WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, JULY 28, 2018
By Darren Winningham | Friday, July 27, 2018
Doomben again – backing up after racing last Saturday and then again on Wednesday.
I was at the track for the last two races on Wednesday. The rail was out 10 metres and they were obviously racing on new ground but they did seem to get into the track.
A massive nine race program is set down again for the track. I do not understand why we don’t give it a break and let it recover! The weathermen are saying warm and fine conditions.
The track is rated “GOOD” (Friday morning) and the rail will 3.0 metres out the entire course this weekend.
I would think that we will see them coming seven or eight wide this weekend – so watch out for horses peeling off the back of others and making ground. However, I would be watching the first few races to ensure that leaders do not have any advantage.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
**************************************************************************************************
In WINNO NEWS this week:
I managed to meet Channel 9’s James “Brace” Bracey on the way to work on Friday and scored some “free fuel” thanks to BP at Virginia. A quick $100 in the pocket to reinvest at Doomben this weekend!
This week an emotional debate has broken out about the jockey’s request for a pay increase in Victoria.
I think that there must be a review of payments periodically. In Victoria the industry may be able to support an increase. However, in Queensland, with the stagnant prizemoney, can any increase be sustained?
In the end someone must pay – the stables, which is passed onto the owners.
If you are going to have a review make it relevant to everyone – the track riders, the stable hands the apprentices and other people involved in the industry. There are so many people involved directly and indirectly in the “Sport of Kings” who are treated and remunerated like peasants.
Maybe it is time for the entire industry to come to the table and sort it out so there is some parity across all states. In the end there is only so much money in the bucket – if you take too much then the sport will suffer.
My last shout out should go to my good friend (and Queenslander) Josh Fleming and his lovely wife Gabrielle Fleming who had their first child last Sunday morning at 3.37am. Olivia Kenzie Fleming has come into this world – she was a massive 9 pounds 3 ounces and 58cm in length.
I have received a photo from the proud dad with Olivia sporting a maroon beanie already! He just cannot help himself!
Congratulations to both Gabrielle and Josh!
I have been busy over the last week with some 60 seconds interviews – do you have the kahunas to go 60 seconds with WINNO – let me know – let’s see what we can do!
On Sunday I will be packing my bags – stay tuned to HRO on Monday to see where I am heading!
Last weekend I was in form tipping the early Quaddie, the Treble and the Quaddie - something for my loyal followers!
************************************************************************************************
Race 1
A two-year-old race to open the program this weekend.
Defence Missile (2) is the gelding trained by Les Ross that flipped on the track in work and landed on Sheriden Tomlinson. Since that track accident he has won a race impressively at the Sunshine Coast on a heavy track. On that note Sheriden has been recuperating well and now is just being patient about completing his rehabilitation and getting back to race ride fitness.
Apprentice Boris Thornton who has been in good form recently takes the ride this weekend.
Desert Digby (3) has been sensationally backed from $18 to $9 since the markets have opened. Maybe we can put that last start failure at the Sunshine Coast down to “second up syndrome” as this Golden Archer gelding looked great winning on debut at the Gold Coast on a good track.
Archade (1) has been up a while but Desleigh Forster has been spacing out his runs. He stepped up in grade last start and despite being beaten around seven lengths the run was okay – do not leave this one out!
Rob Heathcote’s stable runner is Pinch Vista (7) who had trialled well prior to his debut at Ipswich over 1200 metres. I think that he didn’t run the distance out and the Ipswich track may have been another factor. So back at Doomben this week where he won a trial in June – I expect a distinctly improved performance.
Selections: 2-7-1-3
*************************************************************************************************
Race 2
The weekly stayer’s race.
Last weekend San Telmo (6) returned to the winners’ stalls for the Symons & Laxon stables at the Sunshine Coast. In fact, he gave the opportunity for apprentice Jackson Murphy to land his first Saturday Metro winner. Jackson stays on top here this weekend and despite going up in class he looks well placed again. The Australasian Thoroughbreds logo will be proudly worn again on this runner and he has backed up previously to win races.
