MY CALL - CUMANI CAN QUINELLA THE CUP
By David Fowler | Monday, November 5, 2012
David Fowler is the principal thoroughbred caller for Radio TAB. David, who is a keen form student and punter, has enjoyed a lifetime involvement in the racing media. His personal blog, ‘My Call’, appears exclusively on HRO.
While it is THE race, as a punter you have to treat it as A race.
In other words, don't abandon your time honored methods. Take the steps you would if you were doing the form for the Maiden at Doomben tomorrow.
Understanding that many will be taking exotics, we will come up with a top four in order and a top 10 in order to suit your various betting budgets.
But "first-up" we have to execute a culling process.
What horses cannot possibly run in the top four under any circumstances?
With a degree of confidence I scratch out (3) Jackalberry, (5) Winchester, (6) Voila Ici, (9) Sanagas, (18) Niwot, (19) Tac De Bositron, (21) Precedence, (22) Unusual Suspect, (23) Zabeelionaire.
The next section of pruning is a tricky one because while these horses cannot win they could sneak into a place without totally surprising.
So with not as much confidence we leave out (7) Cavalryman, (10) Ethiopia, (13) Glencadam Gold, (20) Lights Of Heaven and (24) Kelinni.
That leaves us the "top ten" to work our betting strategies around.
I'm selecting (17) My Quest For Peace to win the Melbourne Cup with odds of around $21 on offer in some quarters.
A lightly-raced European five-year-old with a healthy strike rate (5/12), he ran an excellent race in the Caulfield Cup, racing on pace, and a hectic on pace at that, left in front too soon and boxed on strongly.
Some will tell you barriers count for little in long distance races. Rubbish. Draw 24 and try and come around the entire field. Good luck.
Yet My Quest For Peace has drawn the rails with Corey Brown up so he should get a comfortable trip on the fence, saving energy to enable him to run the two miles.
Not only am I tipping Luca Cumani to win his first Melbourne Cup but I am boldly predicting him to quinella with it with Mount Athos.
Mount Athos goes in unraced since mid August where he won three in a row impressively.
There is no doubt he has "beaten" the handicapper at 54kg and watching his videos, I'm impressed that he can sustain a long run of speed.
Some will question Ryan Moore having his first ride in Australia. Don't, wherever he goes he fits like a glove.
It would be foolish not to position Dunaden in a top spot and I've got him third.
His deeds are well exposed. The question is not whether he can carry 59kg (up 4.5 on last year's win) but whether he can carry it in comparison to those weighted below him.
I think he faces a huge task but he is world class and will give it a great shot.
The best Aussie hope is my fourth pick Maluckyday who ran second as an immature horse in 2010 behind Americain.
Illness robbed him of a 2011 Cup campaign but he has built strongly in four runs this preparation and there will be no excuse on Tuesday with his favorable draw and Jim Cassidy riding.
So my top four are (17) My Quest For Peace (8) Mount Athos (1) Dunaden (15) Maluckyday.
Now the other six to include as strong place possibilities (in order) are:
(2) Americain, (4) Red Cadeaux, (16) Mourayan (best longshot), (14) Green Moon, (11) Fiorente, (12) Galileo's Choice.
Good punting. Enjoy your Melbourne Cup day and see you at Doomben.
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