MY CALL - HAY LIST A 'GOOD THING' IF HE RUNS IN THE STRADBROKE

By David Fowler | Tuesday, May 17, 2011

David Fowler is the principal thoroughbred caller for Radio TAB, taking the position upon Wayne Wilson's retirement last August. David, who is a keen form student and punter, has enjoyed a lifetime involvement in the racing media. His personal blog, ‘My Call’, appears exclusively on HRO.

Message from David to John...stay one more day!

The message is from me to John McNair to plead with him to keep Hay List in town for the $1m AAMI Stradbroke at Eagle Farm on June 11.

No point taking a backward step here. Hay List is a "good thing" if it runs in Queensland's most important race.

McNair seems to be treading water on a Straddy tilt and will weigh up the options after the Doomben 10,000 on Saturday week. His main concern is giving the champion sprinter enough time to prepare for the spring.

John, you have a happy and healthy horse with a $1million race in your present backyard in just under a month. If he starts, he will be the favourite and, in my book, will win the race.

History must always serve as the most reliable guide to the future and history tells us front-runners and, to a lesser extent high-weighted horses, don't win modern-day Stradbrokes. Accepted.

But this is Hay List and he is a champion sprinter.

Granted Black Caviar is a "better" champion (what other way can I put it) than Hay List but it's worth remembering when she sweeps by Hay List, the third horse is always four to five lengths away.

This sort of phenomenon hasn't been seen in modern times.

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Is Sincero worthy of being equal Stradbroke favourite at six bucks with Hay List?

I doubt it.

The stats of eight from 11 are impressive and, again, using history as a yardstick, the late
three-year-olds have a fine strike rate in the Stradbroke.

There might be an X-factor lurking there but I'm not convinced. I thought he wastradesmanlike in the Scone Guineas without being dominant.

And there's no guarantee of him securing a start without winning a race like the QTC Cup which is a mock race for Straddy hopefuls . Presently, he is 41st in order of entry with 49.5kg.

So $6 seems poor value in my book.

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Prepost or all-in betting can be a hazardous business but if you keep it under control, it can be fun as well.

Nothing better seeing your prices tumble in after you've snapped up some big odds.

So one last word on the Stradbroke from a betting point of view. Beaded at $12 bucks on Tattsbet looks good value to me.

She's a top class mare, assured of a start, and the Eagle Farm 1400m is ideal.

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This weekend's Doomben Cup isn't throwing up too many surprises.

The form out of the Hollindale at the Gold Coast last Saturday week is clearly the yardstick and My Kingdom Of Fife and Glass Harmonium look set for another keen battle.

One wouldn't think anything that finished behind them could turn the tables.

The $10 hope Shootoff is the wildcard. He won on a bog at Randwick during the Carnival but proved he wasn't a one-trick pony when he easily won the Lord Mayor's Cup at Canterbury on a track which bordered on good.

His main mission is the Queensland Derby, a race this year that doesn't look to have great depth.

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Oh what a difference a week makes.

I was at Morphettville for their Super Sunday meeting and, yes, on paper it was a great card.

But it was Mothers Day and it's a Sunday. Experience tells me people go racing on Saturdays and they don't go on Sundays especially when it is Mothers Day.

The result was an attendance of only 2300. The sooner they switch back to a Saturday the better.

And there was a 20,000 people loving every moment of it at Doomben on Saturday which has been well documented.

If you there, you won't forget May 14 2011 for a long time.

Hope to see you at Doomben again this Saturday.

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