WINNO'S WINNERS: EAGLE FARM, MARCH 23
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, March 21, 2019
This weekend we race at EAGLE FARM.
The track is rated “GOOD” (Thursday morning) and the rail will in the true position. Unless we have some constant rain over a few days like last week we should be racing on a reasonable surface.
The focus is on Rosehill this weekend for the GOLDEN SLIPPER. It will be a big day out there.
Ok. Here we go!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
Race 1
The first race presents a small field of two-year-old runners over 1400 metres.
Sizzling Babe (3), trained by Neville Saunders and to be ridden by Bubba Tilley, looks the winner on paper after her great win last start where she blew in the market as if she had lost a leg! On that occasion Bubba managed to get her home and she won in a dominant fashion – we got some great odds as well, finally starting at $2.25.
Raingurl (10) was in the same race as Sizzling Babe (3) last start and was doing her best work late. If any runner can improve and turn the tables this weekend it could be this one with Ben Currie’s stable in great form – apprentice Baylee Nothdurft’s claim will assist as well.
Hit Snooze (9) won a midweek race over 1200 metres for the Steven O’Dea Racing team last start. On that occasion it safely held the Tony Gollan runner Pull Anchor (9) who should be thereabouts again this weekend.
The topweight, Girls Are Ready (1) was sensationally backed in the Two-Year-Old Jewel on the Gold Coast last weekend and is on a quick back up on the larger track this weekend. She is undefeated second up. I just cannot see her making an 11-length improvement in a week – there seemed to be no excuses last weekend. Maybe I will be proven wrong!
Selections: 3-10-7-9 rough chance 1
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Race 2
A distance race for three-year-old runners over 2200 metres.
These are always tough races!
I like the looks of the John Zielke runner here - Champagne Garden (4) - who went around in a BM75 last start over the track and distance. This weekend he meets his own age and looks well placed. At good odds of $8 each way I think this represents great value. It would be great to see Anthony Allen in the winner’s circle as well!
The Tony Gollan runner is Lucadeal (5) who won at the Gold Coast last start over 1800 metres. The way he settled and then made a sustained run to win that race suggests to me that he will relish the 2200 metres. $12 there is value here as well.
The more favoured runners are Mullaghmore (2) and Borazon (3) who both ran a fortnight ago here over 1840 metres and turned in solid performances – they should be competitive again this weekend.
Selections: 4-5-2-3
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Race 3
Twenty-four nominations for this race! Only 16 of them will take their place in the field.
It is as open as the Sydney Heads!
I cannot say I am a fan of the race. I will go for the Brian Smith trained Belle Roc (16) who is third up and should be at peak fitness and has drawn well – Scott Galloway to ride.
Ponytales (6) flashed home last start here over a mile. She is fourth up, well drawn and has the services of the apprentice Baylee Nothdurft.
Francisca (13) was sent out favourite last start over 1400 metres here. On face value she looked disappointing – but she is a nice mare. She is fourth up and should be suited by 1500 metres.
Seahampton (11) is a Chris Waller runner that was sent to Queensland and won at Doomben midweek – nearly three weeks between runs and stepping up slightly in distance with Robbie Fradd in the saddle. It would not surprise me if she wins at some good each way odds.
Selections: 16-6-11-13 rough chances 1 & 10
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Race 4
This is the three-year-old Jewel feature race that was postponed to this week after a rain deluge at the Gold Coast last Saturday. The race is worth $200,000 in prizemoney.
I am not changing my tips from last weekend!
There have been some serious market movers since the markets have been posted.
Matt Kropp trains Spirit’s Choice (12) who has won her past three starts carrying massive weights at Dalby and the Sunshine Coast. She likes to get out in front and set the speed – drawn barrier 7 she should get across and take up a forward position. They took massive odds last weekend – the bookies have kept her short here this weekend.
The other runner that was well found last weekend was the Ben Currie trained Soxagon (9) who resumed at Toowoomba in a maiden race and settled off the speed before being sent forward by Beau Appo. Striking the lead at the 600 metres Soxagon then surged ahead to win by around 10 lengths – it was impressive! The odds are more conservative this weekend at $17.
That has meant that the more favoured runner from the Ben Currie stables – Mishani Hustler (1) -who has drawn wide in barrier 12, is around the $3.40 mark this weekend. Despite the wide draw this runner has proven in previous wins that he does not have to lead and will chase down runners if something goes forward.
Taylor Marshall continues his great affinity with this colt – he has had 5 rides for 4 wins and 1 second. I really cannot see many runners finishing in front of this one at the set weights. Granted the barrier may pose some problems but he has raced consistently now for months.
Last weekend after taking consideration of the barriers and the likely speed in the race I thought the Les Ross trained Defence Missile (3) could turn the tables on Mishani Hustler (1). This weekend, from barrier 1, Jeff Lloyd will be looking to trail the leaders and run them down in the straight.
