WINNO'S WINNERS: IPSWICH: JUNE 19, 2021
By Darren Winningham | Friday, June 18, 2021
Ipswich this weekend – featuring the TAB Ipswich Cup - with the track rated “SOFT” and the rail is out 0.5 metres for the entire circuit. There is some rain forecast on Saturday – that would be a big maybe for mine– maybe that will just take the firmness out of the track.
This track does sometimes tend to favour horses who have won here – I am going to say it AGAIN this weekend -
NO favourite will win a race on this card. Value to be had and the bookmakers may give the punters another hiding this weekend. Well maybe one favourite the promising Incentivise (Race 3 - number 2).
NB: As these selections were made prior to race-day please check for any changes to track conditions and for any scratchings on the day.
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Race 1
We start the day with a 1350 metre race for the two-year-olds.
I think there are two important gear changes here on Balmaurice (4) and Hodgson (8) – winkers go on Balmaurice (4), trained in Toowoomba by Rex Lipp, and the winkers come off and blinkers go on the John Moore (Gold Coast) trained Hodgson (8).
Both are very good trainers and I think either one could win this race. John Moore, who will be looking for his first Saturday metropolitan win since he started training on the Gold Coast with Hodgson (4), has entrusted Robbie Fradd with the ride. This filly is still a maiden however, I think that she has plenty of improvement in her second up run in QLD for the stable.
The Rex Lipp trained Balmaurice (4) is third up this preparation – he was solid last time out here on a Sunday meeting. Ben Thompson has the ride and he has drawn well and will get the run of the race.
Bayerische (6) is trained by Stuart Kendrick and will be partnered by Jimmy Orman. Solid effort last time out in The Phoenix (Listed) over 1500 metres. I think the reduction in distance here this weekend will see him smash the line late.
Oh, hold the phone – here is one that is named well – Perfect Encounter (10) trained by Lindsay Hatch and to be ridden by my little QLD mate Luke Tarrant – he has been MIA on the last few weeks since Origin 1. You see the name of the horse probably is an omen it can win. You must admit State of Origin 1 was the “perfect encounter” for NSW – when the smashed QLD and put 50 points on them. I expect that Mr Tarrant (who looks good in BLUE) will have something to say now – probably something like “WINNO talking smack again” – stay tuned!
Respect for the favourite – Derani (2), the Kacy Fogden trained runner coming off a midweek Doomben win last time out. Stephanie Thornton will ride. Just some concerns here over the longer distance – could be wrong.
Selections:
4 – Balmaurice
6 – Bayerische
8 – Hodgson
10 – Perfect Encounter
Rough chance – (2) Derani & (5) Hot Profit
Race 2 The Ipswich Mile (Listed)
The first leg of the Early Quaddie is over 1666 metres.
I see that Jake Bayliss rides Getyourgreyon (6) for Michel Costa. They combined last time out on the Gold Coast to win over 1400 metres – no drama for mine in the extra distance and has won previously at the track.
Captivator (4) will also have no drama with the distance and is silly odds at $12 with Michael Cahill to ride. He has a solid record on the track as well.
Slow Hands (1) gets in well with the conditions of the race. Steps up to his favourite race distance for the Kelly Schweida yards – Brad Stewart to ride – look for any market moves for this runner.
Masaff (5), to be ridden by Jim Byrne, and Prospectus (10), who will be partnered by Craig Williams (who rode a winning treble last weekend), are the representatives from the Chris Waller Racing yards on the Gold Coast – each of these runners must be respected on their recent efforts.
Selections:
6 – Getyougreyon
4 – Captivator
1 – Slow Hands
5 – Masaff
Rough chance – (10) Prospectus
Race 3 Winter Provincial Stayers Final
2500 metres – a huge field.
The exciting runner Incentivise (2) is trained by Steve Tregea and will be ridden by Anthony Allen again this weekend. He has won he past two starts by a combined total of 16.5 lengths. I do not think it will be like that this weekend, but he obviously looks to be a promising runner.
If he struggles this weekend, I think the only real danger is Accessory (3) who has a tremendous record at the Ipswich track. Trained by Josh Sweeney and to be ridden by Michael Cahill he could cause an upset.
Maybe Barry Lockwood’s runner Isabella’s Spring (5) could cause an upset as well. She just keeps getting better as the distances get longer. Sean Cormack continues his winning association with the mare. She always seems to run solid races her at Ipswich and runs places – 8 seconds and 1 third in 14 starts.
As for the rest take your pick.
Selections:
2 – Incentivise
3 – Accessory
5 – Isabella’s Spring
1 – Tavion Prince
Race 4
A massive field for a No Metro Win race – anything and I say ANYTHING can win this.
