MY CALL: OCEANOGRAPHER TO WIN THIS YEAR'S CUP

By David Fowler | Monday, October 31, 2016

David Fowler is the principal thoroughbred caller for Radio TAB. David, who is a keen form student and punter, has enjoyed a lifetime involvement in the racing media. His personal blog, ‘My Call’, appears exclusively on HRO.

Seeing is believing.

And my Melbourne Cup first four has been presented clearly to me over the past fortnight.

First and foremost, I embark on a process of elimination, maintaining consistent rules year in and year out.

I don't entertain internationals who are totally new here. Out goes Curren Mirotic, Wicklow Brave ( little nervous there), Heartbreak City, Beautiful Romance and Secret Number.

Next bracket to be binned are horses, in my assessment, that are not racing well enough to achieve a top five result.

This is the group that can potentially be the most dangerous because unlike the first lot, the judgement is subjective.

Nevertheless, goodbye to Who Shot The Barman, Almoonqith, Gallante, Sir John Hawkwood, Excess Knowledge, Assign, Pentathlon and Rose Of Virginia.

We are one left with 11 possibilities.

The next group ranked are strong place chances to be included in all forms of multiples.

There are seven of them including Big Orange, Our Ivanhoe, Bondi Beach, Hartnell, Grand Marshall, Almandin and Quewy.

Hartnell deserves some discussion at this point as I was considering him a rival to Winx in the Cox Plate yet now can only find a second tier spot for him.

Not diminishing Winx's champion status, I felt Hartnell should have done better than the eight length defeat recorded.

And I have a serious doubt about his ability to run a strong 3200m with last year's Melbourne and Sydney Cup performances lending weight to that theory.

I have selected Oceanographer to win this year's Cup and have priced it at $4.

An impressive Geelong Cup run then a brilliant winning performance in the Lexus on Saturday suggests he will run home powerfully with his light weight.

The Lexus winners in recent times have played a strong hand in the two miler three days later.

I think Exospheric is the hardest to beat. I have it at $6 so he offers fantastic value.

A former International, his Caulfield Cup third was excellent and D. Oliver riding is such a boost in Melbourne's big races.

The Freeman factor counts for plenty as well.

It would be foolhardy to leave Jameka (priced at $5) out of any Cup discussions on winning chances.

The emphatic Caulfield Cup win is a bulletproof form reference and the good barrier ensures she enjoys the run of the race.

The unknown of running two miles with 54.5kg however is cause for some reservation.

Quewy (assessed at $11), a roll forward horse with a light weight, is my fourth pick after he impressed in going wire to wire in the Geelong Cup.

My Melbourne Cup numbers are 20, 5, 12 and 23.

Present prices allow you to back all four and make various profits.

Good luck in the big one.

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