MY CALL - BOOK-END RESULTS HAD PUNTERS HOPPING MAD AT DOOMBEN LAST SATURDAY

By David Fowler | Tuesday, August 9, 2011

David Fowler is the principal thoroughbred caller for Radio TAB, taking the position upon Wayne Wilson's retirement last August. David, who is a keen form student and punter, has enjoyed a lifetime involvement in the racing media. His personal blog, ‘My Call’, appears exclusively on HRO.

It was the book-ends of the program that had the punters hopping mad at Doomben last Saturday.

Why did Red Royal "not get out" in the opener and how did Leapfrog turn its form around in the space of one run and land a betting move in the last. (Note the term "betting move" not "plunge" which is the most overused word to describe betting these days apart from "big go" and "backed off the map" etc etc)

Race tracks are like drunken parties. You often think the next day after a big night out, "why did I say that".

It's the same at the track. Our first thoughts are not necessarily our best (except when calling photo finishes)

But as we know hindsight is a wonderful thing and it's handy to use it sometimes when reviewing racing incidents.

I must admit I was pretty keen on Red Royal because I thought from barrier one he would lead and dictate the race.

But you can do all the homework, speed maps and the like but when the starter says go it can be a completely different ball game.

I thought Larry Cassidy might have shown a little more aggression in protecting the rails, but he's not the first jockey to half grab hold and find himself shuffled back around the first turn at Doomben when widely-drawn runners push forward.

But where Cassidy cannot be blamed - and I reckon this is the clincher – is ending up one position further back on the fence when All The Torque cut him off at the crucial first bend (All The Torque's jockey was later suspended).

So then Red Royal is three back on the fence and for his backers the alarm bells started to ring.

I really couldn't see how he could get to the outside to launch a raid which has been a popular talking point.

And what compounded Cassidy's dilemma is that he is not just held up in the straight, but "badly held up". It is never a good look when that happens.

And when the average punter sees that sort of scenario he or she automatically think that if there was a clear run, they would catapult out and zoom home. Not always but, in this case, inconclusive.

FOWLERS VERDICT: Red Royal was a victim of circumstances.

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Leapfrog has always carried a profile of sorts because he is a multiple city winner.

When you carry that sort of baggage, your racing performances command more attention from the general public because more often than not you are prominent in the betting market.

I, like many, was surprised with the form turnaround from the lack-lustre effort over the 1000m at the same track three weeks ago. I said as much in my call.

But let's bring hindsight into the ball game once again and it tells us a few things.

Leapfrog is a brilliant barrier horse and with the one alley, he is a certain leader. How often does a leader win? The answer is often.

And with the absence of a lot of high speed drawn on his left, Leapfrog is going to cruise in front. And that he did with a 35.22 first split which is more than generous at open grade level.

So with a soft lead and Larry Cassidy riding a fitter second-up Leapfrog is going to be competitive because, after all, he is not legless.

Would there have been as much brouhaha if he had eased from $8 to $12 instead of firming from $8 to $5? I doubt it.

Even his trainer Bruce Hill who calls a spade a spade admitted he didn't support him and thought he was a risk at a strong 1200m.

Many of us in the racing game like to think we get it right most of the time. Alas, we don't.

FOWLERS VERDICT: Pay more respect to leaders.

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Our RadioTab fixed price service on Saturday mornings provides great leads for punters.

OK, it's my gig in providing the prices and the analysis but the information at my
disposal should be treated with plenty of respect.

Money speaks all languages and if you haven't woken up to that by now you shouldn't be punting.

We have the opportunity to see how much is invested at the fixed odds on each horse and trends start when trading begins on Thursday.

And those trends are generally consistent. For example, if there is no interest in a short priced favourite on Thursday or Friday, it rarely changes on Saturday morning.

Beaten favorite Work The Room is a great case in point.

So the 10.30 analysis can you tell where the money is and where the money isn't.

History also shows the service will throw up some long-priced winners that are found early at the fixed odds.

Fixed odds betting is going through the roof so our service at 9.30 and 10.30 is well worth listening to.

It doesn't pretend to be tipping winners but the leads can be very handy.

Until next week.

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