MY CALL - PICKING A MELBOURNE CUP WINNER

By David Fowler | Monday, October 31, 2011

David Fowler is the principal thoroughbred caller for Radio TAB. David, who is a keen form student and punter, has enjoyed a lifetime involvement in the racing media. His personal blog, ‘My Call’, appears exclusively on HRO.

Treat the Melbourne Cup like it was the Sandgate Open Handicap … that's in doing the form on the race.

It's impossible not to get caught up in the hoopla of Melbourne Cup fever with parties and race meetings and the like. It's a great Australian thing, but if you stick to the same principles in doing the form on the Melbourne Cup … like, say, the Sandgate Open Handicap, it sets a reasonable foundation for finding the winner.

Some of these principles we will apply here in our special Melbourne Cup day blog and then we will include some that particularly apply to the Melbourne Cup.

Hopefully, we will end up with four selections that you can place your betting around.

A great way to do the form is to work backwards. In other words, get rid of the ones that can't win one by one using your usual form techniques.

A former top trot bookie Terry Christison once said to me when framing a market on a race, price the favourite last. It gives you a better perspective on whether you have your first pick at the right odds once you have priced every other runner.

First and foremost, eliminate horses who have no possible chance. Yes, long-shots get up but in the Melbourne Cup of these days it is highly unlikely.

So we take out: PRECEDENCE, HAWK ISLAND, SHAMROCKER, THE VERMINATOR and OLDER THAN TIME.

Five out, 19 still to load into the form bank. Beauty!

The next elimination rule is one of my own and it's fairly ruthless, but overall the odds have been in my favour. Drop out overseas visitors who have not had a start in Australia prior to the big dancecard on Tuesday.

Often they are also partnered by visiting jockeys who sometimes handle the pressure less than the thoroughbreds they are steering.

So we take out JUKEBOX JURY, FOX HUNT, RED CADEAUX, LOST IN THE MOMENT and MODUN.

Down to 14.

Now you have to apply everyday principles such as current form, weights and barriers. They also play a key role in a testing two miles in this world event.


This is purely my personal opinion but I feel this next bracket cannot win and certainly will be hard pressed to run a place.

The Fowler scratching pen goes through DRUNKEN SAILOR (plugger) , GLASS HARMONIUM (distance risk), MANIGHAR (been there and failed before), ILLO (not the Cummings preparation we know for a Melbourne Cup), MOYENNE CORNICHE and SAPTAPADI (stable-mates and not good enough), TULLAMORE (distance risk like GLASS HARMONIUM).

We are left with seven Melbourne Cup candidates to concentrate on. I have to pen three to get to my final four and this is where things get tricky.

If you want to box seven it costs $210 for the $1 unit in a trifecta.

With some reluctance I now leave out UNUSUAL SUSPECT, LUCAS CRANACH and MOURAYAN.

I'm now left with the French artillery of AMERICAIN and DUNADEN and the Aussie hopefuls of AT FIRST SIGHT and NIWOT.

Nice balance, you might say.

I'm going to select No 23 NIWOT to win the Melbourne Cup because his win in Saturday's Lexus was impressive. You have a happy and healthy Cup horse on the eve of the event.

He is carrying a lightweight, likes Flemington and is proven at two miles.

No 1 AMERICAIN and NO 2 DUNADEN are the market leaders with AMERICAIN out to defend his title and DUNADEN coming through the impressive Geelong Cup performance.

You can be assured both will race boldly while No 17 AT FIRST SIGHT might not have had the best of preparations for the Cup but his Bendigo Cup second last Wednesday was an "eye-catcher".

They are my thoughts.

Hope you have a great Melbourne Cup day.

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