FORM FACTOR - DAVID FOWLER SELECTS ...

By David Fowler | Saturday, January 5, 2013

Form expert David Fowler’s puts together the pieces of the puzzle facing punters at Eagle Farm today. These are his views on the eight race card.

Race 1: The tip is DALTON (4) will be hard to beat. Failed on debut but good reports about his Rosehill trial win on December 18. REAL SURREAL (18) is back in distance but hits line well and SHES A DANICA (7) won well at Sunshine Coast and can measure up. Rough chances 1 and 14.

Race 2: Hard to speed map this race but tipping REVITALISE (1) will run well fresh. Potentially best horse in the race. ENCINITAS (3) might get carted across by 7 at start and is most effective this trip. WESTERN SHADOW (2) will be on pace and goes OK fresh. The 5 and 6 are run on horses but not horses of mine.

Race 3: Four genuine winning hopes but like ACCIDENTAL (9) at the odds available. Excellent sectional in Gold Coast win. HODGIE AND MO (1) leads but 59kg at 1200m in the city might be a query. STRADON (3) is above-average but thought he might have done a little better at Doomben and VINTAGE MOSS (6) was gifted the lead in Sunshine Coast win and won't get as good a run today. Rough chances 2 and 4.

Race 4: Little value here and chances are well found. VOLKHERE (7) gets the right run and hardest to beat from late finisher LONGSHOREMAN (4) who is up in weight and MR ORIENT (5) keeps running well while TUNAHOG (6) is an on pacer but a risk at 1400m. Rough chances 1, 10, 11

Race 5: Good depth here but thought there were two primary winning chances. MAGIC IN MOTION (4) will keep going well as the distances get further. Like her over MISHANI STEALTH (2) who is honest, will be well ridden and gets a good run. HOLLYWOOD BOUND (11) and TOP RADA (1) aren't far behind the pair. Rough chances 3, 7 and 13.

Race 6: Why can't BREAK THE ICE (5) go well again and odds available appeal to me. Career best form and goes forward and makes own luck. DANAGAZE (3) ran well last Saturday and did run 2nd Ipswich Cup 2011. CARRY ME BLUEY (1) is the class but can he run the distance? DOLLY DOLLY (6) keeps running well. Rough chances 2,8,9.

Race 7: Open race but leaning towards PURETTAN (6) who should drop into 3rd or 4th trailing a good speed and down 4kg on last week's 4th. GAROZZO (3) leads and is hard to get past while WHAT HAPPENEDHENRY (2) will be on pace and was game last start. PURFECTRESS (8) didn't get a strong mile last start so the 100m less helps. Rough chances 1,5,9.

Race 8: ARCTIC (7) "flew" in recent EF midweek win and this looks very suitable. This is his campaign. NO WIN NO WINE (9) has a great finish and can measure up while LADY AGHULAS (5) is in form and gets a good trip from her favourable alley. PEACE TALKS (4) steps to the mile 3rd-up and is down in class. Rough chances 2 and 11.

BEST BET: Race 8 (7) ARCTIC
BEST EACHWAY: Race 3 (9) ACCIDENTAL
BEST ROUGHIE: Race 5 (7) NEVER DESPAIR

QUADDIE: 2 4 7 11 / 3 5 6 / 1 2 3 5 6 8 9 / 4 5 7 9 Cost $168 (50c unit).

David Fowler