LUCIA VALENTINA TO WIN THE MELBOURNE CUP

By David Fowler | Monday, November 3, 2014

It’s time for the girls to have a go.

Expect Lucia Valentina to win this year’s Melbourne Cup, the first mare to achieve success in the cup since Makybe Diva’s three-peat in the middle of last decade.

My confidence level is high with Lucia Valentina, similar to when we labelled Fiorente in 2013. And that confidence is primarily based on tried and true methods, the most important being to assess the form as if it’s just another race.

Before analysing the race in detail, Lucia Valentina’s barrier two draw shone like a neon light. A perfect starting position to let Kerrin McEvoy come out and have as close or as far back as he likes without rivals decided the issue for him.

A key advantage.

Some are still naïve to suggest barrier positions count for little in the two miler. Think like that at your peril.

Naturally the lead-up to Cup and the associated form occupies the heaviest weighting in anyone’s assessment and how could you not be delighted with her four runs this campaign, particularly the Turnbull win and the Caulfield Cup second.

And in those performances lies the real key to Cup success. Her ability to sprint well, reeling off impressive sectionals each time.

With a trouble-free run and allowed to relax, when McEvoy hits the go button she will dash past a lot of grinding stayers and those who have simply run out of puff.

At $7 fixed, she is an excellent gamble.

If I am confident about a Lucia Valentina victory, I must have a healthy respect for the Caulfield Cup winner Admire Rakti … and I do.

I’d nearly concede he beat Lucia Valentina on her merits and there is now only minor weight difference between the pair for the Cup.

This pair were dominant in the Caulfield Cup and really weren’t entitled to be considering the lack of early and midrace pace and the fact they chartered wide trips for most of the way.

The German visitor Protectionist is my third selection.

He is only lightly-raced and his run-on in the Herbert Power was pleasing.

It’s worth remembering that race was run nearly six seconds faster than the Caulfield Cup, allowing for the fact they were run on different days.
Roughies rarely feature these days with the internationalisation of the race but I’ll be having a small saver on Araldo at $26 fixed.

His closing sectionals in the Caulfield Cup fifth were excellent and he won at 2800m as a younger horse in Germany.

Signoff is the spruik horse after his Lexus win but I think the hasty shaving of the odds was an over-reaction.

He couldn’t have wished for a better trip in that race and is yet to compete in the top tier, holding his own in the B grade nevertheless.

BEST BET: LUCIA VALENTINA

BEST EACHWAY: PROTECTIONIST

BEST ROUGHIE: ARALDO

FIRST 4: 1, 5, 22 / 1, 3, 5, 22, 24 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 11, 21, 22, 24 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 11, 21, 22, 24.

David Fowler