WINNO'S WINNERS: GRAFTON, JULY 8, 2018

By Darren Winningham | Saturday, July 7, 2018

GRAFTON CUP CARNIVAL 2018 -DAY 2

Day two is the traditional “South Grafton Cup” this year sponsored by Toyota Grafton.

The track is currently rated “SOFT” and the rail is out 3 metres from the winning post to the 1600 metres and then 3 metres from the 1200 metres to the winning post.

Well it is time – a seven race program – massive fields.

Here we go.

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.

Race 1

We start the day with a massive field.

I cannot decide between the Tony Newing runner Dia Vernon (2) and the Dwayne Schmidt runner Fleeting Princess (3) - trained locally. Dia Vernon (2) has the addition of blinkers this start after a solid run at Scone last start with Jake Hull aboard. For this run Matt McGuren is in the saddle and this team have already tasted success at the Carnival on Thursday taking out the John Carlton Cup with King Lear.

Fleeting Princess (3) is part owned by a few of the Karakatanis family who thrive when they bring horses to Grafton over the Carnival. This filly was solid in a first up run at Hawkesbury over 1100 metres. She will strip fitter and watch out for any support in the ring for her. That could mean she is near unbeatable!

Sweet Kiara (9) is trained locally by Danielle Campbell and is to be ridden by Leah Kilner – the girls combine here to try and crack a winner! This filly made her debut at Grafton and ran a nice third. She then went to Lismore second up and just didn’t fire. Maybe it was just the second up blues. I think that you can look for an improved performance here on Sunday.

Heavens Star comes off a nice run over 900 metres at the Gold Coast when she was sent out favourite. She was powering home late and the extra distance here this week should see her come flying home late again. Matthew Palmer rides rarely but he loves this Grafton track and knows how to get one home. It will be good to catch up with him trackside as well.

I see that the CRJC Chief Executive Officer owns one in this race – No Doubt A Lady – trained by Dwayne Schmidt. She is third up here and drawn nicely in barrier 3 with Brooke Stower riding the filly. She will be a chance – and if a Grafton plunge occurs we know who started it!

Selections 2-3-9-6 rough chance 4

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Race 2

A class 2 race over the scamper of 1006 metres awaits us here!

Kota Flyer (2) from the Billy & Dale Healey stables makes the trek from the Sunshine Coast to Grafton for this race.I think I will have to talk Billy into entering Fashions on the Field as he always turns up to the races looking smart (after all he does rate himself as a sort!).

This Real Saga colt won on debut at Rockhampton impressively 13 weeks ago. Since then he has had a solid trial at Doomben and raced very well. Adam Sewell who normally rides for the stable will probably be happy to get aboard the colt after a 5-hour float trip with Billy Healey nagging him on how to ride him!

Cheat ‘M (3) is trained by Karen Owen and resumes after a 22-week spell and a stable change. The Choisir mare had a recent trial at Taree and won well on a soft track. Peter Graham is aboard for the mare’s resumption here and he will be throwing everything at her if she is anywhere close to them in the final 100 metres. There have been a few gear changes as well. I think that this should prove beneficial to the mare.

Anh Yeu Em (4) won on debut at Ballina on a big heavy track at $51. She led all the way on that occasion and could not be run down. Maybe the track conditions played a major factor in that win. I think she will probably lead again here – but this long straight at Grafton can be punishing and you need to be good to hold them off if you lead here.

Ayeteem (1) is trained at Wyong by Damien Lane who was very successful over the Carnival in 2017. He resumes here after 20 weeks. Whilst he has had no formal barrier trials he has raced well fresh previously.

Miss River Belle (6) is first up after 33 weeks. Tegan Harrison won on this mare back in Novemeber 2017 on a heavy track where she raced on the speed. She has drawn well in barrier 3 and I expect that she will be competitive here.

Stellar Power (7) is from the Bryan Dais stables in Brisbane. He had two solid trials before resuming at Beaudesert and leading before fading over the final 75 metres over 1200 metres. I think he will be better suited over the 1006 metres here. Jag Guthmann-Chester takes the ride and he has drawn well in barrier 6.

Selections 2-3-7-6 rough chances 1 & 4

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Race 3

A maiden plate over 1410 metres greets us for the third race.

Another Healey Racing representative here. Serlina (14) has drawn barrier 17 but she probably can settle back and make a run wide in the straight as she would do on her home track at the Sunshine Coast. She does face a tough test as she is only a two-year-old taking on the older maiden horses.

