DOOMBEN, MARCH 9 - DAVID FOWLER SELECTS ...

By David Fowler | Saturday, March 9, 2013

HRO's resident form expert David Fowler looks at today's meeting at Doomben

Form assessed for a genuine heavy surface with little chance of an upgrade (showers predicted)

RACE ONE:

GREY COUNTESS (2) was impressive at EF 1000m then went up in weight, wide gate, and up to 1200m but still ran well latest 2nd. Better suited in today's race. Go close. AGITATE (5) is a good looker and was "declared" at Ipswich but I thought a little disappointing. Still, has a rap on him. CRAIGLEA CRUZ (1) leads and suited this trip. Rough chances 3,4,7,9

RACE TWO:

Weak race by Saturday standards. ZEKEZA (7) should be fair odds, likes the wet, Colless rides and races on pace from good gate. SUNSET SHOWDOWN (5) gets gun run here and will be "top three". DR BARNARD (1) goes OK fresh but will be last but expect a good finish. Rough chances 9,12,13

RACE THREE:

Limited chances. HOLD ME TIGHT (5) was well fancied to win first-up at EF a fortnight ago and looked good after having an easy run in front. Progressive type and can win again. VOLKHERE (2) is the obvious danger. Boxseats and proven in slow/heavy. EPIC TERRA (1) is in-form and races on pace. Rough chances nil

RACE FOUR:

Little value. CARMORA (2) is two from two and controls tempo again here so hardest to beat. OFFENSE (7) is a dual heavy track winner who will be competitive here while WHAT A GAL (8) won on heavy at Sunny Coast but beat walkers. Rough chances 4.

RACE FIVE:

Bet up at the short odds ! SECRET GARDEN (4) is the best bet of the day. Above-average mare, going places and most of the opposition aren't. Loves heavy. BREAK THE ICE (3) goes forward and controls tempo but a month between runs? Likes wet. COUNT ENCOSTA (1) has a poor win strike rate but better than most. Rough chances 5 and 7

RACE SIX:

Small field but not easy. SILVER BULLION (7) should go forward in a race with not much tempo, proven in heavy and drops 6kg on latest solid EF 4th. JOINT CHIEFS (5) will run well on latest EF 5th if allowed to drop out and run home. MISS BARWANG (13) has blinkers today and will be on pace. Not out of it. Rough chances 3 4 8

RACE SEVEN:

Hard to go past SHOW AFFECTION (4) on latest booming track and trip win three weeks ago. Up 1.5kg but drawn to race a little closer and this doesn't look much harder than latest assignment. BYMONASHEE (14) was just behind Show Affection and will run well again. MONEYSAVER (6) is down in weight and likes wet. Value chance. Rough chances 2,3,9,12,15

RACE EIGHT:

Strong pace here and watch for the swoopers. DISCREET (2) has been freshened for this and will charge home hard. Handles wet. HEADLESS (8) can be ridden forward or back and be competitive. AUCHENFLOWER (13) zoomed to line EF 1000m 4th last run. Slight query at 1200m. Rough chances 1,6,10,11,14

RACE NINE:

ALCANCIA (18) secures a start now and with a weight drop of 4.5kg, a good gate and a real love for heavy, she looks the hardest to beat. GATINEAU RIVER (15) is in-form, races on pace and likes wet. KISS ME DEADLY (9) goes best on wet and also is handy 2nd-up. Rough chances 1 7 10 12 13

BEST BET: SECRET GARDEN (race 5)

BEST EACHWAY: SILVER BULLION (race 6)

BEST ROUGIE: ZEKEZA (race 2)

QUADDIE: 5 7 13 / 4 6 14 / 2 8 13 / 1 7 9 15 18

David Fowler