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By David Fowler | Monday, November 6, 2017

It's a rare occurrence when faith rather than fact leads me to my Melbourne Cup selection.

And Humidor (3) will carry my cash.

Readers over the years will recall my insistence that a 3200m profile is paramount to the Cup analysis.

But Humidor is in virgin territory regarding the distance.

So what sort of faith knocks out the fact that Humidor is untried at the two miles.

If you believe Winx Is a champion...and I think we all do....Humidor then ran out of his skin to run her to a long neck in the Cox Plate.

An outstanding performance behind an outstanding horse.

We have to hope that wasn't the "Everest" performance, in other words the Cox Plate second wasn't the peak of the campaign.

Enter Darren Weir, a master trainer who will have Humidor as well as he can be for the Melbourne Cup assignment.

And worth remembering that Flemington has been the venue for Humidor's two biggest triumphs, the Group One Australian Cup and Group One Makybe Diva.

Marmelo (5) and Wall Of Fire (20) represent the main dangers.

Both appeal as promising European stayers and at least have had one local run in their Cup preparations.

And there was plenty to like about those performances in the Caulfield Cup (Marmelo) and Herbert Power (Wall Of Fire )

Hartnell (1) makes up my first four.

Hartnell is a forgotten horse. It's worth remembering he has consistently been cast in the shadow of Winx and that says something in itself.

And his Cup run was solid enough last year, only peaking over the last 100 metres before running third to Almandin.

And as the defending champion, Almandin (1) deserves a special comment.

He rises 4.5kg on last years victory which won't make it easy and the riding engagement is not really to my liking either!

For those playing wider in trifectas and first fours include Almandin (2) Johannes Vermeer (7) Max Dynamite (9) Big Duke (13) Boom Time (15) Amelie's Star (23) and Cismontaine (24).

My long held policy sticks with NOT including European stayers racing at Flemington for the first time so out goes Tiberian (4) Red Cardinal (6) Us Army Ranger (14) Nakeeta (18) Thomas Hobson (21) and Rekindling (22).

And these CAN'T run in the top four... Bondi Beach (8) Ventura Storm (10) Wicklow Brave (12) Gallante (16) Libran (17) and Single Gaze (19)

Here's a first four betting strategy

To win:- 1, 3, 5, 20 / to run second 1, 3, 5, 20 / to run third and fourth 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 15, 20, 23 and 24.

A $100 investment would realise 11% of the dividend.

Good luck.

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David Fowler
David Fowler
Queensland's Own www.horseracingonly.com.au Queensland's Best