I like the Stirling Osland trained Indisputable (3) who ran a solid race first up at Hawkesbury on a heavy track. He then didn’t fire at Newcastle second up. I think third up here will see his chance to break his maiden duck with local jockey Ben Looker in the saddle for this run.

Caro Cavallo (2) is trained on the track by John Shelton and will be ridden by Luke “Sausage” Rolls. He has drawn poorly in barrier 18, however, from this start he should be able to settle midfield and Luke should be able to get a clear run entering the straight.

Weaponised (9) is trained by Neville Stewart. He was first up at the Gold Coast where ran well over 1200 metres. He then went back to 1000 metres at Ballina on a heavy track and was defeated by Anh Yeu Em (race 2). I think that he didn’t appreciate the drop back in distance and we will see an improved performance here over the 1410 metres.

Clearfield (11) is trained by Danny Bowen and despite only being placed 4 times in 22 starts she could fill a place at some odds.

There has been some early market support for the Jim Jarvis new stable horse Spender (6) who comes from Melbourne and has not started since December 2016. The six-year-old must have shown something on the track as there seems to be a level of confidence in the early markets that have been posted.

Selections 3-2-9-14 rough chances 6 and 14

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Race 4

Wow a tough race to start off the Quaddie – a field of 14 to go around with 18 nominations for the race.

Onslow (9) looks well placed here. He has had 3 weeks since his last run at Coffs Harbour. He will handle a slow track and of the six career wins he has won four of them here at the Grafton track. Despite drawing wide here in the race I think stepping back up to the 1410 metres should assist this runner.

The topweight is Jajuta (1) trained by Angela Plumb at the Gold Coast and to be ridden by Cejay Graham. Despite the big weight this runner loves heavy conditions. The wetter the track the better this one seems to go. Some say he may have webbed feet!

Cejay won on him three starts ago at Ballina on a heavy track. Last start he was sent our favourite at Ballina and had no luck – overlook that run. I think he will get conditions to suit this weekend at Grafton.

New Endeavour (4) is another runner for the Osland / Looker combination. I think that 1400 metres is more his go and he has drawn well in barrier 3 so I expect Ben Looker to place him forward, just in behind the leaders, and make his move in the final 150 metres and drive this one home.

Selections 9-1-4-8

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Race 5

This is a tough race combining Class 1 and maiden horses over the 2215 metres. Some of the Class 1 horses form is dismal.

I am going for a maiden runner (which I would normally not do) trained by Bryan Dais and to be ridden by Jag Guthmann-Chester. Slaughter Bay (9) has been stepping up each start in distance over his preparation. He is only lightly raced with 14 starts and has had 4 second placings.

Last start at Doomben he was sent out as favourite and failed to reel in the eventual winner over 2060 metres. I think he will strip better for that run and, with the big open straight, he will be able to come wide, balance up and power away (well that is what I hope).

Cushty Princess (7) is a runner from the Marcus Wilson yards. This runner has had multiple runs over the distance and he is very sharp over this trip. I feel that he will getj his chance to get his second career win at start 23 if jockey Matthew Paget can settle him off the speed and get him clear late.

Real Time Warrior (6) is trained by Joanne Hardy and is to be ridden by Laura Cheshire. This three-year-old gelding has had only 9 career starts and has been consistent throughout his career. Whilst he has never raced over this distance I expect him to settle back in the field and then sprint late. Laura has ridden him in his only career win and placing – so she knows him, and she has been riding a few winners of late. She is a very under rated jockey who always gets the best out of her mounts.

Gallant Girl (8) has raced here at the track and distance and has placed a few times. On that form she must be given a rough chance to improve and win the race.
El Teniente (1) is trained by Alan Ryan. He looks like he is not a huge fan of wet tracks, however, he does like these distance races. We may see an improved run here stepping up to this longer distance.

Selections 9-7-6-8 rough chance 1

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Race 6 Grafton Toyota South Grafton Cup 2018

Our feature race on Day 2 of the Grafton Carnival.!
Jason Taylor and Damian Lane won 2017 South Grafton Cup with Mr McBat. They are back trying to defend their title this year with All But Gone (3) who resumed last start at Canterbury over 1250 metres and ran nicely. He has second up form and loves heavy and wet tracks. He appears to be a genuine chance here in the 2018 South Grafton Cup.

