DAZZA'S DARWIN DECLARATIONS: DARWIN CUP DAY
By Darren Winningham | Sunday, August 5, 2018
DARWIN CUP CARNIVAL – DAY 8 – CARLTON MID 2018 DARWIN CUP - AUGUST 6
The final day is here – the Carlton Mid Darwin Cup the last race of the program on the first Monday in August!
The weather should be nice and hot again on Monday – no rain in sight!
The Darwin Turf Club are expecting a record crowd with pre-sale tickets going well!
The track is rated “GOOD” and the rail is in the true position for the meeting.
On SaturdayThe Bet 365 Palmerston Sprint was taken out in sensational style by the locally trained Captain Punch. He was taken to the lead by jockey Brendon Davis and was never headed in the running to win emphatically by seven and one quarter lengths – it was a display that I have not ever seen at this track.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
Race 1
Only a small field for the first race.
Last start winner Evil Miss (3) looks well placed here again. It has been two months since her last run here – she always races fresh. Jason Maskiell takes over as the jockey and is looking for a win after recently getting engaged to his fiancée Candi Green – what a way to celebrate with a win on Darwin Cup Day!
The topweight Brooklyn (1), trained and ridden by Carl Spry, ran a good second here last start and finished off the race nicely. He seems to like running places and has only won 4 times from 37 starts.
The Hummel (2) finished third in the same race that Brooklyn (1) went around in and was ridden out to the line strongly to get that position.
The runner that I have a question mark on is the Jamie Kah mount Wicked Affair (5) who reared at the jump last start and really didn’t take any part in the race. It may pay to overlook that run and go on the prior win.
Selections 3-1-2-5
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Race 2
Action Again (2) is looking to win back to back Montgomerie Lightning Plates. Last year he was ridden by Blake Shinn this year he will be ridden by Jarrod Todd. He is second up for the Neil Dyer stable who had a successful Cup Day in 2018. I think the first up run was a solid hit out for this assignment and he should be tough to roll here.
Roughly (7) won last start here over the 1000 metres in a reasonable time. Down in the weights but up against some more seasoned sprinters she looks the likely improver to challenge in this special race. Kim Gladwin retains the ride and he has won his past two starts on this mare. A unique hat trick is on the cards!
Kilim (3) won here over 1100 metres a fortnight ago and has been set for the race. He has won eight times over the 1000 metres and should be in the final finish.
Your Excellency (4) was narrowly beaten last start by Kilim (3) and meets him slightly better at the weights for this race. Raymond Vigar is aboard – he will be the leader of the race and could prove difficult to run down if he gets his own way in front.
I don’t think Neat Feet (1) will back up after racing in the Palmerston Sprint on Saturday – however, if he does he will need to be included in the chances.
Selections 2-7-3-4 rough chance 1
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Race 3
Riverina Romance (9) won here a week ago for Angela Forster. This week on Cup day she has put Jamie Kah on to see if she can get another winner over the Carnival. This four-year-old mare won well in decent time and should be very competitive here again.
Was Agona (8) went around here last Wednesday and is on a quick back up. He was sent out favourite in that race and was unlucky I think in the run. He goes up in class this run however, coming back to the 1200 metres, I think the shorter distance should suit him.
Culzean (2) is stepping up from 1100 metres last start to 1200 metres. He has never won over this distance – however has run multiple placings and will be competitive here.
Marbel Duke (5) steps up to 1200 metres from a last start run over 1100 metres. He is a rough chance.
Selections 9-8-2-5
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Race 4
Jayeffkay (2) made his debut at Darwin a month ago and ran a strong second. Jason Maskiell stays aboard here.
Global Icon (1) went around last Wednesday. He was gallant in defeat and looks like he will appreciate the longer distance of 1100 metres here on Monday.
The Gary Clarke and Brendon Davis team (who won the 365 Palmerston Sprint on Saturday) combine here with Let’s Celebrate (9). Maybe this is ironic and a topical tip as they do saddle up the favourite later in the day in the Carlton Mid Darwin Cup – Zahspeed! That could be a unique double for this trainer and jockey – and maybe another winner here.
Selections 2-1-9-7
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Race 5 The Magic Millions Handicap
The Magic Millions Handicap on Darwin Cup Day.
There are a few horses scheduled to back up after running on Saturday – not sure if they will take their place in the field so I will see what I can sort out here.
The Captain (4) from the Richard Laming stables was a solid run on Wednesday last week.
He led and kicked away around the 70-metre mark and was just run down by some other runners close to the post. He would have stripped fitter and on the short back up looks the likely winner.
Rakitiki (8) won on Wednesday is a lower-class race. He is trained by Paul and Tracey Templeton and he has won three times over this distance. He raced off the speed before powering home in that last win. This race looks like there will be some speed in the race and he could get similar conditions here on Cup Day.
Java (1) won at his last start over the mile and comes back in distance to 1300 metres. He has had a 9-day break since his last run. He has the Gary Clarke polish on him and should be competitive.
The two that come out of the Bet 365 Palmerston Sprint on Saturday are Arctic Song (2) and Niccoco (3). Should they take their places in the field they will be competitive.
Selections 4-8-3-1 rough chance 2
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Race 6 The Ladbrokes Handicap
Mulk (2), trained by Neil Dyer, ran second here last weekend (Sat 28.7). In that run he made a late charge and ran out of time to reel in the leader. I think the extra 100 metres of this race will suit and he will be hard to beat.
