WINNO'S CAULFIELD CASH: OCTOBER 15
By Darren Winningham | Friday, October 14, 2016
Well, how good was last weekend.
Winx dominated!
Just quietly I had a good day with most of my selections winning or finishing in the top three.
This weekend there is a ten race program featuring the time honoured Caulfield Cup. So what horse, jockey and trainer will set their name in the history books in 2016?
The rail is out the entire course 6m – which is disappointing for Cup day and the track will be rated Good.
NB *As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
Race 1
Sylpheed (5) was impressive first up at Caulfield – trained by Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott the team have retained Damien Oliver for the ride again this week. The dangers are Skylight Glow (3) coming off a good Sydney run and who has the gear change of removing the blinkers this week. Another Bullseye (6) was a great run in the Edward Manifold two weeks ago – box these three in a trifecta and get off to a great Caulfield Cup Day.
Selections: 5-6-3-11.
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Race 2
The two favourites here are Morton’s Fork (4) and Acatour (7) both from Sydney stables. I am going to tip Inside Agent (3), a lightly raced colt that won last start at Flemington over the 1400m. On that occasion it was well supported and it looked like it had plenty of improvement in it. At $10 presently I think it represents amazing value. The other roughie I like is the other Godolphin runner Peacock (9), again around $16, who put in a solid performance last start behind Inside Agent. I think it will benefit from that run and has the inform Dwayne Dunn aboard.
Selections: 3-9-4-7 rough chance 11
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Race 3
Super Cash (7) looked great winning last start first up at Caulfield – I hope she can go on with it this week and string two wins together over the course and distance. Vezalay (6) won this race last year and with a great winning record at Caulfield and, drawn nicely, may be able to go back to back winning this race for consecutive years.
Flippant (4) has an amazing first up record with three wins from six starts. It has had plenty of work for this first up assignment but being trained by Peter and Paul Snowden should be kept safe. Miss Promiscuity (1) is the class runner of the field and if any of these do not fire – watch out for her at a massive price!
Selections: 7-6-4-1
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Race 4
A tough race here with most of these fillies running over the 2000m for the first time. Sebring Dream (2) came from well back last week and looks as if the longer distance will suit this week. I am wondering if the James Cummings trained Savvan (4) takes the lead here and, with the rail out so far, kicks hard in the straight that nothing might be able to run it down – the decisions of punting! Craig Williams has the ride and does ride Caulfield extremely well – it could mean a race to race double for the jockey! Eleonora (5) just had no luck last start at Flemington. You could be well advised to overlook that run.
Selections: 2-4-5-1
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Race 5
I am staying with Seaburge (1) here. Sprinted well last week at the end of 1600m and I think the 2000m will suit. Wine Bush (4) is a Waller trained horse that seemed to surprise the stable last start with a win at Flemington at the odds of $19. The way it won it looked like there was plenty of improvement still left in the colt.
Throssell (3) performed terribly last start I think we can overlook that run when it was sent out as favourite and just didn’t fire. Rocketeer (5) rounds out my selections – was steaming home behind Wine Bush (4) last start and with a better draw this week it should be thereabouts in the finish. One I do like at odds as a roughie is Waterloo Sunset (14) who last start was drawn wide, had no luck and I think could be some great value at around $20 for your exotics and multiples.
Selections: 1-4-5-3 rough chance 14
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Race 6 – Coongy Cup
This time last week we were watching Winx destroy the field – this week I don’t think we will be seeing a horse of that calibre here! I think the two Sydney horses have the race between them here – take your pick! It’s Somewhat (1) or Vanbrugh (4) look well placed and should fight out the race. Tom Melbourne (6) will probably enjoy getting back to the big open Caulfield track after failing last start on the Moonee Valley circuit. In line with recent weeks I think Maurus (3) who raced consistently over the Brisbane Winter Carnival may improve this weekend and find a place here.