Brilliant Jet (7) won over the Grafton Carnival after the NSW TAB bet as much as $16 and were inundated with bets before he eventually started $3 favourite. I would say that clerk does not have a job now!
He is trained in Tasmania by Aiden Nunn who seems to pop a runner up here each year lately. Brilliant Jet too is up in grade but his win at Grafton was full on arrogance and dominance – he will be competitive here.
Endless Days (9) is co-owned by the Lilivale Stud group and trained by Will and Peter Hulbert. I think that this distance is the perfect opportunity to see him return to the winner’s stalls. Matthew McGillivray is in the saddle and he seems to get the best out of this four-year-old gelding. He was only 0.8 lengths behind them in the Magic Millions Trophy back in January – that makes him a live chance here this weekend.
Exoteric (5) from the Waller yards on the Gold Coast is stepping back up to a suitable distance this weekend as well. His recent barrier trails over 1200 metres at Deagon suggests that he is going along well since resuming from a spell. He is second up here, has Jim Byrne in the saddle and, to be fair, has a reasonable record – 20 starts for 6 wins and 5 placings.
Selections: 6-9-5-7 rough chance 1
**************************************************************************************************
Race 3
Only a small field of seven runners now with some early scratchings.
I was at the Gold Coast the other week to see Spurcraft (3) resume and carry 62 kilograms over 900 metres. The run was sensational with him getting out in front and running his opposition into the ground like he normally does. Regular rider Les “Bubba” Tilley jumped off and was very happy with the run saying that he was “a little fat and would be improved by the run”.
I think that if they are leading and cannot run them down in the first few races we could see “Bubba” land his first Saturday Metro winner in Brisbane.
After giving him a wrap I am going to tip against the early market favourite – it will probably bring me to my hands and knees, however, I think, with the speed in the race, the Tony Gollan trained My Girl Hayley (2) will stalk the leader and run him down in the final 50 metres!
I qualify this by saying that if the race was over 1000 metres I would have declared Spurcraft (3) but just that longer distance and his poor second up record may be against him – sorry in advance Bubba!
The other Gollan runner Jetsonic (5) will be suited as well with the speed on and the small field. He should keep himself out of trouble and be powering home late. It could be a Gollan quinella here punters!
Selections: 2-5-3-7
**************************************************************************************************
Race 4
This is a race that does my head in!
Pegapus (8) from the Matthew Dunn Racing stables at Murwillumbah really didn’t fire in the Mother’s Gift race at Grafton. I see the blinkers go back on this weekend – maybe we will see a better run? There is some good speed in the race and he likes to get back and come home late – the speed here may be beneficial.
Hingus Rose (3) won at her home track a fortnight ago when a heavily backed favourite. She led on that occasion and won nicely. I think that now she is four runs in she may just go on with it here this weekend in a tough race.
The stable mate is So Invincible (5) who needs a dry track to perform at his best. He gets those conditions here and I expect to see a better run this week from the Stuart Kendrick runner.
Rhyming (4) was solid last weekend and is on the quick back up after being defeated by under two lengths after leading them. I think this weekend, from barrier 2, apprentice Michael Murphy may be able to let them go and ride her in behind the speed before exposing her for one final sprint at them.
Selections: 3-4-8-5 rough chances 11
**************************************************************************************************
Race 5
This is a tough race people – there are a fair few early scratchings.
I am going for Happy Hooves (9) from the Gollan Racing team. This runner is third up here and I am forgiving his run at Ipswich where he raced with a heavy weight, running a gallant second. I think that he will be super hard to beat in this field.
Loose Goose (11) comes out of a nice race at Grafton over the Carnival. She was first up there and looked a little plump in the yard and would probably strip fitter for the run. This weekend Michael McNab gets the ride and from barrier 9 I expect him to push forward and take up a prominent position.
Makes You Think (13), trained by Steven O’Dea Racing, was first up at the Sunshine Coast when beaten by Jetsonic (race 3 – number 5). You may get a good guide to his chances here after Race 3 if Jetsonic runs a solid race.
