MY CALL - WILL SHE RUN? WON'T SHE RUN?

By David Fowler | Tuesday, May 29, 2012

David Fowler is the principal thoroughbred caller for Radio TAB. David, who is a keen form student and punter, has enjoyed a lifetime involvement in the racing media. His personal blog, ‘My Call’, appears exclusively on HRO.

The Sea Siren soap opera provides an interesting sidelight to the Stradbroke lead up.

Will she run? Won't she run? This theatre emanates from a decision to penalise Sea Siren 1.5kg after her resounding Doomben 10,000 triumph on the weekend.

The matter was a prickly one for connections, but made even thornier when Black Pirahna and Albert The Fat were ruled out which raised the weights by one kilo.

So Sea Siren will now carry 55kg in the Stradbroke and achieve a weight-carrying record for a filly if she happens to win.

As she sits precariously as a $5 or $5.50 Straddy favourite, pre-post fixed odds betting is just as precarious.

If you think she is a moral, you run the risk of doing your dough but if there is the chance she doesn't line-up, you're getting inflated odds about her rivals because it is all-in betting.

There was an amusing sidelight to this whole scenario when owner Keith Biggs vowed and declared she would not run in the Stradbroke if she incurred a 10,000 penalty.

Nice one, Keith but you've been around too long to think that would work!

Two days later Keith had amended his charge to a "wait and see until next Tuesday".

And that's fair enough. It's of no interest to Keith, John O'Shea or Jim Cassidy in regards to the pre-post betting and its dynamics.

Will she run? Of course she will!

The Stradbroke was earmarked as her prime winter target. Don't you think two Group One wins along the way have only bolstered their confidence.

A happy and healthy horse isn't going to walk away from a $1 million race in her
temporary backyard.

And the weight issue is misleading in some ways. Fillies such as Canterbury Belle, Dane Ripper and Private Steer won their Stradbrokes when the limits were significantly lower.

Two weeks ago I said she'd win the Doomben 10,000 after the BTC Cup performance. The Stradbroke … I'm not as certain.

Happy to keep squirreling away something on Wealth Princess at the $13 to $15 range.

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Surely Brambles and Vatuvei will quinella the Queensland Derby on Saturday week.

It was a case of "time and margins" in the Grand Prix, but in another capacity to
illustrate the above point.

Brambles beat Vatuvei by a clear space. Vatuvei beat Red Shift by a clear space and they ran a race record.

Peter Moody says there is a bit more in the locker with Brambles and Vatuvei was having his first run in a month and coming back from 2800m of the St Leger win.

Do you think anything … including SA Derby winner Zabeelionaire … is going to turn the tables on Saturday week?

There is no fat in the odds on offer but I reckon it's a certain quinella.

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This week's Oaks is a ripper.

A big field loaded with several winning hopes.

I originally spruiked Hula Lua at attractive odds but the more I watch the Roses replay, the more I am warming to Quintissential.

The 2400m really looks tailor-made for her.

And, in closing, Sizzling is a good thing to win both the Sires Produce and T.J. Smith.

Enough confidence for one week. Enjoy the racing on Saturday.

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