Selections: 1-4-6-3
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Race 7 – Schweppes Tristarc Stakes
Tycoon Tara (2) looked good winning in Sydney last start leading all the way and then kicking away in the final 100 metres to post an impressive win. First Seal (1) seems to always put in a better performance second up and her record does suggest that with three starts for one win and two seconds. French Emotion (4) won well at Flemington last start.
The interesting runner from my point of view is Denmagic (10). I just think he is ready to show something here. He has a few things against him being first run at Caulfield – this can bring some Sydney trained horses unstuck – but I think he is getting back to a suitable distance and may be the one to be flying out wide late if there is some genuine pace in the race.
Selections: 2-1-4-10
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Race 8 – 2016 BMW Caulfield Cup
It is always hard to line up the overseas horses with the Australian horses. Some travel and settle in well – some don’t. I think I may resort to form I know here. But that may go against all my previous tipping strategies in the Cup where I normally tip horses in this race that have won at the track. So taking all that into consideration the only two that fit that criteria are the Ciaron Maher trained Jameka (11) and Set Square (13).
Then looking at the Metropolitan form, which has been a good reference point for this race is recent years, the two runners that appeal are the winner of the race. Sir John Hawkwood (8) and Sacred Master (15) who ran a slashing fourth.
Brisbane Winter Carnival form – Real Love (12) appeals and I think the large weight in the Brisbane Cup stopped the mare from winning that race – she is back to handicap conditions here and gets in well at the weights.
Then you have the overseas invaders! Working from the top there is Exospheric (3), Scottish (4) and Articus (9). So I think I have it down to eight now. What to select in the race??
I am taking the Metropolitan form and putting it on top as the yardstick this year. That means Tommy Berry and Blake Spriggs could be in line to win their first ever Caulfield Cup – since they are both great jockeys in their own right can I be so bold as to say it will be a dead heat! I bet Tommy has been wasting all week to ride at 51.5kilograms.
I am suggesting that you take a gamble and box my first five in a trifecta and first four and see what happens.
Selections 15-8-11-12-13 rough chances 3, 4, and 9
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Race 9 – Caulfield Sprint
Wild Rain (4) is the one to beat here – just get on! They can back Hellbent (5) all they like. They will get burnt!
The Sydney trained Our Boy Malachi (2) was an amazing run first up at Randwick, he looked beaten five times in the straight but in true tradition showed that characteristic fight and still stuck on for second just behind the much improved and dynamic Takedown. I have put Lankan Rupee (1) in for fourth but he may just destroy this field if he comes back at his best!
Selections 4-5-2-1
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Race 10
I am going wide here. I have a healthy respect for the two favourites – Takedown (4) and Voodoo Lad (12), however, I just think that Durendal (9) third up from a spell and back at Caulfield could bring these two unstuck. The $16 on offer at the moment I think is a good price for a horse that has won at the track and distance and will race handy on the speed.
I think that there will be some serious speed in the race and the gelding will just sit behind them until jockey Damian Lane gets him to kick and runs past them all in the final 100m of the race. That being said the horse sure to be flashing late and making a race of it is the Queensland, Robert Heathcote trained Hopfgarten (11) – it would be wise not to leave this out of your Quaddie and exotic bets. A wide opened race to finish off the 2016 Caulfield Cup day!
Selections 9-12-4-11 rough chance 8
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Early Quaddie (races 3 to 6 NSW) 4,6,7 / 2,4,5 / 1,4,5,14 / 1,4,6 - cost $108 for $1
Quaddie (races 7 to 10) 1,2,4,10 / 8,11,12,15 / 2,4,5 / 4,9,11,12 - cost $192 for $1
Value Quaddie (races 7 to 10) 1,2 / 8,11,15 / 4,5 / 9,11,12 - cost $36 for $1
Mad Quaddie (races 7 to 10) 2,10 / 8,15 / 4,5 / 9,11 - cost $16 for $1
Treble (races 8 to 10) 8,11,12,15 / 2,4,5 / 4,9,11,12 - cost $48 for $1
Jockeys Challenge
Looks like a tough day despite ten races – I think at this early stage prior to scratchings that Craig Williams and Hugh Bowman have the best chances of winning this weekend.
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