WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, OCTOBER 8
By Darren Winningham | Friday, October 7, 2016
Well what can I say … I tipped a few winners last week – Jim Byrne winning the jockey’s challenge at $4.40. Not a bad weekend in Brisbane.
I did make one statement that I have come to regret. I did discuss the chances of the Gordon Yorke trained Marscay Force and how he should win the race he was entered to which the wise Mr Yorke said, “I like Jopa the top weight here – I think he is the hardest to beat!” To which I responded, mate are you serious “If that horse wins I will walk from here to your stables at Coffs Harbour ... nude!” History shows that Jopa saluted with Bridget Grylls on board at around $25 and I commenced the walk of shame … ‘shame, shame, shame.’ I made it to the border of NSW before their police services stopped me and said that I could not continue as I required a pilot vehicle to escort me from that point forward ... “Caution Wide Load Following”. So I turned around and headed home!
This week we are back at Doomben and the rail is out 3metres the entire course and we should be running on a good surface with a warm day forecast.
NB *As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
Race 1
Another open two year old race to start the program this week. There is not much form around this race but I am going to tip the horse that is race fit and won the first two year old race of the season at Toowoomba Pure Luck (1) who is trained by Ben Currie. He beat Real Princess who came out last weekend and won impressively. Of the unraced bunch I like the Rob Heathcote trained Pinch Passion (7) who has Jimmy Byrne riding. Of the rest She’s Our Star (12) and Misprint (6) look like they may fill the placings.
Selections: 1-7-6-12.
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Race 2
Deconstructed (2) has been knocking on the door but just seems to be racing without luck – this week he has another jockey change with Damian Browne taking the ride. He has a good record on the horse with three wins and a placing from seven rides on him – maybe there will be some improvement this week. Legendary Luke (7) has never won over 1600m but his last couple of runs suggest that he is looking for the extra distance. He really did struggle last start on the Eagle Farm track – maybe back to Doomben this week he may find the going a little better. Brazen Moss (1) started favourite last start and just had no luck – he does prefer the Doomben track and is sure to be in the finish despite the large weight.
Selections: 2-7-1-4.
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Race 3
Bithard (3) was a massive run behind Nicconi Leggera (1) last start – I think he can turn the tables this week in a hotly contested race. Manias (4) ran in the same race and performed well and I think will appreciate getting back onto the Doomben track where the gelding won his maiden over 1050m – with the natural improvement in the horse he won’t be far behind. Double Superlative (7) was first up in the same race and performed well. I think the form out of that race at Eagle Farm on 24 September will hold up here this week.
Selections: 3-1-4-7.
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Race 4
Bound for Love (9) has been in career best form and is looking for a hat trick of wins this week for the lethal Toby Edmonds/Jeff Lloyd team. The Sydney visitor Testashadow (1) has been sent north to look for some firmer ground and should get that this weekend – his form is impressive and should test the favourite . I like these two as my best quinella of the day. I think the two Heathcote trained horses, Sea Red (7) and Kaiser Franz (8) should round out the placings.
Selections: 9-1-7-8.
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Race 5
Hanwritten (10) won well last start at Randwick in a restricted race. He is back to Brisbane this week and drops in weight here. He has been well backed as well and will be hard to beat here. Abracadash (9) has had a freshen up since running an honest race behind Hidden Pearl last start – prior to that the mare had put three wins together. I think she could run well here and at the nice odd of $16 could be a great one to put in your quadrellas.
Alpen Rose (6) ran well last start being beaten by her stable mate Privlaka at Eagle Farm. She gets in well with the claim for Bridget Grylls who is riding in great form of late. The runner I have a watch on is the Tony Gollan trained Sheiswhatsheis (8) who is first up here and normally races well fresh and looks well placed in this race.
Selections: 10-9-6-8.