Needy Rocket (3) has had a fortnight between runs and is stepping up to 1300 metres for the first time. He did come hard last start, so I think he will get the distance.
Heart of Red (1) got to the lead last Wednesday and was only run down in the last few strides. He will be better for that hit out.
The others look hard pressed to trouble the rest of these.
Selections 2-3-1-12 rough chance 4
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Race 7
This is a very open race over the mile with several chances – many runners will be backed in this race!
Marina (13) won a race over a mile over on Wednesday (1.8) when ridden by Sairyn Fawke – but Sairyn copped a suspension and will not be riding on Darwin Cup Day. Dom Tourneur has now been booked to ride this one and he will be competitive again in this race.
Pot Black (7) also won on the same day over 1300 metres and steps up to the mile for the first time this preparation. He has won three times over the mile, so he will not be troubled in getting the distance and the way he won on Wednesday suggests that he will appreciate some speed in the race as he likes to storm home late. Jarrod Todd remains aboard for this assignment.
Quantum Dot (9) has been sent out in his last two starts as favourite over the mile here. In both starts he managed to sit in behind the lead before making his move and being run down late. He genuinely has been unlucky over the Carnival and probably deserves to claim a win here for jockey Paul “Dash” Denton and trainer Sheila Arnold.
Hammered Art (6) is trained and ridden by Carl Spry. This runner has had 3 weeks between runs. His last start he won at around the $10 mark over a mile here. He raced wide on the track on that occasion and was too good.
Brunswick Street (12) carried a massive weight on Saturday (4.8) and is on a very quick back up. He was very easy in the markets blowing from $1.70 out to start $3 when beaten by just over 2 lengths. Back down in the weights here and with Raymond Vigar aboard I expect that he will be very competitive if he takes his place in the field.
Selections 13-7-9-12 rough chance 1, 6 and 11
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Race 8
Wicked Promise (4) will probably trail in behind the speed here with a couple of speedsters engaged. I think that being ridden with cover and being exposed late to make her run will suit her. Last start she sat in behind them and got a break and surged away to win over a mile. Stepping up to 1900 metres should not bother this mare.
Halogem (3), trained by Mark Nyham, has won his past two starts over a mile. He is looking for a hat trick of wins and steps up to the 1900 metres for the first time in his racing career. He has a habit to sit in behind before making one barnstorming run late to come home and put himself in the finish. With the speed engaged in the race I am certain that this will assist this runner.
The Michael Hickmott trained topweight Adatto (1) was heavily backed here last start when racing over the 1900 metres. He races as if the distance will not be a problem but does have to carry 60 kilograms.
Wicked Rhythm (9) has started a $3.50 favourite in his last two starts over the mile here. He seems to just be unlucky in his runs – maybe with the engagement of Jarrod Todd to take the reigns there could be a change in fortune for this runner. He must be respected as well.
Selections 4-3-1-9 rough chance 10
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Race 9 The 2018 Carlton Mid Darwin Cup
Zahspeed (1) likes to lead and run them into the ground. He has been dominant since moving from Brisbane to the stables of Gary Clarke in Darwin. He has made the transition from turf to sand-based tracks seamlessly and has been very dominant here.
This race could provide an opportunity for the trainer / jockey combination to win the 365 Palmerston Sprint and Darwin Cup double. Gary Clarke and jockey Brendon Davis could create history in 2018!
The only problem is if something decides to go forward and take this runner on – it could bring a new dimension to the entire race!
Royal Request (2) won the Darwin Cup in 2017 and is looking to defend his title this year. His lead up runs have been impressive and I think that Neil Dyer has got this runner ready to peak on the day. He will carry less weight than last year and is at nice odds presently around $14 in some markets.
Lieder (7) went around in the 2017 Darwin Cup as well and finished a nice third. He has been in the North End for his past three starts and this has always been the Grand Final for the Michael Hickmott trained gelding. His last run last start over the 1900 metres was good when beaten by Senior Council (10) when he carried a large chunk of weight. He is sure to have been improved and, fourth up from a spell, here will race well.
Senior Council (10) won easily last start over 1900 metres and made ground late to go away and post a win. He meets some of the opposition that he beat in that run worse at the weights – but winning form is good form!
My tip for the Cup is Turf Man (12) now to be ridden by Dom Tourneur as Sairyn Fawke has been suspended. It would have been great to see Sairyn on a live chance in the Darwin Cup, however, he will lose nothing in the booking of Tourneur who will ride this Turffontein four-year-old gelding for the first time.
He bolted in be over ten lengths last start over this distance running nearly the same time as was run in the 2017 Darwin Cup when Royal Request (2) won the race. Look he is up in grade – however, with only 54 kilograms on his back I think he is a special to win the Darwin Cup of 2018!
Selections 12-7-2-1 rough chance 10
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Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
2,3,7 / 2,8,9 / 1,2,9 / 1,3,4,8 - cost is $108 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,2,3 / 7,9,12,13 / 1,3,4,9 / 1,2,7,12 - cost is $192 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
2,3 / 7,13 / 3,4 / 1,12 - cost is $16 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
7,9,12,13 / 1,3,4,9 / 1,2,7,12 - cost is $64 to $1
Jockeys Challenge
Looks like a nice book of rides for Jason Maskiell on Cup Day – hopefully he can get the chocolates! maybe enough to pay for that engagement ring for his wife to be – Candi Green!
Good luck and good punting!
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