WINNO'S WINNERS: EAGLE FARM, MAY 27 - PART 2

By Darren Winningham | Friday, May 26, 2017

PART 2

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.

Race 5 Mullins Lawyers Grand Prix Stakes (Group 3)

This is the opening race of the Quadrella.

This is the traditional lead up to the Queensland Derby to be held in two weeks time. We don’t always see the Derby winner win this and I will be looking for something flashing late that may be one to follow for the Derby.

I have been pretty vocal about the Stephen Autridge & Jamie Richards trained Shocking Luck (5) who I did declare for the Derby a few weeks ago in this blog. This weekend he has been smashed since the early markets have opened, being backed from $4 into $3.00. He looks the winner but will they really want a tough run here with his ultimate grand finale the Derby in two weeks time?

I am going to be brave here and tip against him. This is something I am not confident in doing but I am going to go with the local horse, trained by Brian Smith, Order Again (9) presently at $6. Look the run behind Shocking Luck at Doomben was eye catching to say the least. Cassidy got off the gelding and was happy with the run and said wait till we meet him next time. He loves a heavy track, he has won at Eagle Farm and he has that wily veteran trainer Brian Smith in his corner – get out of my way I am knocking the bookmakers off their stand on this one!

The James Cummings trained Prized Icon (1) has been racing consistently in Group 1 and 2 races in recent starts. He is a quality colt and, I tell you what, if either of the two I’ve already mentioned are looking for an easy victory this weekend ... this one will test them both. Blake Shinn is back aboard here this week. Look out punters!

Chris Waller has had a mortgage on this race in recent years with three of the last four winners being trained by him. This year he has two runners engaged (another was an early scratching) and both all have good chances. Waller’s best chance is Veladero (3) and has the services of Hugh Bowman. This one will love the heavy or shifting track – do not be concerned. With Waller’s record in the race this one must be respected.

Darren Weir has brought Volatile Mix (2) north after his recent win in the South Australian Derby (Group 1) over 2500metres. He is fit, proven at the distance and will not be bothered by the heavy conditions. Agenuine chance at odds here.

Selections: 9-5-1-3 rough chance 2

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Race 6 Glenogan Park Stakes (Group 3)

A fillies and mares race here at Group level over 1300 metres.

This could be a toss of the coin ... or just put the numbers in a paper bag and pull a couple out!

It really is a tough race to bet with any confidence and who knows what the track will be like after five races coming into this.

I think that Eckstein (14), trained by Kurt Goldman in Goulbourn, showed enough over the summer in Queensland. I thought the run at the Gold Coast in the Magic Millions Guineas was convincing when she had no luck and was, I think, a good thing beaten. I know that she has no “heavy” form but she has won 2 from 2 on slow tracks and down in weight here I think she is a genuine contender at around the $10 mark each way. Her last run at Scone over an unsuitable 1100 metres carrying 60 kilograms. She drew wide, settled at the rear of the field and made a run late to be beaten around 4 lengths. I think that here at Eagle Farm (where she has a win on the board) she will be ready to win this race!

The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott trained Miss Debutante (15) did win the race that Eckstein (14) was beaten in at Scone. Eckstein (14) meets this filly 7 kilograms better for that defeat but, as you all know, Gai has a knack of producing a special one over the Brisbane Winter Carnival each year. I am copping the tip with Tommy Berry staying on her here.. Don’t be worried either about a heavy track. She has had some trials and jump outs at Randwick on heavy going and has shown she can handle it. Since the markets opened she has been seriously backed by punters firming dramatically from $14 to $9.

Sold For Song (9) has been out of sorts since she won the 2016 Daybreak Lover here over 1400 metres on a bog track. She will appreciate the wet going this weekend. Astute Toowoomba trainer Kevin Kemp has made two vital changes this weekend – she races with the pacifiers off for the first time and he has reunited jockey Jimmy Orman with the mare this weekend. Jimmy has a special affiliation with her and has ridden her ten times for 3 wins and 4 placings. She does get back and will storm home late but her last few runs at the Gold Coast and then at Doomben demonstrated that she is knocking on the door and is close to a win – this weekend maybe the day!