Since I gave Luke Tarrant a hurry up in race 1, I had better ask him nicely to get this one home for me here – Red Bloom (9) for the Tony & Maddy Sears Racing team. I like this runner as she is drawn well and is undefeated in four starts here at the track. Last time out she went around in the QTIS Gold Jewel at Eagle Farm. As she was making her run on that occasion she was abruptly checked and lost all momentum. With a fortnight since that run, I expect her to be trained to win this race by the Sears team.
Luna Mia (9), trained by Paul Messara in NSW, was first up in the Coughlan Stakes (Listed) last time out and turned in a solid effort beaten just 2.75 lengths at Eagle Farm. She drops back in grade here and has the services of Craig Williams – who is riding in QLD in sensational form, but he will need to be great to get her home from barrier 19. Back in grade – I am certain he will ensure she gets a cosy run and be competitive at the end of the race.
Westlink (5) is trained by Darren Hyde and this runner stormed home last start at Eagle Farm over 1200 metres. I think that the despite the wide barrier he looks well placed here.
At Witz End (1) trained by Owen Glue and ridden by Ryan Maloney is drawn well and will be in the first half of the field in the running – he could put value into your exotic bets.
Outside of my top two here – anything could fill a place.
Selections:
9 – Red Bloom
8 – Luna Mia
5 – Westlink
1 – At Witz End
Race 5
Tough race here over 1350 metres for three-year-old runners.
I fancy Tumbler Ridge (2) to continue in winning form here for the Steven O’Dea and Matthew Hoysted stables with Baylee Nothdurft to ride. At the set weights he looks ideally placed and, despite not raced here previously, his last start win at Eagle Farm would suggest he will be too good again.
A big watch on the Chris Munce trained Palaisipan (12) who is undefeated in three career starts - two of them here as well – Craig Williams booked to ride and drawn well. There has been solid support for this runner since the markets have been posted. She must have some ability and she has been ideally placed by Munce so far – this is her acid test here.
Our Playboy (3) has the blinkers coming off here this weekend – a big gear change that should enhance his chances. His run last time out in QLD Day (Listed) at Eagle Farm looked better on the video that what it does on paper. He is third up here this weekend with Ben Thompson retaining the ride for Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr).
Palladas (8) is trained by Gollan Racing with Ryan Maloney to ride. Nothing wrong with his run last time out storming home in the Fred Best (Group 3) – he is a serious chance here. Do not underestimate this runner.
Selections:
2 – Tumbler Ridge
8 – Palladas
3 – Our Playboy
12 – Palaisipan
Rough chance – (7) Batangas Entry
Race 6
The first leg of the Quaddie over 1200 metres – at Class 6 with several early scratchings.
I like the Scott Morrisey trained Dr Why Not (5) to be ridden by Madeleine Wishart who claims 3 kilograms. He should be prominent in the running, and he has won here at the track. He does not know how to lie down and will take a power of beating.
Brian Wakefield and Larry Cassidy combine with Roman Aureus (10) who is first up with two nice trials under her belt. She always races well fresh and does like softer tracks – she may get conditions to suit here this weekend and at $10 is good each way value.
Desert Lord (3) resumes here from a 21-week spell for David Vandyke. I think he goes better over longer distances, but his trial on his home track at the Sunshine Coast would suggest he is forward enough to challenge here and win this.
Phantom Falcon (9) loves to lead and resumed with a massive weight on the Gold Coast over 1100 metres and gave nothing else a chance with a huge weight. This weekend Ronnie Stewart will ride this talented runner for trainer Kacy Fodgen.
Selections:
5 – Dr Why Not
10 – Roman Aureus
3 – Desert Lord
9 – Phantom Falcon
Race 7 TAB IPSWICH CUP (Listed)
The feature race over 2150 metres is the first leg of the treble. It is an open race.
Chris Waller has a few runners engaged.
So You Win (2) will be ridden by Luke Dittman and is on the quick back up from last weekend when he worked home well in the Wayne Wilson over a mile. The extra distance will suit him here and he will be difficult to beat.
The stable mate is Humbolt Current (7) who has had a six-week let up after he ran a nice race in the Gold Coast Cup on a wet track. I think the freshen up would have done him good. Craig Williams takes the ride this weekend.
In Good Health (3), trained by Peter Moody, had a three-week gap before coming back from a very good win at Morphettville over 2014m to racing at Eagle Farm over a mile. Stepping back up in distance will suit this mare and she looks the testing material to win this race. Ryan Maloney has the ride here. She will be coming into the race late and may just have a powerful enough sprint to reel them in and surge past them late.
Traduce (13) gets back to a distance that suits him – he may just show up and huge odds.
