FIORENTE TICKS ALL THE BOXES FOR THE CUP

By David Fowler | Monday, November 4, 2013

The "F word" will be getting a good run by yours truly on Melbourne Cup day.

No, I haven't lost my marbles but I do think Fiorente is a good thing to win Australia's best race.

Many were surprised when I made this confident prediction at a Cup function on Sunday. I can't see why.

Too often we get carried away with the Cup hype and ignore the glaringly obvious.

Fiorente presents a bulletproof case to win the Cup and I consider Tattsbet's $8 on offer as excellent value.

Many steer clear of the Cup favourite. You will do so at your peril this year.

We saw how good he was when, as a Cup rookie, he ran second with 53.5kg last year and the effort was excellent at only his eighth start in a race.

His subsequent five runs have been sound, once in the Autumn and four this campaign, which will culminate in tomorrow's race where he will carry only 1.5kg more than last year.

But wait, there's more.

Perfectly positioned in barrier five, he has a Melbourne Cup winning jockey in Damien Oliver who rises to a new level at Carnival time … and he really has a point to prove this year!

It mightn't seem that sexy to be tipping the Cup favourite but see if you can pierce any data that I've presented.

To repeat, the facts are glaringly obvious

While my confidence levels are sky high, I will be having a saver bet on Fawkner at $16.

He is one of six runners Lloyd Williams will present for the race and there is no doubt in my mind he is the pick of them.

His Caulfield Cup win was sound and, like Fiorente, he will enjoy a perfect trip with Nick Hall understanding him well.

Fiorente rated higher because he is virtually proven at 3200m while Fawkner is not.

For trifecta takers, I have included the $10 chance Mount Athos for third.

The spruik is there for him again this year and it has to be conceded he ran out of his skin in last year's Cup when zooming home for fifth off a remarkably slow tempo.

The switch from Ryan Moore to Craig Williams is highly significant but as good as Williams is, he can't change barrier 22 which will see the international giving away a big start again.

My best roughie is Super Cool, quoted at $51. The Australian Cup winner has been largely flying under the radar and Corey Brown will give him every chance to run out the 3200m.

Good luck with your Cup bets tomorrow.

I'll see you at Doomben.

David Fowler