MY CALL - ANOTHER WALK IN THE PARK FOR LUMOSTY. NOW SHE JUST NEEDS TO GET A START IN THE BIG ONE
By David Fowler | Tuesday, May 26, 2015
David Fowler is the principal thoroughbred caller for Radio TAB. David, who is a keen form student and punter, has enjoyed a lifetime involvement in the racing media. His personal blog, ‘My Call’, appears exclusively on HRO.
We've got the odds and now we need the start.
Lumosty has polevaulted in betting markets from $13 to $5.5 for the Stradbroke but I was hoping for a bigger leap in order of entry, landing 31st when weights were released yesterday.
While I understand there will be some fall by the wayside I wasn't brave enough to start ruling in or ruling out. It's going to be tight.
I have little doubt Lumosty will win the Stradbroke and it would be a crying shame if she missed out because of some out of form sprinters securing a start.
It was another breeze in the park for Lumosty up the straight at Flemington on Saturday, comfortably disposing of tough-as-teak Victorian winter sprinters.
For Queenslanders who mightn't track interstate form, the equivalent opposition would be the likes of Excellantes and Cape Kidnappers.
When I watch Lumosty, I think of Never Undercharge who arrived as a three-year-old and bashed them up in the 1993 Stradbroke.
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Now to "spruik" horse Najoom.
Such was the review of her winning performance in the Fred Best Classic she was promoted to Stradbroke favouritism at $5.50 on Ubet.
Justified? To a degree.
But I'm not getting carried away for one significant reason. While she sat three wide, it must be pointed out they "walked" through the first part of the race before making it a sprint home.
The 750m section was timed at 45 seconds, which is the pace they normally generate in a midweek maiden at Doomben.
So we now have a fascinating scenario where the top pair in Stradbroke betting aren't actually in the line-up.
Nevertheless, comparing Lumosty and Najoom on their weekend performances, I'm happy to have a ticket with Lumosty's name on it.
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I was a trifle disappointed with Sadler's Lake in the Grand Prix.
A face value analysis might conclude he worked hard early and then was given no peace from the half mile but the sectional times don't tell us that.
He ran his first 1420m in 1:29.59 while Roses victor Bohemian Lily carved out the same distance almost a second faster in 1:28.76.
Sadler's Lake missed a place while Bohemian Lily roared away for an easy win.
I'll be a little forgiving but my Derby confidence has sapped.
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Bohemian Lily's dominant performance now sets the stage for an epic battle with Winx in this week’s Oaks.
Ballet Suite and Sebrina are genuine market players as well.
And the J.J. Atkins is still a conundrum for me.
Every juvenile event I see fails to impress me with a view to the Group One.
Time is running out.
HRO Comment:
This is what David Fowler wrote in last week's blog:
'I’m going to take the $13 today about Lumosty to win the Stradbroke. The market at the top end is very precarious and I’m looking for one to come out of left field to turn the betting on its head.
This filly has a wicked turn of speed which she displayed in a quick up the straight win at Flemington last Saturday week. She runs in the Straight Six this week and a winning performance will certainly see the $13 shaved. And if she doesn’t win, she probably can’t win the Straddie. I reckon it’s a good gamble.
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