LARRY'S VIEW - PIECING TOGETHER THE FORM PUZZLE

By Larry Cassidy | Friday, May 18, 2012

Larry Cassidy currently has forty-two Group 1 successes behind his name. He is a multiple Premiership winning jockey having taken out three titles in Sydney and one in Brisbane. Larry’s View, the personal blog of this top class rider will appear on horseracingonly.com.au every Friday, workload permitting.

The Carnival has really started to heat up with Sea Siren’s sizzling display last week setting the Group 1 standard.

While the John O’Shea trained runner was the obvious standout in the race (as winners usually are) punters generally find it more difficult to evaluate the merits of the results of some of the beaten runners as they look to piece together the form puzzle going forward.

To me there are certain factors that point to a positive future outcome. I’ll just mention a few of them.

Horses that make up ground against the established pattern of racing on the day are one of those factors.

At Doomben the other day it was hard to make ground up from behind, so any horse that did so to any significant degree … even if it finished up to six lengths behind the winner … would be worth a second glance looking ahead. If it was producing something that went against the established track bias on the day that would translate into a satisfactory and even promising performance even though the horse didn’t finish in the money.

Going to a bigger track like Eagle Farm, where there is likely to be less of a track bias, would bring that type of horse right into contention and then there can be no surprise when it challenges for the honours.

A similar case can be made for a horse that was drawn badly and had to go back at the start. If the horse had to ridden quieter or just simply got too far back because of the draw that must be taken into account and, again if he is making up ground in the straight, give him credit for that.

This scenario can happen even where there is no track bias and, if you know the horse has the gate speed to run closer and he gets a better draw next time, he is entitled to run a vastly improved race. You then have got to include that horse because you know they are going to put themselves a good couple of lengths closer to where they were.

The old saying, ‘barriers win races’ does have substance, so beware of a horse having a change of luck with his barrier position.

The trick here, in simple terms, is to look for horses that have been disadvantaged for some reason and now have had that disadvantage removed.

Another point to consider are horses racing on fresh legs.

Sea Siren was a case in point. Obviously they’d backed off her halfway through the Sydney Carnival to save her for these races. She was on fresh legs last Saturday, in fact I think she was probably underdone going into the race so to do what she did shows she has exceptional ability.

You will find a lot of these visiting horses haven’t raced through the Sydney Carnival. They’ve either started the Sydney Carnival and then they’ve backed off or they’ve chimed in three quarters of the way through the Sydney Carnival and then missed a week or two on the basis that they were looking to come up here and run in our big races.

Those horses, and obviously some of the locals, are on fresher legs than some others and that can also be a factor in the outcome.

Also, don’t draw a line through a horses name just because it has had an injury setback. Just as the better horses are able to overcome interference in the running, it also seems they somehow are better equipped to overcome injury than an average horse.

So those a just a few pointers to help punters out. Understand if there was any track bias on the day when you are weighing up the results. Bring a change of track into play … will the bigger Eagle Farm track suit the horse better than the tighter Doomben circuit? Don’t underestimate either the positive or negative value of the barrier draw or what a horse can do on fresh legs and don’t be too put off by any setbacks a horse may suffer along the way.

The final and perhaps overriding tip in the search for winners is … there is little substitute for intense research which will reveal much of the information you are looking for.

Simply translated that means ... watch lots of videos!

Till next week,
Larry

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