This is his fourth run from a spell and his second this preparation over 1200 metres. I think back at Eagle Farm with the long straight Defence Missile should have the last shot at Mishani Hustler (1) as the winning post looms. He chances will be further enhanced if the track is rain affected.
The two Gollan Racing runners Macewen (4) and Trail of Glory (14), despite drawing poorly, are not without a live chance.
Selections: 3-1-12-4 rough chance 9 & 14
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Race 5
A massive three-year-old field has been assembled here over 1000 metres.
These races are not getting any easier!
The Edmonds Racing team has two runners here who look well placed. Usmanov (14) resumes this weekend after a solid barrier trial win a month ago on the Gold Coast. He is drawn barrier 11 and will probably race midfield. I note the Jeff Lloyd has chosen this runner to ride – that may be a lead for punters. Since the markets have opened, he has been smashed from $6 into $3. Where there is smoke there maybe is fire!
The stable mate is Munich (10) and he resumed as a short-priced favourite a month ago in a midweek at Doomben and led all the way. On that occasion he was ridden by Jeff Lloyd. This weekend Baylee Nothdurft takes the reigns. This runner is $31, and I think that he will beat his stable mate this weekend!
Steven O’Dea trains the top weight Jami Lady (1) who resumes from a 16-week spell. No official barrier trials are in the form guide, however, she has won first up last preparation. The other noteworthy fact is her last preparation form where she was beaten only 2 lengths by Zoustyle. If you put that runner in this field, he would be at prohibitive odds this weekend. Despite the large weight I think she will be tuned up for a solid first up effort.
Gollan Racing trains Pizonie (8) who is second up after a solid hit out a month ago at the Sunshine Coast. The gelding has drawn the rails and will be well placed throughout – do not underestimate this runner.
Selections: 10-1-14-8 rough chances 3 & 5
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Race 6
An Open Class race over 1000 metres is the first leg of our Quaddie this week.
Mr Marbellouz (3) looks like he will take his place in the field here this weekend with Baylee Nothdurft aboard and a nice claim of 3 kilograms. He is around the $2 mark in the markets and looks well placed and difficult to roll.
I looked for some value for the placings and come up with the Ben Currie pair of Snitch (9) and Whycatchim (17) who have both drawn well in the large field. Snitch (9) is first up here after a 13-week spell. He normally comes to hand very quickly and Josh Oliver has a tremendous record on the lightly raced gelding.
The pair combined last weekend at the Gold Coast with Mishani Vaidra to win a good race in the lead up to the Toowoomba Cup. I think that this runner will be ridden close to the speed from the great barrier. Is he forward enough to roll Mr Marbellouz (3)? That is the $100 question (he is around $14 in the markets).
The other Currie runner Whycatchim (17) is an emergency and may not make the field unless there are some more scratchings. This runner resumed in a midweek race and was an easy winner. He is looking to step up to Saturday grade but will be competitive.
The top weight is trained by Kris Lees and has had two trials in the lead up to his resumption to racing after an 18-week spell. He has won 3 times first up and looks ideally placed in this grade.
From Within (2) resumes after a Group 1 run in Victoria a month ago. She has drawn terrible in barrier 18. She normally likes to lead – I am not sure where Jag Guthmann-Chester will place her this weekend. Jag was back with a boom last weekend – with a winning double. He will give her every chance.
Selections: 3-9-1-17 rough chances 2, 11 & 13
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Race 7
Fourteen runners will take their place here over 1800 metres.
These races are not instilling me with much confidence.
Rob Heathcote trains Kubis (2) who drops back in distance from a solid win over 2212 metres here a fortnight ago when ridden by Baylee Nothdurft. That was an 11 out of 10 ride. He was perfectly rated by Baylee. This weekend Jag Guthmann-Chester takes the reigns as Nothdurft has elected to ride last start winner Get Stuck In (3).
Get Stuck In (3) won over a mile last start with Nothdurft aboard – this was his third win in a row aboard this Tony Gollan trained gelding. Get Stuck In steps up in distance this weekend, however, such was his dominance last start he should have no problems getting the extra 200 metres.
Last weekend the Chris Waller trained See The Master (12) won at the Gold Coast over this distance. Robbie Fradd was at his best with a well-timed run finding the best part of the track to get this gelding home after he drifted alarmingly in the betting ring from $3.50 to $5.50. The short back up may be the only issue.
Clevannic (9) runs for the first time in Queensland after a solid win at Newcastle last start over a similar distance. Kris Lees seems to be able to target races with runners and does have some great success when he brings them here. Ryan Maloney is aboard. Look for him to be in the first six or seven in the running – he will be well placed.
