ROB’S SHOUT – NEWSFLASH, NOT ALL SHORT-PRICED FAVOURITES ARE GOOD THINGS!
By Robert Heathcote | Thursday, December 8, 2011
Robert Heathcote is the leading racehorse trainer in Brisbane. 'Rob's Shout' - the personal blog of the multi-premiership winning trainer will appear every Thursday on HRO.
Hello once again to everyone,
Maybe I was the villain of the local racing scene last Saturday when two of my horses knocked off short-priced favourites.
It seems that the constant whinge by the 'beaten favourites in Brisbane brigade' is still out there with its members beating their drum!
I get a little irritated by such whinging whether it's coming from some of the local media outlets or the punters who like to moan about their losses on the many racing forums.
I guess the one common denominator that will always exist in horse racing and punting is the right of everyone to have their own opinion! There's nothing wrong with that and, at the end of the day, as it's what punting is all about … doing your form, weighing up all of the variables that exist in any horse race and investing wisely and hopefully successfully!
However, I don't believe that is always the case as I often see too many horses going around at under their rightful odds. I know as I have had a number of them myself where I could not believe the silly prices being bet and the huge amount of money going on my runners when I did not think they represented such odds.
Maybe it's because I am having a good level of success and Jimmy Byrne has been riding a lot of winners for me, but often I believe many of my runners are often under their rightful odds.
I know this situation occurred down south with Pete Moody and Luke Nolen due to their incredible success last season and when Pete had an ordinary day, the
punters all cried blue murder if a few favs went over!
Just recently I had a two-year-old make his debut that was backed into favouritism and, whilst I stated live on radio that he had ability, I felt a raced juvenile with ability would be winning … and that's what happened.
Red God raced on the same day over 2200m. He's never won past 1800m so he was a risk. He went around a short, well-backed favourite running third and beaten under half-a-length. The connections and I were happy with his run and yet the punters lamented about another beaten favourite and the horse copped a roasting for getting beaten … but, as his trainer, I liked his run.
Take the case of my two metro winners, Racing Heart and Hidden Kisses, from last Saturday. Both beat hot favourites.
Racing Heart beat the $1.55 chance Rundle. He started at 4-1 yet Racing Heart was 2kg better off at the weights with Rundle. Last time out Rundle was the $1.40 favourite and Racing Heart was priced at $3.60 … a very similar price difference to Saturday.
Doesn't anybody do a weight analysis anymore? Doesn't anybody think that a 2kg pull makes a difference over 2400m?
Sure, Rundle was expected to be better suited over the 2400m on breeding, one being a Galileo and my lad being a Show A Heart, but one thing is for certain, my fella is as tough as they come and always gives a one hundred percent … and that's exactly what he did on Saturday.
Throw in the fact that the track had just a touch of give in it which also suited my horse better and Jimmy’s ride was spot on … and so the stars lined up. In the end it was only a slender margin, but the point is Racing Heart was maybe entitled to turn the tables on the short-priced favourite without any sobbing coming from the back of the grandstand.
We all know the bookies don't pay on close seconds!
Hidden Kisses beat the short-priced favourite Thefifthhole. Hidden Kisses was a last start winner in a Class 6 Fillies & Mares and had previously underlined her ability by performing admirably during last year's Winter Carnival where she was good enough to finish within 4.50 lengths of the very useful Scarlet Lady.
Thefifthhole had won a Class 3 at the Gold Coast and a No Metro Win at Eagle Farm in his last two starts. Thefifthhole started at $1.80. Hidden Kisses started at 14-1. Conceivably she should have won both her runs back and yet no one rated her on the odds. Go Figure!
I have no doubt the John Morrisey’s horse, Thefifthhole, has the ability to go on with it, but he will also tell you as they go up in grade and class … it does get harder to win.
The point once again is, whatever the race’s outcome, $1.80 as opposed to $14.00 did not accurately reflect the respective chances of these two runners, so harping on about beaten favourites is going down the wrong road.
I think many of the punters are not actually doing the form properly and tend to be following the bagman and the flow of money?
Another favourite beaten in Brisbane? No drama.
In general, it doesn't mean there is anything wrong except possibly for the prices and the strategy of those who follow prices blindly.
Of course there will be surprises and occasions where mistakes are made. That is because, like punters, jockeys can make errors of judgement and horses are not machines … but to whinge about the whole scene ‘all the time' is not the right call and I believe it wrongly paints an unhealthy picture about the Brisbane racing
scene.
We do have great racing here exemplified by the cracking field in the George Moore on Saturday. We do have professional, qualified stewards who do an excellent job policing the industry. We do have many quality jockeys and trainers and, whilst the industry is not perfect all of the time, I am content that that we are heading in a good direction!
Knockers in this caper … dont ya just love em?
I would love to see a few of the knockers on our local scene put the knives away and embrace what in fact we do have.
On a more positive note, I was delighted with the warm response I got from out Kiwi friends over my blog from last week. It is always good to foster positive relationships that help make the industry stronger in the long term.
I was chuffed to even get a personal letter from Sir Patrick Hogan which I thought was a nice touch.
Cheers,
Robert
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