He is a nicely bred So You Think gelding who has won second up in a previous preparation. This runner has been well backed as well firming from $7 to $4.20 since the markets have opened.
Almas (8) is trained by Danny Bowen and Matthew McGuren has packed his saddle and gear and will be making the trip to Doomben to ride this one again. He has been aboard since 28 May when he won at Grafton – since then he has won 2 more starts (at Lismore and Grafton) with Matt in the saddle. An impressive record with a recent 3 from 3 winning strike rate – in fact, these three wins have been the only three wins in his limited 13 start career!
If you want to play wide Mr Bellagio (3) from the Liam Birchley stables can show up. He recently has a barrier trial at Deagon where he wasn’t really tested. He has won previously first up and has been found in the early markets firming from $7 to $4.80.
Selections: 9-13-3-8 rough chance 11
***************************************************************************************************
Race 6
Qiji Phoenix (1) ran well first up for new trainer Toby Edmonds last start when resuming in a higher-grade race. On that occasion he gave jockey Jimmy Orman a torrid ride running about and wanting to duck in behind other runners. When he finally got the colt balanced he did surge to the line late. This start he blinkers have been removed and there has been some money for the runner early firming from $5 to $3.90.
I think he is a nice type but just not too sure I want to back him with the weight and the barrier he has drawn. However, if he puts his best foot forward here, he could slay this field.
The Grafton trained She’s Choosie (14) was an enormous run first up in the NBN Springboard to Fame (2-year-old race) over the Grafton Carnival when she went down by an eyelash when beaten by Vernazza who was rated to perfection by Jim Byrne. I think drawn nicely in barrier 3 and Michael Cahill to ride $6 is a great price each way.
In seven starts she has only been out of the money once so I think that she could step up here and substantiate the wraps the stable has on her.
Helfuchi (11), from the Chris Munce stable, is on a fast back up after winning last weekend on the Gold Coast. She will be the likely leader here from barrier 2. This runner ran a great second at Grafton when beaten by Looks Like Elvis who raced well here last weekend. If she can handle the seven day back up she may be tough to beat especially if Mark Du Plessis can get some cheap sectionals out in front.
Splitter (10) put her second career win on the board last start at Ipswich three weeks ago. She is only lightly raced and is trained by Tony Gollan.
Conquering Lass (9) is trained by Steve Tregea. She resumed last start at Toowoomba winning a Class 3 race over 1050 metres. She has won second up previously and has the services of the apprentice of the moment Jackson “McLovin” Murphy. His claim could be the deciding factor here.
This is an open race – many chances punters!
Selections: 14-1-11-10 rough chance 9
**************************************************************************************************
Race 7
Our feature race today!
Let’s start with Desert General (10) here from the Liam Birchley Racing team. He was great first up when beaten behind Apoloboom three weeks ago. He has won second up and has been racing well over this distance on good tracks.
Yaba Dabl Doya (8) won a fortnight ago at the Sunshine Coast after a solid race the start prior when beaten by Super Suave. He does not win too often, nor at Doomben, but he may bob up here at some odds.
Sabkhat (7) is coming back from the mile to 1350 metres where he has raced well previously. Jackson Murphy will ride this runner at 51 kilograms and probably take it to the lead and he may be very difficult to run down if he gets his own way in front.
Belflyer (5) is trained at Grafton by the astute John Shelton who managed to get this runner to peak on Ramornie Day and run a gallant second to Havasay, beaten by 0.6 lengths.
I think that if you put Havasay in this field he would be prohibitive odds but I am concerned with the fact that Belflyer has a poor record here at Doomben. Shelton has brought in the big guns and enlisted Adam Hyeronimus to ride the gelding. The Ramornie form normally stands up in the meetings after the race and this runner is $7. Some value odds here.
Desleigh Forster has Too Good Too Refuse (3) in the race. Last start at Rockhampton he found a track where not many runners were making ground. He got too far back but still somehow managed to run a nice third. Jimmy Orman stays aboard this runner and he is third up this preparation. He could be ready to show something and he meets a field where a number of these runners find it hard to win.