Selections: 3-2-12-9 rough chances 1 & 14
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Race 8
The Gold Coast Waller based stables is well represented in this field with four runners. To be fair they all have reasonable chances with all of them running solid runs last start.
I have gone for Impasse (10) to be the best of his runners. Last start he got to the front at the 200 metres and was run down late by Tumbler. That looks good form for this race.
I was bullish about the chances of Zamex (8) from the Matthew Dunn stables first up in the same race. He was sent out at massive odds of $41 and I do not believe he was disgraced. He was held up for a run around the 300 metres – then was forced to shift out to get a clear run, losing his momentum. From there he worked home solidly to be beaten by just 1.45 lengths.
This weekend he will be large odds again around $17. He has a nice second up record and would have stripped fitter for that run first up. The extra distance will enhance his chances.
Jaminzah (5) won first up from a spell and was flying home late last start here over 1400 metres – Jeff Lloyd takes over again this weekend. He will be in the finish for sure.
Order Again (2), trained by Brian Smith, was solidly supported first up from a spell. He was caught wide in the running and was unlucky. I think if he gets luck in the running this weekend he will be suited by the longer distance. He does love this Eagle Farm surface (2 wins – 2 placings).
The Ben Currie runner Sword of Justice (3) put them to the sword last start at Doomben with an amazing turn of speed and a great display of front running under the urgings of Brad Stewart. He goes up in weight this weekend and Currie has elected to put Baylee Nothdurft on and claim three kilograms here.
He is the leader of the race – but I think the very long straight at Eagle Farm may test him. For the record I am not saying he cannot win again. I just think that he will be under siege from runners flying home in the final 100 metres.
Selections: 8-10-5-2 rough chances 3 & 9
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Race 9
We arrive at the last race and we are greeted with a 24-horse nomination over 1200 metres. Only 16 of them will take their place in the final field – there are already 4 early scratchings out of the race. It looks a monumental assignment for punters.
Steven O’Dea Racing has five runners in the field and they are all not without a genuine chance here.
Langhro (16) has drawn the rails and will be the likely leader. There has been some gear changes for this runner this weekend with ear muffs being applied and a tongue tie put on him. Maybe this will see a change in fortune for this runner who has been sent out favourite a couple of times this preparation and has been beaten.
Cool Sequence (12) dropped back in distance and had blinkers on last start and got the job done at some great odds of $15. This weekend he has drawn wider and goes up to 1200 metres. Matthew McGillivray takes the ride. I think that despite the draw he will be competitive again here this week.
Tabbing (10) is another O’Dea runner who raced on the speed last start before being run down late by the up and coming Gollan runner Capital Connection. He was not disgraced in that run and Boris Thornton is taking the ride again.
Manaya (3) was a wonderful winner last here over 1200 metres. She was up against her own sex and blitzed them last start. I note that in her third up efforts she has never won – the key booking of Jeff Lloyd may alter that statistic!
Curdled (4) from the Edmonds Racing team on the Gold Coast is looking for a hat trick of wins after two solid wins up from a spell. Last start she won at Doomben and gets her first look at the Eagle Farm track. With her barnstorming finish look for the red and yellow distinguished colours of Segenhoe to be in the finish. She has drawn handy in barrier 2 and will be given the run of the race by Ryan Maloney who has ridden her to victory in her past two starts.
Spin (9) is from the Peter and Paul Snowden stables in Sydney. He has not tasted success in 32 weeks – but in saying that he has acquitted himself a Group level racing and is back to a Class 6 assignment this weekend. Jimmy Orman has been booked by the stable to ride the gelding – he comes off a wonderful win last weekend aboard The Odyssey in the Two-year-old Jewel last weekend.
Selections: 4-9-16-3 rough chances 10 & 12
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Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
2,4,5 / 6,11,13,16 / 1,3,4,12 / 1,8,10.14 - cost is $192 to $1
Value Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
4,5 / 6,11,16 / 1,3 / 1,10,14 - cost is $36 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,3,9,17 / 2,3,9,12 / 2,3,5,8,10 / 3,4,9,16 - cost is $320 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3,9 / 2,3 / 5,8,10 / 3,4,9 - cost is $36 to $1
MAD QUADDIE IS BACK
3 / 3 / 3 / 3,4 - cost is $2 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
2,3,9,12 / 2,3,5,8,10 / 3,4,9,16 - cost is $80 to $1
Jockeys Challenge
The last few weekends the apprentices have been riding in astonishing form. This weekend the new kid on the block Baylee Nothdurft looks to have a solid book of rides and will be hard to toss!
FLEMO v WINNO
WINNO won last weekend – knocking off FLEMO! The Broncos lost as well. It was a great weekend until my Bulldogs were shameful in New Zealand! Remember to check out our last-minute tips and preview on Facebook on Saturday morning after the track and final scratchings have been sorted out!
Good luck and good punting!
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