MY CALL - IT'S TIME TO CONSIDER A FEW EARLY WAGERS

By David Fowler | Tuesday, September 20, 2011

David Fowler is the principal thoroughbred caller for Radio TAB, taking the position upon Wayne Wilson's retirement last August. David, who is a keen form student and punter, has enjoyed a lifetime involvement in the racing media. His personal blog, ‘My Call’, appears exclusively on HRO.

It’s that time of year … sorting the wheat from the chaff.

The August, early September racing rarely sheds a strong light on the big gun Carnival races. In fact, it's normally a good time for the B-Listers to snatch some prize-money that will be too hard to get in October and November.

But we're getting to a point in the interstate features where the form is becoming disclosed enough to maybe have some early wagers at the fixed odds on offer.

Well, I am anyway and I thought I might share some thoughts today on some possible big race winners.

Of course, the odds are so relevant when you're trying to stab a winner in these races.

A good yardstick in assessing value on this front is whether you think the horse's price will be any better on the day.

There is the chance your horse won't start and with all-in betting it's cash gone, but it's a risk you're fully aware of.

I was very happy to take $5.50 about ATLANTIC JEWEL in the Thousand Guineas.

I made my move on this price after watching the Thousand Guineas Prelude on Saturday where her main dangers slugged it out.

Wasn't impressed with the race … bunched finish and average time and average sectionals.

ATLANTIC JEWEL steamrolled a field at Moonee Valley a week earlier and her times and sectionals were excellent on a relative basis that day.

The form of the Thousand Guineas is now quite well exposed and I can't possibly see ATLANTIC JEWEL being any longer that $5.50. In fact I think she will run a short-priced favourite.

Peter Moody says a Caulfield Guineas start is no guarantee, but I was happy enough to snap up $8 about MOMENT OF CHANGE.

Hate this expression because it's used so often, but there is an X-Factor here.

Walloped them at Murtoa (where?) and was never out of second gear at a Sandown mid-weeker last Wednesday … and he has such a fluent stride!

I don't expect him to go backwards and if he wins or races strongly in the Bill Stutt Stakes at Moonee Valley on Friday week, the $8 will be off and gone.

GREEN MOON toughed it out to win the Newcastle Cup last Thursday and is now set for the Metropolitan at Randwick on Saturday week.

The Metrop these days is never a hard race to win and the $13 appealed strongly. Put it this way, he can't possibly be any longer.

That might be hard to get soon because others betting on this race had prices of $6 and $10.

He can stay and he is in good hands.

And, finally, I'm more than happy to back SCARLET LADY to win the Caulfield Cup in a month's time.

We know she stays, and stays well, courtesy of her hollow Queensland Oaks win.

And her preparation is ticking over well after a handy first-up run in New Zealand.

I liked her Underwood Stakes performance. After a check at the 1400m, she went to the line resolutely but not with great dash, something I like about a horse being set for a 2400m assignment.

And in a race devoid of early pace, she was sectionally dominant in the Underwood which further underlines the merit in the performance.

Can't help you with the Cox Plate (too hard) and the Melbourne Cup (too early) but the quartet of “D. Fowler stable stars” mentioned above might help you make a buck or two this spring.

Until next week.

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