Godolphin has the early favourite in the race with Raiment (8) who won the James Carr (Group 3) race at Randwick on a bottomless heavy track. Can she handle this unique Eagle Farm surface this weekend. Let’s just wait and see.

There are two others worthy of mention here. They are Miss Cover Girl (1), who comes off a Group 2 race at Doomben last start. She does love this circuit and may just sneak a place. The other one is Egyptian Symbol (3) who ran awesome first up at Morphettville in the Group 1 UBET Classic. Again she has good second up form but dubious form on heavy surfaces in races. She has won trials and jump outs on the heavy but just has no race form in the going. She is a genuine chance here as well.

Local trainer Chris Anderson flies the flag here for the Queenslanders with Mystic Opal (10) who resumed here a month ago with a stunning performance. She will probably be some nice odds here if you fancy her. Larry Cassidy has a wonderful record on the four year old mare with six rides, four wins and a second on her. She is stepping up in grade here but probably deserves a crack at this class of race.

Selections: 14-15-9-8 rough chances 1, 3 & 18

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Race 7 2017 Darley Kingsford Smith Cup (Group 1)

This race is tough – extra tough. You may need to take the field for your Quaddie as it might be a case of a rough result this year.

The New Zealand runner Start Wondering (7) has been running well in Group 1 races in New Zealand consistently. His record of 20 starts for 10 wins and 5 placings is hard to go past here. The soft track will suit the six year old gelding and jockey Johnathan Parkes has a great record on him with 7 rides for 3 wins and 2 seconds. I think he is a great each way bet around $25.

Chris Waller has Counterattack (5) nominated for the race. He is another that likes wet tracks. He won a barrier trial in late March before stepping out two weeks later in the Group 3 Hall Mark when narrowly beaten by Redzel, who went on to win the 2017 Doomben 10,000. Counterattack (5) made a gallant attack late but just missed in that race. Counterattack can be an enigma, but he had an important gear change last start with blinkers back on for that race. He retains them here this weekend.

Derryn (11) - (named after me) - was gallant in defeat in the Doomben 10,000. This three year old colt loves the wet and heavy tracks. He will be in this for a long way. I note a jockey change this start with Mark Zahra being booked to ride. He has a 100% strike rate on him with 1 ride for 1 win. Maybe this could change his luck this weekend?

Now you will remember I said this race can turn up a rough result and the winner can be a massive price. Well, here goes if you want a roughie. Jungle Edge (8) – you will think I am bonkers – but here is my reasoning.....

But before I go into the reasons, it would be unfair not to mention my patsy in recent weeks in our tipping competition Josh Fleming (Sky Channel) did tip this one on top last week at Doomben at around $7. Well done mate! I am following you in this week.

Back to Jungle Edge – this one leads, loves the wet, as a matter of fact the heavier the better! He has been a great performer in Group 1 races lately and I he may just get out in front here and lead this lot all the way like he did at Doomben last week. If he rails around the turn and the others go wide and he keeps going, I can see this one winning at huge odds –currently around $15. I think the local media will be racing to the record books to see when recent regular rider Kevin Forrester rode his last Group 1 winner. It will make a great story I reckon if this one can win – not only for the jockey but for Cranbourne based trainer Mick Bell. You must pay particular attention to Ken Forrester’s riding record on this six year old gelding with 5 rides, 2 wins and 2 thirds.

Black Heart Bart (1) has blinkers back on this week. Personally I think he is a duffer in the wet – but he is the class runner of the field. Clearly Innocent (6) was superb winning the Luskin Star (Listed Race) at Scone last start in amazing fashion. Trained by Kris Lees he is one that needs to be watched although I think the WFA conditions will not suit this him this weekend – but I am confident about this one in the Stradbroke in a couple of weeks time. In fact why not jump on at the early price of $10 that is on offer in the early markets! I will be watching with some expectations here this to see if he can handle the Eagle Farm surface.

