DOOMBEN 10000 PREVIEW

By Graham Potter | Friday, May 22, 2009

Apache Cat will face the starter as the defending champion in the Doomben 10000 on Saturday. Only two horses – Prince Trialia (in 1990/91) and Falvelon (2001/02) have gone on to complete back to back successes in the big race. Chief De Beers is the only other horse to win two 10000’s. His wins came three years apart in 1995 and 1998.

Apache Cat was on a high coming to Brisbane last year. His surprisingly hard fought win in the BTC Cup was followed by a stunning victory in the Doomben 10000, where he secured his fifth successive Group 1 triumph which equalled the sequence set by Tulloch many years before. While many are of the opinion that Apache Cat would have gone on to win the Stradbroke, trainer Greg Eurell pulled the plug on his campaign at that stage, to save the gelding for future endeavours.

Things haven’t quite gone according to plan since then, but much of the ‘disappointment’ that followed at racetracks as far flung as Sha Tin was more relative to the expectation rather than the result.

That Apache Cat is not the horse he was last year relative to his opposition is not in question. The flat spot he tends to hit in every race is more pronounced now ... his recovery from it, less sure. But he does recover and does kick on – as he did to rally late when he looked to be a lost cause halfway up the straight in the BTC Cup. The edge that has dropped off his ability has been fortified by a more dogged determination. Because of that, he can be just as formidable as we have known him to be, but he is more vulnerable.

But he is far from finished. No less an authority than Damien Oliver has not given up on him. Neither should we.

Not that there is any shortage of opposition lining up to take over Apache Cat’s mantle. Can one of them do it, or can Apache Cat go on to join elite company? Here are detailed form pointers to help with your selection process.


APACHE CAT:
Consider the following statistics of this six-year-old son of Lion Cavern. He is unbeaten in two starts on heavy going. He is two from four on soft going - so he would appear to have Saturday’s underfoot conditions covered. He also has a gun record over this sort of distance and Damien Oliver gives him his vote of confidence.

Weighed against that is the fact the he is not as flash as he was, so he has to do it harder. That has exposed some disturbing tendencies. He hits a flat spot halfway through which costs him, as does the disturbing need to want to lay in under pressure. Hopefully, it is just a bad habit and he is not feeling something.

Judgement call: Should contest the finish. The 10000 double is well within his capability.


SIR SLICK:
They don’t come much tougher, either in terms of constitution or commitment. Runs his heart out and won’t die wondering.

He races for the fourth Saturday in a row. Tough or not, you have to think that schedule will start to take its toll. He is asked to come back some 700m in distance to take on some of the best sprinters around, some of whom are frontrunners – meaning he is unlikely to be allowed the luxury of dictating the speed as he has done over the longer trip. That will work against him. The last time he raced over less than 1400m was in October 2005. This is the horses ninety-eighth start.

Judgement call: Expect to get swallowed up this time.


MARASCO:
Undoubtedly has the class to be competitive, but he is untested on soft going and has had a month in-between runs. That combination of the testing going and a lack of recent match practise puts his claim at risk, particularly over a distance which could just be a touch on the short side for him at this stage of his career.

Does have a prime draw though, a trainer thoroughly versed in what it takes to win in Group 1 company and a jockey whose confidence is on a high after his magnificent results last week.

Judgement call: Should be running on, but might be hard pressed to do enough to make it count.


SNIPERS BULLET:
There has been plenty to like about his two runs back since resuming from a four month layoff.

The former Stradbroke winner will be fitter, now, will appreciate the step up in distance, the soft underfoot conditions will not trouble him at all and he has the perfect draw which should allow his rider to place him just where he wants to be. These are the telling, positive factors in his favour.

The big worry is whether he can reclaim his winning edge. Fighting to win is a habit as much as anything else and when you lose that aggressive instinct, it can leave you as an also-ran. The 2007 Stradbroke was the last time he entered the winners’ enclosure. He has recorded several quality placed finishes since then, but no cigar.

Judgement call: Expect a bold showing but the reward is only likely to be a consolation prize.


COURT COMMAND:
Forget about his stud career. Focus ... this is a serious racehorse.

He was given a good look at the track and distance when winning second-up last week. He is a horse who likes to lead, so he will go forward from the draw. He showed last week just how dangerous it is to leave him alone out front, but then again, his opposition could also come undone by trying to match him early.

Sir Slick and Bank Robber should vie for the early lead with him. If he is allowed to have his way up front, he could again prove difficult to run down. If he can’t dictate, it will be more difficult.

He does handle soft going.

Judgement call: Punished those who doubted him last time with a big tote return. Could again provide good each way value.


ALL SILENT:
Has had genuine excuses in all of his last three starts so is due for some luck in the running.

He will need it as the draw does complicate his task. Drops back marginally in distance which should be in his favour, as will the fact that he handles any going. Very healthy strike-rate indicates he knows how to finish off when he does get close enough to have a shout.

Damien Oliver has ridden him in three out of his last four starts. Craig Williams is just as good ... but the point is Ollie stays with Apache Cat.

Judgement call: Clearly capable of being a major factor in the outcome.


LIGHT FANTASTIC:
A quality genuine Group 1, WFA horse who remains competitive, even though it has been nine months since he last saluted.

The wide barrier draw will place his challenge under pressure early and the soft going could take the sting out of his finish late – if his result in heavy going in the George Ryder is anything to go by. That heavy going result was his worst result in five runs this prep. But it was his only start in heavy going, so that evidence is inconclusive.

Like many in the race, he clearly has the ability to upstage them all if everything goes his way, but race is awkwardly set up for him, leaving him with plenty of work to do.

Judgement call: He doesn’t really know how to run a bad race and is unlikely to do so here, even though circumstances appear to be against him. Could just be short of clout when it matters most.


