WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, NOVEMBER 25
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, November 23, 2017
DOOMBEN RACES SATURDAY 25 NOVEMBER 2017
Well, whilst everyone was getting a wet arse at Doomben last week I was sitting in the warm and comfortable environment of Seagulls Club at Tweed Heads in the wonderful state of New South Wales.
Not only was I warm, comfortable and having a great time I was watching jockeys come in covered in mud and grass from the track. One thing I did notice was that Editor and Chief of horseracingonly.com.au - Mr Graham Potter - was not down on the rail like he normally is taking the up close photos that we are renowned for. Instead he ran to the high hills and sought refuge in the grand stand - clearly a man of common sense and practicality! And somehow the photo quality didn’t seem to suffer at all!
This weekend I will be at the track looking to see what happens on this nine race program. The track is currently rated as SOFT and the rail is scheduled to be out 5 metres for the entire circuit.
There is rain forecast for later in the week. This may place pressure on the meeting continuing as it did last weekend - so let's all hope that we have some warm conditions and no rain for the rest of the week so we can have a full day of racing in Brisbane.
Just one final reminder - there is only a month before Santa arrives in Brisbane, so I hope you all have been shopping and getting gifts for your family and friends.
Oh yes - and do not forget me! A Tatts Betting voucher will suffice!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to raceday, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
***************************************************************************************************
Race 1
Open Book (1) is a large gelding trained by Kelly Doughty who won impressively leading all the way at Doomben a fortnight ago on debut. He has tremendous speed for such a large horse. I think that he will be hard to beat again this weekend.
The Steven O'Dea trained Grim Reaper (2) was backed into favourite on debut when beaten by Open Book (1). I cannot see him reversing the placings here this weekend - but watch for a more competitive run as I think he would have benefited from the hit out.
Tony Gollan trains Rock N Sol (3). I suppose the lead should be taken with Jim Byrne riding Rock N Sol (3) and the fact that he had barrier trial last week - watch for any moves in the market for the chances of this one.
Selections: 1-2-3-4
**************************************************************************************************
Race 2
This is a very hard race.
The best wet tracker in the race is the Scott Morrisey trained Perilous Love (11) - if the track is heavy this is the one to be on. She loves the wet!
However, if there is no rain and the track is good you cannot go past the Gollan Racing trained Don't Doubt Da Wife (14) who was very impressive winning over this course and distance last start.
Toby Edmonds has Locus (7) engaged here. After winning his last two starts at Ipswich he is looking to step up to weekend city class races. Both wins at Ipswich were on rain affected tracks so there will be no trouble with him getting across a wet surface.
Monasterio (8) ran second last start to Don't Doubt Da Wife (14) after settling last and coming home late. This weekend with the rail out so far I think he will need to be ridden closer to the speed, however, his pattern of racing is normally top get back and come home late. There is one upside to this Chris Waller runner and that is he is proven on a wet track with 3 starts for 2 wins and 1 second.
Selections: 14-11-7-8 rough chance 5
**************************************************************************************************
Race 3
Aqua Vite (8) is another Scott Morrisey runner who has a serious chance. This could result in a unique race to race double for the Morrisey team based on the Gold Coast if they get any luck this weekend.
Last start Aqua Vite (8) was drawn wide and ran a solid race beaten under 1 length by Snapper, who is his stablemate. Again this weekend he has drawn poorly in barrier 15 but, with that run under his belt over the mile, I think that he is well placed here.
Rob Heathcote’s team has been in sensational form in recent weeks. He is well represented in this race by Mehmeto (6) and Nilette (13). Mehmeto (6) comes off a nice win 3 weeks ago at the Gold Coast and has the services of Damian Browne. He should be considered as he normally races close to the speed and this weekend I think you may want to be on the speed with the rail out so far.
Nilette (13) drops back in grade and has the services of a senior rider (Jim Byrne). This Snitzel mare has some average form over the mile with 4 starts for no placings. I still think that she will get the mile and again has some solid runs on wet tracks.
Revaldor (7) is a $51 chance – I think they are kidding! The wet track form with this Bruce Brown runner is fairly solid and he does love the mile distance. I think he is a genuine knock out chance in what is an open field.
Selections: 8-13-7-6 rough chance 16
**************************************************************************************************
Race 4
This is a pretty solid three year old race.
We have another Heathcote runner featuring again in Zofonic Dancer (1) who has won all three career race starts and each time has been ridden by Matthew McGillivray. This week he drops back from a great win last start over the mile back to 1350 metres. He has had a six week freshen up for this run. I am just not too sure how he will fair here this weekend – but they say winning form is good form!
Miss Miao (6) trained by Garnett Taylor resumed last start at Doomben and brained them at the massive odds of $20. Looking back now at the trials leading up to the run she was massive overs and I should have found her. This weekend she is second up and she really has poor form second up form .. but I will gamble she will find something.
Enterprise Moss (5) won first up at Ipswich on a heavy track – so there is no concern with this colt on a wet track. He finished a close second to Miss Miao (6) last start and I think will strip fitter for that run. His chances will be further enhanced if the track is wet.
