WINNO'S WINNERS: CAULFIELD, FEBRUARY 24
By Darren Winningham | Friday, February 23, 2018
CAULFIELD – BLUE DIAMOND DAY SATURDAY 24 FEBRUARY 2018
Well the feature racing is at Caulfield this weekend – with the Blue Diamond, the Futurity and the Oakleigh Plate making up three consecutive Group 1 races from races 6 to 8.
The track was rated 'Good' at the time of writing and the rail will be out 3.0 metres the entire course this weekend.
I love the Caulfield track when it is racing true. I like to back horses that have won here – or have performed well here in the past. This weekend with a very good support program of Group 2 and Group 3 races the fields are very competitive and you should get value for money on your bets.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
I have gone away from the favourites here.
I like the Anthony Freedman trained Bedford (9) who has won his last two starts here and looks well placed again in this grade.
Selections: 9-8-1-2
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Race 2
Astoria (1) was good first up so you have to include him amongst your top three.
I just like the run of Belfast (6) last start at Morphettville. I think that it will place the colt in good stead for this race. Around the $20 mark I think this is great value.
The other one that must be considered is Rellson (8) who performed very well over the Melbourne Cup Carnival in a couple of races. The gelding is second up here and he has only ever won one race and it was second up! There is $12 on offer about this runner – so good each way value.
Selections: 6-8-1-13 rough chance 3
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Race 3
Overshare (1) was a very good run last start in the Group 3 Manfred Stakes. Trained by team Hawkes I think he is a good chance.
I Did It Again (6) ran fourth in the same race where Overshare (1) finished second. It probably just peaked on his run around the 100 metres and will derive some benefit from that hit out and is sure to strip fitter.
Selections: 1-6-2-4
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Race 4
Smart Coupe (2) is my on top selection here. I think the step up to 1400 metres will suit this runner.
Counterplay (1) is a nice filly trained in South Australia by Phillip Stokes. I think she is the likely danger.
Earth Angel (7) who is part owned by radio host Alan Jones will strip better here second up as well.
Selections: 2-1-7-9 rough chance 11
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Race 5
I think there is a nice quinella here between Silent Sedition (1) and Jester Halo (9).
These two runners have been performing consistently. The top weight likes this track and has a sound record second up. The first up run was decent so look for an improved performance here with Craig Williams in the saddle.
Selections: 1-9-6-7
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Race 6
The Futurity Stakes – the first of the Group 1 races on the program.
I am tipping Mr Sneaky (6) here at the nice each way odds of $12. This Anthony Freedman runner has an exceptional third up record. The run last start in the CF Orr (Group 1) Stakes last start was too good to miss! Caught five wide and no luck – look for him to be ridden with cover this week and watch him get clear in the final 100 metres and smash them late!
I have gone for some value in my second runner as well – Sovereign Nation (5) who resumes after a 13-week spell after a poor campaign in Western Australia. The Hayes and Dabernig team looks like it is set for a solid few weeks over the Carnival and this runner always runs well fresh. Maybe Regan Bayliss can notch another Group winner up this weekend – the odds on this runner are silly with some betting agencies offering $31.
Darren Weir has a number of runners. I think the best of his chances will be ridden by Craig Williams – Brave Smash (3) who was first up in the CF Orr Stakes and who flew home late to be narrowly beaten by Hartnell.
Selections: 6-5-3-10 rough chance 11
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Race 7
The feature race on the program – the 2018 Blue Diamond for the two-year olds at Group 1 level.
I have struggled to get the form lined up for this race. I think it may be an upset result, however, there have been some solid performances by a number of these runners in the lead up races.
I have narrowed it down to seven runners – maybe worth throwing them all in a trifecta and first 4 and playing a little wide.
Now I am not sure if a trainer has ever quinellaed the Blue Diamond. I am thinking that Tony McEvoy, the winning trainer of the 2018 Magic Millions with Sunlight, may notch another feature 2-year-old race in 2018! Maybe jockey Luke Currie could join him in the unique piece of history!
I love the run of Oohood (16) last start at Caulfield! She was over 1100 metres, settled too far back, was then caught five wide and then made a sustained long run flashing at them late. If she gets some luck this weekend and can get an unchecked run in the straight she is going to be right in this! Great odds on offer as well at $9 – drawn handy compared with some of the more fancied runners in barrier 10 – she will do me each way!
The stable mate is Kinky Boom (11) who is a Spirit of Boom sired filly. She was dominant three weeks ago on debut in the Inglis here over 1200 metres. McEvoy has chosen to keep her fresh and my Melbourne spies say she has been putting in at track work. With big race jockey Craig Williams aboard – this looks another good chance for the McEvoy team.
