THE SEARCH FOR THE WINNER AND THE CUP TRIFECTA

By Graham Potter | Monday, November 5, 2012

The fact that the mix of form in this year’s Melbourne Cup is difficult to line up might be confusing and frustrating to some pundits, but that is not going to stop the nation from partaking in one of its favourite past-times on one of the country’s most famous days. Big money is going to be splurged on the race as punters attempt to select the winner or find the big race trifecta. Like you and the masses, Graham Potter, has an opinion of what the result might be.

A year ago Red Cadeaux and Dunaden fought out the closest finish in Melbourne Cup history with the latter getting the verdict by the proverbial whisker.

Dunaden has quite literally become the heavyweight in the contest, not only because of the 59kg he is now asked to carry (4.5kg up from last year) but because of the punch he carries when plying his trade in Australia.

Last year Dunaden won the Geelong Cup prior to his Melbourne Cup success and he has already added the Caulfield Cup to his record on his return to the country this year to remain unbeaten, and that at the highest level, in Australia.

So, for all intent and purposes then, he is the benchmark against which to evaluate others with lively chances and also those who tease the form-analyst just enough to make them difficult to summarily dismiss. So let’s start the juggling act, taking that list of perceived challengers to our benchmark horse in race-book order.

Americain: Is 1kg better off with Dunaden for a 1.50 length defeat in the Caulfield Cup and a whopping 4.5kg betting off with Dunaden for a 1.50 length defeat in the 2011 Melbourne Cup. A lot has been made of the change of rider and with “Ollie’s Army” behind the horse, who will also attract followers because of his good looks, Americain will either start favourite or close to favourite for the race. Alcopop, who finished second to Dunaden at Caulfield, franked that form by winning McKinnon Stakes on Saturday. Americain will clearly give a big showing on raceday. My gut feel is that there will be little between Americain and Dunaden at the line. While there was possibly more to like about the way Dunaden went about his business at Caulfield and there is plenty to admire about his all-round ability, my call between these two runners, based on the above stats, goes Americain’s way.

Red Cadeaux: Went oh so close last year. He is 2.5kg better off at the weights with Dunaden compared to their historic last clash which, in theory, is a winning turnaround. Weighed against that is the realization that Red Cadeaux is himself 2kg worse off with Americain. This exercise would appear to put Americain in the pound seats, but racing is never that simple. The fact that Red Cadeaux comes into the race so fresh (he has not raced since July 12) would, under normal circumstances, not appear to be the ideal preparation , but when it is a deliberate tactic put in place by a trainer who knows his horse well, it is a strategy that must be respected. There is always a risk in that of course but the stable got the chestnut to within a millimeter of success last time so they do know what they are doing. The weight comparison with Americain is a worry, but you will either be betting on Red Cadeaux’s freshness being about to help turnaround that disadvantage or not. Is he ready to go one better? I think he is … so I will break ranks with the handicap here and place Red Cadeaux above Americain and Dunaden.

Mount Athos: This horse might be new to Australia but his trainer Luca Cumani has long been plotting a path to Melbourne Cup glory and there is no doubt he knows exactly what type of horse is needed to win the big one. The six-year-old has plenty to do here but he is clearly a horse on the up having won three-in-a-row prior to be set for this target. Not quite tried and tested for me yet, but one that should not be allowed to slip under the radar, particularly with a handy galloping weight. Having said that, it would still take a leap of faith to put him above the others listed so far, so I’ll have to rank him below those three runners.

Galileo’s Choice: Comes into the race fresh bidding for a hat-trick. The hurdling results in his form-line might put off some punters, but this is a Dermot Weld runner we are talking about here. Cup victories with Vintage Crop and Media Puzzle confirm that he knows how to travel a horse halfway across the world and send them out in fighting fettle and Galileo’s Choice will be no exception. That preparation and competitive galloping weight will see him go to the start with every chance. He received 5.5kg from Dunaden so I’m going to move him past that one in the ratings.

With that, my ranking order for the top half of the field reads Red Cadeaux, Americain, Galileo’s Choice, Dunaden and Mount Athos. Now to the second half of the field!

Green Moon: Was seemingly on track and warming up nicely for this assignment when he suddenly raced below expectations in the Cox Plate. The question in play is whether that was the one below par run that any horse can put in at any given time, or if it put a real doubt about his immediate progress moving forward. You have to respect the expertise of the stable with regard to their knowledge of Melbourne Cup preparation based on their past success, but I don’t think a form hiccup in the run prior to Cup day is a good sign. It has to leave the punter down on confidence. I therefore acknowledge Green Moon’s right to upset the more fancied runners, but I don’t see him doing so. Hence I leave him at the bottom of the list of those already rated.

Maluckyday: Finished second to Americain in the Cup two years ago. Missed last year’s race due to injury and, in fact, endured an injury enforced layoff for a full twelve months. Has been building momentum since his comeback to some degree, but will need to be really sharp here to get the job done. With the Team Hawkes expertise behind him, that might well be the case but, for me the feeling persists that while he should be running on at the death he might just be short of ammunition required to gun the best of his opposition down at this stage of his interrupted career. It would be one helluva training feat if he does win though and if anyone can carry that through, it is the Team Hawkes camp. I’ll put him above Green Moon, but below the rest of those already rated.

My Quest For Peace: My final choice of those I believe to be in with a claim of winning the race. Trainer Luca Cumani has been at pains to point out that he has two horses in the race and that, in his opinion, there is not much between them. If you like Mount Athos, who is generally the more fancied of the two Cumani runners … take the warning. By including both of the stable runners in this list, I have given Cumani’s judgement the benefit of the doubt. There are far worse strategies to follow than that … but My Quest For Peace does stay at the foot of the ladder of my Melbourne Cup race rankings list.

My predicted race finishing order then is:
Red Cadeaux, Americain, Galileo’s Choice, Dunaden, Mount Athos. Maluckyday, Green Moon and My Quest For Peace.

Having labeled Red Cadeaux as the winner with Americain a close second (for the quinella), I am looking to open up the options a bit in pursuit of claiming the winning trifecta.

My Melbourne Cup trifecta selection for $84.00 (or a percentage thereof to suit your pocket) is:
For first place: Red Cadeaux, Americain, Galileo’s Choice.
For second place: Red Cadeaux, Americain, Galileo’s Choice, Dunaden, Mount Athos.
For third place: Red Cadeaux, Americain, Galileo’s Choice, Dunaden, Mount Athos, Maluckyday, Green Moon, My Quest For Peace and Cavalry Man*.

*Cavalry Man has been thrown in to add value to the possible end dividend. Godolphin have never won the Cup and this is Frankie Dettori’s last ride for them ending an eighteen year association. While I have not listed Cavalry Man as a possible winner, it would be a hugely, emotional story, given the circumstances if Cavalry Man does get up, and we all know how racing has its way of throwing up hugely, emotional stories.

Melbourne Cup prices (at the time of posting)

6.50 Americain
7.00 Mount Athos
7.50 Dunaden
9.00 Red Cadeaux
13.00 Maluckyday
15.00 Galileo’s Choice
17.00 Green Moon, My Quest For Peace, Lights Of Heaven
21.00 Ethiopia, Kelinni
26.00 Mourayan
31.00 Fiorente
41.00 Cavalryman
51.00 and upwards others