ORTENSIA PUTS HER REPUTATION ON THE LINE

By Graham Potter | Friday, June 19, 2009

The Group 1 Winter Stakes takes pride of place at Eagle Farm tomorrow. The question is whether it will provide the stage for Ortensia to confirm she is the best filly in the land or whether a another runner drawn from a host of contenders happy to put up their hands can upstage the main fancy and give cause for a re-evaluation of her status.

Ortensia has won two out of her three starts in her Winter Carnival campaign. She trounced her rivals in scintillating fashion in the Listed Glenlogan Park Stakes over 1350m. She then prevailed by the narrowest of margins in a pressurised must-win contest in the QTC Cup, a result which qualified her for the Stradbroke where she put in an enormous effort to claim a superb third placing, close-up behind Black Piranha and Danleigh.

Ortensia is comfortable ridden back in the running, so her wide draw should be no real disadvantage. Craig Williams will walk the track before-hand. He will bring all of his formidable weight of knowledge of track surfaces into play and he will direct Ortensia onto the best going to give her the best chance. Williams and Ortensia set the benchmark. That is what the others have to beat.

So who could be first in line to try and knock Ortensia over? Here the pecking order is not so clear-cut.

Forensics, Chinchilla Rose, Absolut Glam and Express Air make the short-list.

Forensics, apart from her obvious class, needs to be considered on the basis that she is an infinitely better horse on good going, where she has won five out of ten starts, than she is when the underfoot conditions are soft or heavy, as it was in her last two outings. The type of improvement that can be expected can best be gauged from her results in the Group 1 Meyer Classic and the Group 2 Canterbury Stakes raced on good and dead going respectively. She won with some authority in the Classic over 1600m and then finished second. 0.30 lengths behind the highly rated All Silent over 1300m in the Canterbury Stakes. The expected better going should again lead to a better result. She should have every chance.

Chinchilla Rose stormed home in the Dane Ripper last time over this track and distance when backing up from the Chief De Beers Handicap. The extra ground and the race tempo made a difference to the grey when going from the 1100m of the Chief De Beers to the 1400m of the Dane Ripper. The mare was scratched from Ipswich last week, which means she comes into the contest with a three month gap between runs. If that break has not taken the edge off her performance, this Steel Ryan trained four-year-old could well trouble the main fancy.

Absolute Glam, who won this race last year, should be right in the mix when the runners have to stand up and be counted inside the final 200m. Her fifth placed finish in the Stradbroke was full of merit. Ortensia only beat her home by 1.40 lengths - and that with Absolut Glam carrying 2.5kg more than Ortensia. Absolut Glam is now 1kg worse off with Ortensia. That weight difference, coupled with the fact that Absolut Glam might prefer a slighter shorter trip than this, means the latter will have to lift her game if she is to have a major say. Still, she needs to be shown due respect.

Express Air bounced back to her best form when taking out the Queensland Guineas a fortnight ago. Like Ortensia, she represents the younger generation coming through, and she could well be better than rated as she has always shown enormous potential but her rating has been pulled down due to her being disappointing (sometimes with good reason) on occasions along the way. If she has can build on that last effort, she can have a say.

Four other runners are thrown into the selection (see below) to try and put some value in the trifecta dividend.

SUGGESTED BIG RACE TRIFECTA:
Percentages can be taken as suits the pocket.

Forensics, Absolut Glam, Chinchilla Rose, Ortensia - to win!

Forensics, Absolut Glam, Chinchilla Rose, Ortensia, Express Air - for second placing.

Forensics, Absolut Glam, Chinchilla Rose, Illuminates, Jacqueqline Rouge, Imananabaa, Russeting, Ortensia, Express Air - for third placing.

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