MY CALL - I'M STICKING WITH WEALTH PRINCESS FOR THE STRADBROKE
By David Fowler | Tuesday, June 5, 2012
David Fowler is the principal thoroughbred caller for Radio TAB. David, who is a keen form student and punter, has enjoyed a lifetime involvement in the racing media. His personal blog, ‘My Call’, appears exclusively on HRO.
No rain dances please.
I'm sticking with Wealth Princess to win this week's Stradbroke but my confidence was dented slightly with the "just behind the placegetters" run in the Dane Ripper.
My close mates, who know I've backed her, were talking her up to me post race saying the heavy track and the big weight didn't help her cause. I'd like to believe them.
And the more I think about it, their analysis is probably on the money.
She loomed large then peaked but (a) back to a firmer surface (b) down 6.5kg and (c) an expected fast tempo are three damn good reasons I've got the smile back on my face.
Sea Siren, who will accept tomorrow, deserves to be favourite and I think the $5.50 presently on offer is the best you will get. She has to be favourite and I'll be surprised if she doesn't run around the $4 mark on race-day.
Buffering and Tiger Tees will hold their market positions strongly because they are in-form, on pace wet trackers. Right ticks in the right boxes for whatever track is presented on Saturday.
But maybe a cross at the end of a testing 1400m Stradbroke!
Worth keeping in mind that last year's Straddy was run at "bowling club" pace so it's not a given anymore that they will break their necks for the first half mile.
Other key market players are Mental and Torio's Quest. I get less excited about Mental every day and Torios Quest was run down fair and square by Riva De Lago at Scone.
Can he win the Stradbroke on that? Not for mine.
I've been with Wealth Princess from the get-go and am happy to stick.
Go girl!
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Off with the head and on goes the pumpkin.
Well, something like that, but after I tipped Quintessential to win the Oaks in last week's blog I dropped off when the rain came and got too excited about Dowager Queen.
Can Quintessential bounce back in the week and snare the Derby? You couldn't knock her because she won too easily and, remember, on a surface that was probably undesirable.
Again, I have no reason to change my thinking from last week that Vatuvei and Brambles will be dominant at the end of the 2400m in the Derby.
And Vatuvei will be ultra strong at 2400m keeping in mind his 2800m St Leger win at Flemington.
Happy to have him as top pick and $4.5 on Tattsbet looks handy.
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I pointed out last week that Sizzling would win the Sires Produce - T.J. Smith double. So far we are on track.
Funny though, he hasn't put a foot wrong in this unbeaten campaign, but I keep thinking the $1.80 in the T.J. is on the skinny side.
He'll probably win and I hope he does for Kelso Wood. Great trainer with a great strike rate and he deserves a Group One, apart from it being a ripper result for the Queenslanders.
Boban has me scared through. The time and the opposition was plain in The Phoenix, but he looked the real deal as he speared away over the last 200m.
I just can't line him up, but punters wouldn’t go far wrong taking the $5.50 each-way.
Academus can't beat Sizzling and these last minute blow-ins are kidding themselves on what I have seen.
Sizzling or Boban. A skinny quinella but maybe a fairly certain collect.
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In closing, all eyes are on the weather.
The forecast is generally fine and let's hope a shower or two means exactly that and we can achieve a dead 5 or slow 6 surface on Saturday.
This is our biggest race day. Professionally, it's my biggest day as well and the word "mistake" doesn't appear in my dictionary.
Hope to see you there and hope you have a winning day.
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