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Race 6
Well you could not have missed the impressive performance of Bidii Babe (10) the other week and the great back story of Rob Heathcote putting Larry Cassidy back on his horses and the first one he rides he salutes with a winner. I think in the coming weeks the form out of that race will hold up as there were some nice types that were unlucky with bad barrier draws and just had no luck in the running. That being said Comic Story (11) finished second to Bidii Babe just being run down in the final shadows of the post – this week from barrier one the gelding should lead and with senior rider Jimmy Orman on board he should be well rated in front. On that note it should be noted that Orman elected to come out of his apprenticeship early. That move was granted by Queensland Racing and is now riding as a senior rider
Magic Love (15) is lightly raced and has a massive 5 kilogram weight drop from her last start – she may be the one to fill the placings and the First 4 bets. Stella Ombra (9) was tardily away at his recent start at Eagle Farm – all things being equal I think he should have won the race – now third up from a spell this weekend he looks the toughest chance for the favourite to beat.
Selections: 10-9-11-15 rough chance 4.
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Race 7
I am at a loss for this race – I went looking for something to beat the favourite Denoninator (4) who has been in career best form and is looking for a hat trick of wins this weekend. I just thought coming back in distance may be a disadvantage to the six year old gelding this week. Then I struggled with the rest of them. I have gone for some value here with the Toby Edmonds trained Raffinato (14) with Luke Tarrant taking the ride – I think that the mare will like getting back to the Doomben track where she has performed well and will be given a nice run by Tarrant.
The danger is clearly her stable mate La Spiaggia (9) who two starts ago was impressive over the 2000metres here at Doomben ... winning that race. The other one I like is the last start winner Last Sight (13), drawn well here and Skye Bogenhuber comes to town to take the ride on the six year old gelding. I know that the selections are all a fair price but I think that this race may throw up a massive upset.
Selections: 14-9-13-4 rough chances 10 and 15.
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Race 8
Like who could have missed the run of Mr Wind (14) last start? Missed the start – could not get a clear run at them in the straight …. such an unlucky story! This week he has drawn barrier 15 and Jeff Lloyd will have to be at his best to get the stallion home. He has a gear change as well with the tongue tie coming off and a tongue control bit being applied this week. Zou Der Zee (15) is a nice price here and is well drawn and should race handy. I did see this horse race over the Grafton Carnival. It raced well and then came back to Doomben and won well. It is owned by popular Brisbane bookmaker Con Searle and I am sure that he will have his staff scurrying around taking whatever price he can get in the ring. Con had a winner on Monday at the Eagle Farm meeting with Zouzoukakia can his winning luck continue on the weekend?
Desert Man (12) has drawn wide here in barrier 19 so I am not sure whether it will be scratched or get the run – but on his form from 2015 he could be right in this. Other chances are the Helen Page trained Powerful Saga (9) and the Desleigh Forster trained Khaleeq (7) both who have been racing in solid form of late. Some other chances are Dram of Red (3) who ran well in some superior company last preparation and the last start winner Nilette (10) trained by Rob Heathcote. This is a race of many chances. May have to take the field in your Quaddies this week!
Selections: 14-10-15-9 rough chances 3, 7 and 12.
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Race 9
Well the get out stakes this week looks like an easy victory to Monsieur Gustave (9) ... or is it? The Darryl Hansen gelding has been working through the grades impressively and this will be no walk in the park in this Class 6 race. I think Pepperano (16) gets in well here after a great win last weekend over the course and distance. She does go up in class but down in weight – could be the one to knock over the favourite.
Then you have Privlaka (10) who was super impressive first up from a spell and have raced well in this grade previously. He has drawn well here and despite a poor second up record I think Jim Byrne will be timing his run late to attack the two runners I have mentioned above. Magic I Am (14) again has the Toby Edmonds polish and his record in town with his runners in the new 2016/17 season is amazing with most of his horses winning or being placed at a rate of of around 70%. An amazing effort from the man with the cap and the beaming smile!
Selections: 9-16-10-14
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Early Quaddie (Races 2 to 5 NSW TAB only) 2,7 / 1,3 / 1,9 / 9,10 - cost is $16 for $1
Quadrella (races 6 to 9) 9,10,11,15 / 4,9,13,14 / 9,10,14,15 / 9,10,14,16 - cost is $256 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 6 to 9) 9,10 / 9,14 / 10,14 / 9,10,16 - cost is $24 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9) 9,10 / 14 / 14 / 9,10,16 - cost is $6 to $1
Jockey Challenge
This week it looks like a solid win to Jeff Lloyd – looks to have a nice book or rides – the domination should continue!
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