No trainer and jockey combination has ever gone back to back in the South Grafton Cup in the history of the race – we could see history created here!

Cogliere (4) is trained at Port Macquarie by Marc Quinn and last start was solid in the Wauchope Cup carrying a massive weight and finishing second. I am a firm believer that this horse is not a fan of tight turning circuits and really thrives on big open tracks.

I remember watching him win a race at the Sunshine Coast over a mile back in April when ridden by Robbie Fradd – the run was sensational and demonstrates my theory. Since that run at Wauchope he has had a quiet barrier trial at Taree on a soft track where he was not asked to do much.

Matt McGuren is aboard for this run. He was in awesome form on Day 1 of the Carnival riding a winning double and taking out the jockey’s challenge on the NSW TAB. I am sure that he would be very happy to ride his first ever South Grafton Cup winner!

Brazen (2) was the winner of the Wauchope Cup when defeating Cogliere (4). He meets Cogliere (4) two kilograms worse for that win. He will be ridden again by Peter Graham. The horse is trained by Brett Cavanough who landed a winner in the first race of Day 1 of the Carnival with an exciting two-year-old ridden by Skye Bogenhuber – Scherzare. The stable has been winning races all over NSW and South East Queensland of late. They are firing! Again, this combination will be looking for their first ever South Grafton Cup winner.

American Diva (9) comes nicely into the race as well. She loves the mile, loves wet tracks and has a victory at the Grafton track to her credit. Luke Rolls and John Smerdon combined a few years ago with a good old Grafton plunge when she won here. This race is tougher, but she likes to get back in her races and settle before launching late. Watch out for the distinctive red gold sash and sleeves to be motoring out wide late in the race!

Selections 4-3-2-9 rough chance 8

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Race 7

The last race – the get out stakes – this is the toughest race of the day!

I suppose I must tip this horse Blue Monte (8) – anything with the word “Blue” in it get my attention!
This runner is trained by Terry McCarthy and is to be ridden by Leah Kilner. Last start they stepped him up to 1900 metres and he just didn’t stay. I think back to the mile on a track where he has won he is good each way value at around the $7 mark.

Wacky Doo (9) beat Blue Monte (8) last start over 1900 metres at Ballina on the heavy surface. He is dropping back in distance as well, however, with the soft conditions that are forecast for the track - and this being the last race on Day 2 - the track may have chopped up a little and this could suit this runner. He is trained by Brett Dodson and will be ridden by Matt McGuren.

With Every Bound is trained by Shane Everson and will be ridden by Brooke Stower. Again, another runner who likes wet tracks and has tasted success here at the Grafton track. Last start he ran a nice third in a BM70 on a heavy surface over a mile. He drops back in class here and goes up in weight, but I think he will probably race close to the lead and that may prove the defining factor come the last race.

Lord Of The Dreamz (1) from the Angela Plumb stables has been running consistently on his home track at the Gold Coast. He is attempting the mile for the first time, however, the way he runs his races he will cope with the mile.

Tony Newing has Forsox (3) third up here. He will appreciate the step up in distance and Tegan “Tegz” Harrison is aboard – that will give the stable some confidence. He is way over the odds at around the $21 mark. Some value if you like them rough!

Selections 8-9-6-1 rough chance 3

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Tipping Competition

WINNO is taking on good friend and Queenslander Anthony Collins over the Carnival. Be sure to catch our up to date selections on Facebook each day! Collins (QLD) jagged a win on Day 1 – WINNO is looking to bounce back and even the score on Day 2.

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Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW only)

2,3,4,9 / 2,3,7 / 2,3,9,14 / 1,4,8,9 - cost is $192 to $1

Value Early Quad (races 1 to 4 NSW)

2,3 / 2,3 / 2,3 / 1,9 - cost is $16 to $1

Quaddie (races 4 to 7)

1,4,8,9 / 6,7,8,9 / 2,3,4,9 / 1,3,6,8,9 - cost is $320 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 4 to 7)

1,9 / 6,7,9 / 3,4 / 6,8,9 - cost is $36 to $1

Treble (races 5 to 7)

6,7,8,9 / 2,3,4,9 /1,3,6,8,9 - cost is $80 to $1

Jockeys Challenge

Matt McGuren has some nice rides – maybe a back to back win here on Sunday! Jag Guthmann-Chester may be a rough hope as well.

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