It is one of those races where you pick something and then you find an excuse not to back it – bet with caution!
Selections: 5-7-10-3 rough chance 8
***************************************************************************************************
Race 8
Bluebrook (14) has strung two nice wins together for the Kelly Schweida Racing team. He gets in well again here with the conditions of the race. Hopefully he can post a win for owners “Not so Big Daz” Darren Wilson and Janelle Whalley. I am hoping that we can see those distinctive blue and white stars silks zoom past the post again first this weekend – no pressure Jimmy Orman!
Around this time of the year, each year, this Tony Gollan runner El Campeador (8) seems to pop up and post a win at a large price. I think you can put the pen through the last start run in the Rockhampton Cup when he raced on a heavy track which is not his go. He got too far back in a race where the leaders had a distinct advantage. I am expecting, at around the $10 mark, that this one may show up and make a pest of himself in our Quaddie and Treble legs!
I’m Belucci (3) was a nice run last start on a heavy track here three weeks ago. He goes up in weight here but gets back onto a surface where he should thrive.
Bergerac (4) trained by Steve Tregea has been racing well since resuming from a spell. I like him over the mile here this weekend with a claim for apprentice Michael Murphy. He has a relatively good winning record with 6 wins from 15 starts and he likes a dry track!
Selections: 14-8-4-3
***************************************************************************************************
Race 9
The last race of the program and it looks like a tough affair.
I go back to the Grafton Carnival form here for this race and I like Captivator (2) from the Les Kelly stables on the Gold Coast. This runner was gallant in defeat in the Grafton Guineas won by Turnberry from the Kris Lees stables. This runner came out of Group racing in the Brisbane over the Winter Carnival. The form may translate well here. I see that Jeff Lloyd has been booked for the ride as well.
So, if I am looking at the Grafton Guineas form I must put in I Am Impinge (7) in somewhere. The blinkers go back on for this start and I think this will assist him here. I think he was without luck at Grafton and got caught in behind a wall of horses and never got a crack at them in the final 200 metres.
Looks Like Elvis (12) is backing up from a nice run last weekend. He has a habit of settling off the speed and then running home late. Corey Bayliss takes the ride for Bryan Dais and his 3-kilogram claim will be beneficial to this runner as he steps up in grade.
Carry On Ringo (13) has drawn out near the Brisbane airport in barrier 22. Apprentice Jackson Murphy will need to perform a miracle to get this runner in and get some cover. If he can manage to get in the first ten without using much petrol this runner may be one that can land the biscuits at around the $31 mark.
Brains (4), trained by Tony Gollan, won nicely over a mile at Rockhampton Carnival. He won on a heavy track and was handy the whole way before letting down and winning by 2.20 lengths. He has good form over a mile and on a good track. He has drawn woefully though in barrier 20 but Matthew McGillivray seems to thrive on a challenge! I am probably going to get in trouble from him if I tip him on top - so I won’t!
The stable mate is Get Stuck In (10). I am finding it difficult to line this runner up with the rest of the field as he has been working through the grades and comes off a win over 1300 metres. This gelding has some ability and I am thinking he may be worth putting in our exotics!
Selections: 2-7-4-12 rough chance 10 & 13
**************************************************************************************************
Jockey Challenge
Looks like it is going to be a battle between Matthew McGillivray, Jimmy Orman and Jackson Murphy all of whom has some nice rides. I am going for Matty to win this week!
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
5,6,7,9 / 2,3,5 / 3,4,5,8 / 3,8,9,13 - cost is $192 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,9,10,11,14 / 3,5,7,10 / 4,8,14 / 2,4,7,12 - cost is $240 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,14 / 3,5,7 / 8,14 / 2,4,7 - cost is $36 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
3,5,7,10 / 4,8,14 / 2,4,7,12 - cost is $48 to $1
Value Treble (races 7 to 9)
5,7 / 8,14 / 2,4,7 - cost is $12 to $1
Good luck and good punting!
More articles
|