Another with a chance that must be considered is Boom Boom Epic (9) who resumed with a nice win at Ipswich and then put a solid effort in at the Sunshine Coast last start when she led and was run down late second up over 1400 metres. She has a complete failure on a heavy track to her record but that day from memory I think the track was bottomless – so it may be worthwhile to overlook that effort.
Selections: 6-5-1-9
**************************************************************************************************
Race 5
This is a great sprint race with a number of runners resuming here.
There has been some serious support for the Steven O’Dea trained Colinelle (12) who has been solidly backed from $7 to $4.80. She was very good last preparation running in some higher class races with better opposition than she meets here this weekend.
I have gone back through her form and found some solid form on slow and heavy tracks. This does not appear in the published form guides, however, I am pretty confident that the racing surface will not impede his chances this weekend. I note the barrier trial win on 31 October as well – this looked like solid hit out and he will be right in this race.
O’Dea has another runner resuming from an 80 week spell – She’s Miss Devine (9). He has been entrusted to get this runner back to her former glory. Again she has had some nice trails in the lead up to this debut run in Brisbane for her new trainer.
Chris Munce Racing has Wicked Intent (3) resuming here as well. He has had the benefit of a barrier trial two weeks ago at Doomben which he won. Interesting that Munce has gone for his former apprentice Michael Murphy to ride the stallion here. With the 3 kilogram claim he really does look well placed and there should be some speed in the race. I hope that he sits off them and comes late here. However, in previous starts he has been known to lead or sit on the speed – if he jumps away cleanly from barrier 12 maybe this will be the tactics this weekend.
Khalama (10) is second up after a 12 week break. I thought the first up run was amazing and she was very unlucky. Again this Gollan Racing runner has had a number of trials over 1000 metres. The last trail was very good and she won this in a solid time. She has a tremendous second up record with 3 starts with 2 wins. I think with some luck she should be in the finish as well.
As I said this race is difficult to assess as a number of the runners are resuming, however, they all look like they are ready to perform at their best.
Selections: 12-3-10-9 rough chance 7
**************************************************************************************************
Race 6
Well this is the weekly Lottery! The race over 2200 metres and it would have to be the first leg of the Quaddie this weekend!
I am going for Three Points (10) who won last start here and goes up in grade this weekend.
The danger is Concessions (3) who is visiting from NSW after a nice win at Hawkesbury last start. Luke Dittman takes the ride on the Tickets mare and she also has some solid form on wet surfaces so do not fear a wet track here this weekend.
Karakabeel (4) made all the running last start and was narrowly beaten in the last stride. This Zabeel gelding, to be ridden again by Tegan Harrison, could just get away again with a bold run in front and hold off the challengers late.
Other chances to consider are Toni May (7) and the lightly raced Kirini (16) who is second up here. She does run well second up and on wet tracks.
Overall though, it may be necessary to take the field in the first leg this weekend in your Quaddie!
Selections 10-3-16-4 rough chance 7
**************************************************************************************************
Race 7
A Listed race for fillies and mares over the 1200 metres – and it has drawn a very competitive field!
Where do we start here? Maybe just start from the top and work our way down!
David Pfieffer has Denmagic (1) sent north from NSW after racing very consistently down there. With the drop in class and the set weight conditions of this race she does look well placed here. She has had one previous start here at Doomben in the 2016 Fred Best Classic where she was a solid sixth finishing 3.5 lengths back when beaten by horses like Counterattack and Takedown. That form equates well here.
Our Beebee (6) is trained in Toowoomba by Rex Lipp and is third up this weekend. She likes soft surfaces and has a unblemished third up record with one start for one win. Jim Byrne is reunited with the mare this weekend and I am certain Jim is looking to consolidate his recent good form by posting a win in a Listed Race.
Sylpheed (8) I thought produced an excellent run first up at Doomben a fortnight ago. Again another runner who will handle the wet surface and I think on her Brisbane Winter Carnival form she is right in this race. This weekend Paul “Hammer” Hammersley takes the ride.
There is one here that keeps haunting me – I may just have the wrong read as well but I have to give her a mention. Of The Day (9) resumes here. I know she is up in grade dramatically and at the set weights is probably one you should overlook, however, I just cannot get the win out of my mind when she won at the Gold Coast back in August when she settled off the speed and swooped home late and won easy. This race will have some speed and maybe Tiffani Brooker can get her placed well enough to come home late and make a challenge.
Toby Edmonds’ second runner is Inspired Estelle (11) and she is second up here. She resumed on Melbourne Cup day at Doomben with a massive weight of 61.5 kilograms and won well. That run would have topped her off nicely for this run and she is sure to be improved from that outing. She has some very good form as well out of the Winter Carnival and again she will handle the wet track.
Rhyming (15) trained by Steve Tregea is one of those horses that just seems too pop up at the oddest moments – she is $36 this weekend and this is normally when she appears and causes grief to punters. Anthony Allen rides the mare who is first up this weekend – her chances will be enhanced if there is any deterioration in the track conditions.
Well there you have it – a tough and open race!