BLACK PIRANHA:
Has progressed in leaps and bounds since he was last in Queensland in January.

He comes back in distance from 1600m and enters off two superb, Group 1 runner-up finishes behind Vision And Power in the George Ryder and the Doncaster. That is a powerful form-line.

His poor draw is of less importance than it otherwise might have been as he tends to get back anyway and be saved for a rush at the finish. He does possess superb acceleration which he generally displays on cue when asked to quicken.

Expect him to be brought wide in the straight so that he can be allowed to run his own race in uninterrupted fashion.

Seems certain to be making up ground rapidly at the death. The concern is he might launch his challenge from too far back to be able to arrive in time to snatch the main prize.

Judgement call: Big chance.


EMPIRES CHOICE:
Won the 2007 Queensland Derby (over 2400m) and then was out of action for eight months. Had one lack-lustre run in February 2008 and then was off the track for another extended period of fifteen months.

Races second-up here from the worst of the draw over a trip well below his preferred distance.

Did well enough when keen when resuming last time, but he remains a work in progress - a stayer passing through here on his way to a crack at longer distance feature.

Judgement call: The pace should be too hot for him to handle.


DANLEIGH:
Has made a superb return to racing following a long break from action between March 2008 and April 2009. He finished runner up in the Galaxy (over 1100m) and then won the All Aged (over 1400m) – both were in Group 1 company.

Can reasonably be expected to take further improvement out of those runs. He has been allowed a slight breather since then, having not raced for a month. That let-up should have benefitted him.

Again, the Oliver factor is present. Damien Oliver rode this horse in both of his starts since resuming. He now takes the ride on Apache Cat, leaving the way open for Corey Brown to pick up the ride here.

Remember, it was Corey Brown who won on Apache Cat in this race last year. Both Apache Cat and Brown are chasing back to back wins in this race. They can’t both win it, unless Apache Cat and Danleigh dead-heat. If the two go to the line together, you can expect a finish as spirited as we saw in the both the previous Group 1’s at Doomben in the last two weeks.

Judgement call: Outstanding form since resuming looks set to continue. Expect to be right there.


SOMETHING ANYTHING:
Needed first-up run when resuming last time. Did attract some betting support on that occasion. Will be better for that experience and the soft going will also be a plus for him.

He does look short of outright fire-power relative to the big guns amongst the opposition here though.

Judgement call: Likely to have settle for a minor role.


BANK ROBBER:
The key to his race is just how much he can get away with early in the likely speed battle with Court Command and Sir Slick. With his natural speed, pole position will certainly be a huge advantage.

The danger is that if the battle is too competitive too early, he could be found out late, but you can be assured he will be fighting fit for this and he won’t be giving anything away lightly.

Nearly made all of the running in the BTC Cup when racing first-up. The extra ground and underfoot conditions are of no concern. The stable’s number one jockey is back in action.

Judgement call: Has winning credentials but is likely to face a pressurised run all the way. As such, he could be found wanting late.


JUNGLE RULER:
Heavy or soft going seems to be his only major advantage. Another point to note is that his last win came when he was backing up, as he does here.

Overall form looks well short of what is required here.

Judgement call: Others have far better credentials.


MR SLICK:
He is well-above average. He is as consistent as any owner would wish for and he is game and honest - but he has yet to convince that he is a Group 1 contender.

Check any of his stats and you will be impressed. There are all big numbers in the right places but those results have been achieved in lesser company. There is no reason why he cannot stand up and be counted, but, in that context, this is an intimidating task for him. This is his first Group race and he jumps right to the top level at WFA terms.

He is one that you will applaud for his reward if he gets there, but it is hard to put the money down before he confirms he is at Group level.

Judgement call: Allow that he can surprise, but it’s better to sit this one out.


DUPORTH:
One of two three-year-olds in the race. He flew up late to snatch the BTC Cup way from Bank Robber in the shadow of the post last time. That was his first Group 1 success, a result he had been threatening for some time. Only needs to repeat that effort to again be a factor.

It often pays to follow winners in their next start during the Carnival and you would certainly expect him to carry on from last time. The slow to heavy track is probably not what he is looking for though and that could restrict his progress as he likes to build momentum with a sustained run to the line.

Expect to follow the same quiet tactics he employed successfully in the BTC Cup, which does mean he might also need some luck in the running.

Judgement call: Should again make his presence felt. This time it could end in a minor placing.


ABSOLUT GLAM:
Three fair results this prep in steady build-up without anything to get excited about. Gear changes have suggested the trainer is still trying to find the key to her this time around.

The extra ground will be to her liking. The going is of no concern ... but the wide barrier draw is.

We know she is better than her recent results suggest.

Judgement call: She could bounce back big time here. Underestimate at your own peril.


OVER THE WICKET:
Three-year-old tackling quality older opposition. Seldom runs a bad race but very low strike rate does suggest he has limitations in this sort of company.

Must rate accordingly.

Judgement call: Not this time.

CONCLUSION: Half of the field can justifiably claim outright winning chances, but class tends to shine through in races like this.

FINAL SELECTION: 1 Apache Cat; 2 Danleigh; 3 Black Piranha; 4 Court Command.

SUGGESTED BIG RACE TRIFECTA:
The suggested trifecta cost $96.00 Percentages of that can be taken as suits the pocket.

Apache Cat, Danleigh, Black Piranha, Court Command – to win!

Apache Cat, Danleigh, Black Piranha, Court Command, All Silent – for second placing.

Apache Cat, Danleigh, Black Piranha, Court Command, All Silent, Absolut Glam, Duporth and Bank Robber – for third placing.

The Doomben 10000 trifecta of Apache Cat (first), Black Piranha (second) and All Silent (third) returned a dividend of $709,00 on the Queensland tote.

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