Selections: 5-7-11-8 rough chances 1 & 6

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Race 8 2017 Fred Best Classic (Group 3)

This last race is a lottery!

Good luck if you need to win to get out of trouble here.

I really think we should consider the Gold Coast Guineas form for this race. In recent years that form has held up nicely in this contest. So with that in mind I am struggling to split two that will revel in the expected heavy going..

They are Tessera (8) who has been well supported from $11 to $7.50 and I Thought So (13) who is amazing odds at $26. Let me on Con Searle right now!

These two had amazing runs at the Gold Coast. I think the track did not suit either of them and getting onto the larger Eagle Farm circuit this weekend ... on a heavy surface ... I really think that if they can handle the track they are serious contenders over the 1400 metres.

Now in saying that – you could not have missed the dominant performance of Good Standing (1) at Doomben a fortnight again. When jockey Damian Browne said go he really did show an amazing turn of foot an made the opposition look second class. Again I am not too sure about the heavy track and shifting surface here this weekend but he does have some class.

Dreams Aplenty (5) is the local hope trained by John Zielke. He will be at the track super confident. He always is upbeat about his horse’s chances and he should be when you review the performances of this Dream Ahead gelding. His form on heavy tracks and at Eagle Farm is impeccable – something that must be noted when doing the form here. Then you have jockey Tiffani Brooker booked again to ride him this weekend – 100% strike rate on him with 4 rides for 4 wins and he gave Tiffani her first Group winner. Can she get two consecutive Group wins on this one? She will be in front for a long way and if they are leading and winning this may just be the critical factor in this last race.

Now if you want to play wide and look for some rough chances for your exotic bets I can strongly suggest you take a serious look at Calanda (7). He gets his first look at the Eagle Farm circuit this weekend but he has some serious heavy and wet track form. Do not let this one get under your guard at around $14. Then you have the locally trained River Racer (14) who seems to have a knack in showing up in these races at big prices and knocking over my trifectas and first 4 bets, so I am noting that he loves the Eagle Farm track, he likes the soft and heavy conditions and South African jockey Robbie Fradd seems to get the best out of him at a large price – so he ticks a few boxes this weekend. He is in the markets around $16 at the moment but normally will get out further on race day – so it may pay to sit back and wait for the price to blow further on this one.

Selections: 8-13-1-7 rough chances 4,5 & 14

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Early Quaddie (Races 1 to 4 NSW TAB only)

2,6,7,10 / 1,2,7 / 1,7,19 / 3,8,9 - cost is $108 for $1

Quadrella (races 5 to 8)

1,3,5,9 / 8,9,14,15,18 / 5,7,8,11 / 1,7,8,13 - cost is $320 to $1

Small Quaddie (races 5 to 8)

1,5,9 / 9,14,15 / 5,8,11 / 7,8,13 - cost is $81 to $1

Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8)

5,9 / 14,15,18 / 5,11 / 8,13 - cost is $24 to $1

Treble (races 6 to 8)

8,9,14,15,18 / 5,7,8,11 /1,7,8,13 - cost is $80 to $1

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The tipping competition between Sky Racing’s Josh Fleming and Winno will continue this week.

It is a fierce competition, however Winno leads 4 -0 at this stage.

Make sure you check our tips and the terms of the competition on Facebook this weekend.

I think this week I will let him set the conditions of the tipping competition – however, if, sorry when, I win I expect him to man up and attend the Media Room after the last race and don a NSW Blues jersey!

If by some miracle he manages to get one back on me – he should still attend and bring his QLD Origin jersey with two holes in it so he can fit both heads out and get a photo with me in my NSW jersey!

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Jockey Challenge

With State of Origin upon us next week it is only natural that I will be tipping a NSW based jockey in the jockeys challenge – so let’s get on Blake Shinn and hope for the best. If you don’t follow State of Origin then you could have a saver on New Zealand jockey Opie Bosson who also has some nice rides here.

Good luck and good punting!

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