.

Neverland (3) is making his debut in Queensland this week for the Darren Weir stables. He has a very strong summer campaign in Western Australia where he ran a gallant second in the Perth Cup (Group 2). He is second up here and certainly does have some superior form on paper when compared against his rivals. He has a wonderful second up record with three starts for two wins.

The locally trained Feltre (6) rounds out my top four selections – forget about the last start run at Eagle Farm where the track defeated him – he goes well here at Doomben and I cannot forget the run over the Magic Millions when he was defeated narrowly by Stratum Star – that is good form for this race.

Morendi (9) from the Darren Graham stables located at Murwillumbah won with a barnstorming run from last to first at Eagle Farm two weeks ago – a great run and he has been in career best form. He could be one at nice odds to knock out some of these runners.

Zambezi Warrior (11) is another New Zealand raider trained by Stephen Autridge & Jamie Richards. He has been gelded since his last start and should strip a little lighter here. I think we will see the best of this one in coming weeks over the longer distances.

Selections: 7-2-3-6 rough chances 9 and 11

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Race 7 – 2017 JAME’S BOAG DOOMBEN 10,000 (Group 1)

The first Group 1 of the winter Carnival in Brisbane – and what a race!

I really struggled here as there are some serious chances.

Music Magnate won this race last year when the race was over 1350 metres – this year there has been a change in the distance back to 1200 metres. He looked pretty good at Eagle Farm winning the Victory Stakes two weeks ago leading from barrier to the finish with Jeff Lloyd on board.

The New Zealand runner Start Wondering (8) has been running well in Group 1 races in New Zealand consistently. His record of 19 starts for 10 wins and 5 placings is hard to go past here. The soft track will suit the six year old gelding and jockey Johnathan Parkes has a great record on him with 6 rides for 3 wins and 2 seconds. I think he is a great each way bet around $15.

Chris Waller has Counterattack (7) nominated for the race. He is another that likes wet tracks and has previously won at Doomben. He won a barrier trial in late March before stepping out two weeks later in the Group 3 Hall Mark when narrowly beaten by rival this week Redzel (6). Counterattack can be an enigma – but he has an important gear change this week blinkers back on for this race. I would be confident that we will see an improved performance here this weekend.

There are two three year olds I give a chance to as well. They are Russian Revolution (12), who has had a gear change with a cross over nose band on this weekend. He won a recent barrier trial on 28 April on a slow track at Randwick and he looked impressive. Darren, sorry Derryn (13) trained by David & B Hayes and Tom Dabernig is going well this preparation. His last start win in the Arrowfield 3YO sprint (Group 2) was good, but back into open company here this week against some serious Group 1 horses he may just struggle.

I am keen to see Takedown (3) run here this weekend – the barrier is an absolute horror – barrier 15. I just hope we see an improved run this weekend at Doomben. I was hoping for a firm track and a better draw this weekend. If he shows nothing here this weekend trainer Gary Moore may have to send him out for a spell.

Do not underestimate Fell Swoop (1) either. His pet distance is 1200metres and although he is drawn wide I think there will be genuine speed on and Damian Browne will be able to wait and make his run late. I think that is the best way to ride this Matthew Dale trained gelding. He was strong in a recent 800 metre barrier trial at Goulbourn. This may just be the race for him this year!

Selections: 5-8-7-1 rough chances 12 and 13

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Race 8

I think you would want to hope you have had a winning day coming into this last race.

It is a race where anything could happen.

I have put the form out of the recent Packer Plate (Group 3) at Randwick a month ago as the form to be considered for this race and I am suggesting that Veladero (1) will turn the tables on Mongolian Wolf (3) this weekend.

The Waller trained Veladero (1) won a barrier trial on Monday this week at Rosehill – the run was great and I think would have sharpened him up for the mission this weekend. Good odds as well on offer at around $6.50.

Obviously, Mongolian Wolf (3) trained now by Darren Weir is a likely danger. I think the wetter the track the better this one will go – whereas the opposite is the case for Veladero (1).

Shocking Luck (14) stepped out at Ipswich over 1500m two weeks ago. The distance and the tight turning Ipswich track I think brought him undone when he was sent out as favourite. It would pay to overlook that run and go on the previous Waikato Guineas (Group 2) run at Te Rapa when he ran a gallant second. At this stage he looks a great chance for the Queensland Derby and I think I may take some early odds this weekend on the futures markets on this one as he looks a nice type.

Opie Bosson is here to partner this one over the Winter Carnival – so he must have a decent opinion of it as well. There has been some support as well since the markets have opened for this one as he has been supported from $10 to $7. In the “all in” markets for the Derby he is currently around the $14 mark – looks like a nice price. He won’t be this price if he wins this weekend here.

Caerless Choice (2) is trained by Paul Messara at Scone. He is on trial here for the first time over the 2000 metres but I think he will be settled off them and coming with a barnstorming late run.

I am tipping another roughie here for your exotics – Peter John (9) who is around the $25 mark. This one is trained by John Sargeant and each year John brings a lightly raced one to Queensland who turns out to be a decent stayer and competitive. He won well at Gosford last start in a BM60 race when carrying 60 kilograms. I will be watching this one with interest this weekend to see how he runs in preparation for the longer races that are coming up in the next few weeks.

Selections: 1-14-3-2 rough chance 9

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Early Quaddie (Races 1 to 4 NSW TAB only)

5,6,8 / 2,7,8 / 2,3,5 / 1,2,6 - cost is $81 for $1

Quadrella (races 5 to 8)

1,2,3,14 / 2,3,6,7 / 1,5,7,8 / 1,3,14 - cost is $192 to $1

Small Quaddie (races 5 to 8)

1,2 / 2,3,7 / 5,7,8 / 1,14 - cost is $36 to $1

Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8)

1,14 / 2,7 / 5,8 / 1,14 - cost is $16 to $1

Treble (races 6 to 8)

2,3,6,7 / 1,5,7,8 / 1,3,14 - cost is $48 to $1

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The tipping competition between Sky Racing’s Josh Fleming and Winno will continue this week. It is a fierce competition, however Winno leads 2 -0 at this stage. Make sure you check our tips and the terms of the competition on Facebook this weekend.

Josh has been tasked with the terms of the competition this week as he feels I have rigged it over the first two weeks!

To be fair we have both tipped 4 winners over the first two weeks – I am sure the banter will continue again this weekend on an open card at Doomben.

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Jockey Challenge

This week it like a win to the NSW jockey Kerrin McEvoy – he has a strong book of rides.

Jeff Lloyd as usual has some nice chances as well. If you want to back a roughie Opie Bosson could be some value if he gets any luck with some of his rides.

Good luck and good punting!

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