Selections:
2 – So You Win
3 – In Good Health
7 – Humbolt Current
13 – Traduce
Rough chances – (6) Flash Aah
Race 8 Eye Liner Stakes (Listed)
Over the 1350 metres here for the second leg of the treble – at Listed level.
This race has a history of roughies winning and I expect nothing will change in the 2021 edition.
I really cannot split my top two selections, but I have a slight preference for the Tony Gollan trained Snitch (9) who resumed last time out at Eagle Farm with a massive weight and was travelling into the race when he got held up and lost his momentum and went to the line untested for mine. This weekend Ben Thompson is aboard, drawn well, has won at the track and will appreciate the extra distance - $12 each way for mine is great value.
Then you have the David Vandyke trained Splendoronthegrass (13) who is second up here with Stephanie Thornton to ride. These team combined in the Listed Coughlan Stakes last time out and they were only beaten narrowly in a blanket finish. Splendoronthegrass has won here as well, and the extra distance will suit her.
Who will have bragging rights around the dinner table on Saturday night – Ben or Stephanie? That is the real question here? I am going for Ben to get his dinner paid for this weekend!
Seriously – I think there is nothing between either runner. They both have good form and represent great each way value.
Amish Boy (2) is the early pre-post favourite and to be fair does have the runs on the board with a superb effort in the Fred Best Classic (Group 3) – Craig Williams has the plum ride for the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace stable. I think that the softer surface here enhances his chances.
Axe (10) will be looking to win the race for Jag Guthmann Chester and Michael Costa. He comes off a nice third in the BRC sprint (Group 3) where he was not disgraced in a race where Tofane finished second and then went on to win the Stradbroke last weekend. A four week freshen up and, on a track where he has been successful, it could be a feature win for JAG – good luck mate.
Selections:
9 – Snitch
13 – Spendoronthegrass
10 – The Axe
2 – Amish Boy
Rough chance – (4) Boomsara
Race 9 Gai Waterhouse Classic (Listed)
The last race of the day over 1200 metres is at Listed level.
As there are a few people that will be looking at what I have to say here – I will just get it out of the way straight away! Boomtown Lass (2) – she cannot win this weekend – there I have said it – watch them all SMS and message me once they read this. Here are my reasons – second up at Ipswich – big weight – and I think the barrier may be a hinderance this late in the day. Jimmy Orman will give this Chris Anderson runner every chance – she will be in the finish for sure – I just think I will play wide. IF she wins I will have egg on my face and be the subject of torment from a number of people – but they have been awfully quiet after NSW put 50 on QLD recently – Ner, ner, ner ,ner!
I like the chances of Tony Gollan trained Niedorp (3) with the addition of the blinkers this weekend at around $11. She went around in the Chief De Beers (Listed) last start – had no luck – lost a plate in running and still managed a solid effort. I am just wondering after the recent barrier trial whether they just bounce her out and let her run this weekend and run the opposition into the ground with Georgina Cartwright resuming her association with this mare. She seems to get the best out of her, and I am banking on her getting the job done here in the last race.
Intrepidacious (7) led them up in the Coughlan (listed) and was swamped late. From barrier 11 she may take a sit behind some of the other speed in the race. Craig Williams will be looking to win another feature Fillies & Mares race after he won the last race last weekend at Eagle Farm.
Lillemor (10) won well first up at Randwick over 1100 metres with a massive weight. She gets in well here at the conditions and trainer John O’Shea has engaged Ben Thompson to get the job done. She rates well here.
Gem of Scotland (12) and Kylease (5) are rough chances here in an open race.
Selections:
3 – Niedorp
7 – Intrepidacious
2 – Boomtown Lass
10 - Lillemor
Rough chances – (5) Kylease & (12) Gem of Scotland
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Jockey’s Challenge
Tough field – Ben Thompson and Craig Williams have some nice rides. Maybe have something on Ben Thompson to post a win this weekend.
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)
1,4,5,6 / 2,3,7 / 1,5,8,9 / 2,3,8 - cost is $144 to $1
Value Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)
1,4,6 / 2 / 5,8,9 / 2,3 - cost is $18 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3,5,9,10 / 2,3,7 / 2,9,10,13 / 2,3,5,7,9 - cost is $240 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3,5,10 / 2,3,7 / 2,9,10 / 2,3,7 - cost is $81 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
2,3,7 / 2,9,10,13 / 2,3,5,7,9 - cost is $60 to $1
WINNO V FLEMO
WINNO got FLEMO last weekend in a close contest in our tipping competition. A special shout out to FLEMO and his wife Gabrielle this week. Their little newborn son Jackson has been in hospital for the past few weeks – only returning home this week. Hopefully, he is all sorted and on the road to recovery – much love to you both!
Be sure to check out Facebook on Saturday morning with our updated tips where I will post our selections and any late mail!
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