The topweight is Long Leaf (1) and you cannot have a better record than three from three against your name as a two-year-old. David Hayes and Tom Dabernig put the polish on this one and they have elected to put Kerrin McEvoy back aboard this week for the feature race. This Fastnet Rock colt has been in great form and has drawn handy in barrier 7 and cannot be overlooked.
Godolphin has Plague Stone (8) engaged and despite still being a maiden he gives the impression on his first two career runs that the 1200 metres will be right up his alley and he should be in the placings.
The others that I like who have all been treated poorly at the barrier draw are ... from the top:
The Grahame Begg trained and undefeated Written Tycoon colt Written By (2).
Enbihaar (10) who is and undefeated Magnus filly from the Hayes and Dabernig team.
Yet another Hayes and Dabernig runner in Ennis Hill (13) rounds out my top seven.
It is a very open and tough race – as usual the one that get the uninterrupted run will be the winner. As usual after the race we will have the hard luck and sob stories, however, it will be the one that is the best trained and best ridden that will be victorious in 2018!
For our sake let’s hope it is a team McEvoy horse!
Selections: 16-11-1-8 rough chances 2,10 and 13
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Race 8
The last Group 1 race on the program – the 2018 Oakleigh Plate.
Again, a very open field with many chances – but I do like one here as a stand out – Catchy (17).
This Hayes & Dabernig trained filly is drawn midfield in barrier 9. She has an impeccable record here at the track with 6 starts 3 wins and 3 placings. She loves the track! She races well fresh as well and I see that Craig Williams has been working hard to ride her at the allocated 51.5 kilograms – a massive sacrifice. I think these are a few boxes ticked here so she is my on top selection!
The stablemate Fuhryk (6) is another who races well first up and does appreciate the Caulfield circuit.
She ran a very good race in her campaign in Western Australia when beaten narrowly by Viddora in the Winterbottom Stakes (Group 1). With the handicap conditions she gets in well here.
This could be a unique quinella for the Hayes and Dabernig stable! In fact, with any luck they could manage to jag all three Group 1 winners on the program!
The Team Snowden trained Russian Revolution (2) is a class sprinter and his two barrier trials suggest he is forward and ready to perform to a high level in this race. He has a victory to his credit here in 2016 and has a Group 1 victory under his belt. He must be considered.
The other two runners I like have both drawn poorly – Snitty Kitty (8) in barrier 18 and the Sydney trained She Will Reign (16) in barrier 17.
Snitty Kitty (8) is a track and distance specialist so I am throwing her in for fourth – but she will need some serious luck!
Brisbane based jockey Ronnie Stewart has headed south to reunite with Savanna Armour (7). This Chris Meagher trained mare always does go well fresh and does love the Caulfield track. I think she will not lead this lot as there is some serious speed in this race so Ronnie will need some luck from barrier 20. However, we all know how he can ride a long-priced winner – especially if they are overlooked in the markets – and this runner fits that bill.!
Selections: 17-6-2-8 rough chances 7 and 16
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Race 9
Well we have made it to the last race!
I think that we all saw the great effort from Hartnell (1) when the Godolphin runner resumed from a spell.
A dominating performance he looks like he has come back bigger and better this time and hopefully will avoid Winx going past him and giving him wind burn in the following weeks.
Gailo Chop (2) is the obvious danger and loves this track and second up has exceptional form (7 starts – 4 wins) for the Darren Weir team.
If you want a roughie to knock these two off maybe look at Harlem (6) who finished second to Gailo Chop (2) last start ... and is trained by Hayes & Dabernig!
Selections: 1-2-6-5 rough chances 9
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Jockey Challenge
Looks like a battle between Craig Williams and Damian Lane. I am going for Craig Williams – big day race rider and he loves riding the Caulfield track.
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
1,6,8,15 / 1,2,6 / 1,2,7 / 1,9 - cost is $72 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3,5,6,10 / 1,8,11,16 / 2,6,8,17 / 1,2,6 - cost is $192 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3,5,6 / 1,11,16 / 17 / 1,2 - cost is $18 to $1
Treble (races 8 to 10)
1,8,11,16 / 2,6,8,17 / 1,2,6 - cost is $48 to $1
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And for those looking st Sydney.
ROSEHILL BEST BETS
R3 - Neutrality
R4 - Teaspoon
R5 - Daysee Doom
R7 - Pierata
R8 -Perizada
Good luck and good punting!
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