Selections: 8-11-6-1 rough chances 9 and 15
*****************************************************************************************************
Race 8
The 2017 Sky Racing Tattersall’s Recognition Stakes – Listed Race over 1350 metres.
Crack Me Up (9) resumed with a wonderful effort at Doomben 2 weeks ago when beaten by Brooklyn Storm who was also impressive in winning. On that occasion he carried 63 kilograms and this week he drops to 54 kilograms. He has some solid form on soft tracks as well and has an impeccable second up record – and he has drawn barrier one – so I am hoping he is ridden forward this week by Matthew McGillivray who retains the ride. In the past when he has raced on the speed he has been successful.
Gold Symphony (3) has made the trip north from Sydney for the Peter & Paul Snowden team. This Reward for Effort gelding has been working well and had a barrier trial two weeks ago at Randwick – the run was solid and if Kerrin McEvoy had let the brakes off he could have won the trial. He has drawn awkwardly in barrier 13, however, he has been racing in Sydney against some quality fields. The other theory that I always have is that some horses thrive when they come north and get the Queensland sun on their backs.
Sir Moments (5) was super first up storming home late – the extra distance and the conditions of the race will suit this Steven O’Dea runner. Brad Stewart takes over from the injured Jag Guthmann-Chester in the saddle this weekend.
The roughie of the race has to be With A Promise (13), trained by Ben Currie and to be ridden by Jimmy Orman. I think this mare always races better when she gets down in the weights. This weekend she is on the minimum against more seasoned opposition, however, from barrier 8, I expect her to be placed in the first three of the race. If the track is favouring the leaders on Saturday this could be a distinct advantage.
Torgersen (12) ran over a mile last start – I don’t think the mile is the best distance for this runner. Back to 1350 metres this weekend he may be competitive at some odds.
Too Good To Refuse (10) has been gelded since his last start – maybe losing his kegs will help him concentrate and Desleigh Forster may be able to get his best out of him.
Last runner I want to mention is a reserve – do not be surprised if he gets into the field (but highly unlikely). If he does he may be one to cause a serious upset in this race. The runner is Spring Tycoon (20) trained by Stuart Kendrick. This stallion handles all track conditions and is one who has had a 3 week break and always races well fresh.
One last shout out – I see Ryan “Wiggaloo” Wiggins has returned from his successful trip to Mauritius where he rode a number of winners. He partners Frespanol (6) a last start winner for the Tony Gollan yards. Welcome back to a quality jockey and a solid NSW supporter as well!
Selections: 9-3-5-13 rough chances 10, 12 and 20
***************************************************************************************************
Race 9
The last race of the day – I will be ready to put the feet up and have a rest about now.
Manaya (8) can be an enigma, however, her win last start at Doomben looked like she was back to her best . I am prepared to gamble this weekend that she can go on with that form from a great win 3 weeks ago here. Just a word of warning she is not a fan of wet tracks!
The roughie for mine is Drumbeat’s Choice (2) who has a striking second up record with two wins from three starts. He has drawn nicely in barrier 3. This weekend he may just struggle with the rail out 5 metres however he gets a 3 kilogram weight relief for apprentice jockey Stephanie Lacy – this will help his chances.
Amanaat (1) has strung four wins together for the Ben Currie stable. Apprentice Michael Murphy has ridden the gelding his last two wins will be hungry to make it a hat trick. The weight relief for Murphy's claim gets him in well and although he is drawn barrier 10 he is multidimensional and can race forward or just off the speed. I just hope he doesn’t get caught out on a limb 3 or 4 wide for the entire run.
St Hilary (14) is looking for four wins in a row. She has some solid form on heavy tracks so a wet track will not bother her. She has drawn wide in barrier 13. She likes to race forward so this may cause some issues in the run for her.
The race has a fair few early scratching so if there are any more the wide barriers may not be such a concern for a number of these runners.
Selections: 8-14-1-2
*************************************************************************************************
Early Quaddie (NSW TAB race 2 to 5)
7,11,14 / 6,7,8,13 / 1,5,6,9 / 3,9,10,12 - cost is $192 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3,4,10,16 / 1,6,8,11 / 3,5,9,13 / 1,2,8,14 - cost is $256 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3,10,16 / 6,8,11 / 3,9,13 / 1,8,14 - cost is $81 to $1
Silly Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3,10 / 8,11 / 3,9 / 2,8,14 - cost is $24 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
1,6,8,11 / 3,5,9,13 / 1,2,8,14 - cost is $64 to $1
Jockey’s Challenge
Well I have a dilemma – I have Jim Byrne, Jeff Lloyd and Brad Stewart all finishing around 8 points. One point apart from each other – this could be a battle supreme and the result could come down to scratchings on the day.
Jim Byrne and Brad Stewart seem to have a solid book of rides so maybe we should have something on both of them.
Winno v Josh Fleming
The Winno and Josh Fleming battle had a reprieve last weekend. That normally spells disaster for me – as Josh normally backs up well after a spell! Be sure to follow our tips this weekend on Facebook – I am sure that we will have differing opinions as usual!
HRO wishes Josh Fleming a Happy 33rd Birthday for Thursday
More articles
|