WINNO'S MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW: ALL SYSTEMS GO FOR ANOTHER GREAT MELBOURNE CUP SHOOTOUT
Monday, October 31, 2016
Melbourne Cup 2016 ... there is certainly some hype and talk around. They are expecting over 100,000 people at the Flemington track to see the running of the Cup this year – sadly I will be at work.
No matter who you talk to everyone has an opinion on the race! So do not let me talk you out of your “selected horse”. Some people pick on names – some on colours and some just on lucky numbers.
I think in the years I have been punting the best yarn I can share with you is in 2008 when my neighbour knocked on my door after the race .. I was sick on that day!
Her husband is a mad punter and was down at the Bowls Club having a few sherbets and forgot to ask what she wanted to back in the Cup. So she went to the local Banyo TAB and backed four horses like she does every year!
So how does she pick them you ask? She picks them on birthday numbers of herself, her hubby and the two daughters! You got it they all came in number 8 – Viewed won for the great Bart Cummings at around $41 – Bauer (11) ran second at $21 and C’est La Guerre (5) at $21 ran third.
So here I am at the door depressed as I never backed a place getter ploughing through her TAB tickets. All of the mentioned horses she has had $10 each way.
Then I find another ticket Master O’Reilly (6) with $10 each way on it as well. I handed her back that ticket and said that was no good but these ones here have probably won you around $1000.
She was very happy and then said – well what about these ones? The man at the TAB talked me into having a Trifecta – boxed trifecta – the ticket had boxed 5,6,8.11 – for $24.
I said well this just won you the trifecta ... I cannot remember how much it paid but it was a motza. Then she showed me a quinella ticket with the same numbers on it for $6 – again a winner! She scrounges through her bag and said “I suppose this one is no good” – I take a look at it and sure enough it is a First 4 with the numbers 5,6.8,11 for $12.
I said hold on let me check the result for you. We go inside and to my amazement she has jagged the first 4 for 50%.
I great day on the punt ... I think she collected around $130,000 from memory.
I have never seen the husband leave the local and come home before 6.00pm on any night, but he was soon home at the front door looking to share the spoils ... as you would ... after I called him and told him what had just happened.
Melbourne Cup 2016
I have had a look at them and have got it down to nine chances for me. That is as long as the track does not get into the heavy range or is badly affected by rain.
So here goes in race book order.
Big Orange (1) winner of the Goodwood Cup and a gallant second in the Dubai Gold Cup earlier this year – looks well weighted and has drawn well here.
Exospheric (5) with Damien Oliver on it ran a nice race in the Caulfield Cup and will probably enjoy the longer distance – in saying that he has never won past 2414.
Then you have the 2016 favourite Hartnell (6) trained by John O’Shea and to be ridden by James McDonald. He is been very consistent this preparation and has been racing in great form ... I just look at the record books and not too many favourites win the Cup.
Then you have the Caulfield Cup favourite and winner – Jameka (12) trained by Ciaron Maher. She was impressive in the Caulfield Cup destroying that field – people are saying that she is not bred to get the distance – well we will see Tuesday.
I have found the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott trained Excess Knowledge (15). This time last year he was in great form – ran in the Melbourne Cup and was defeated by only 3.2 lengths. Well sure he is one year older – and maybe not in the solid form as he was last year but his last two runs suggests that Gai has him ready to peak on Cup day – watch out for this one!
Almandin (17) trained by Robert Hickmott, owned by Lloyd Williams and to be ridden by Kerrin McEvoy. What a team! The gelding is looking for a hat trick of wins. The Williams team always maps out these preparations twelve months in advance – with any luck in running I think this one will be in the finish for sure.
Then we get onto Oceanographer (20) who won the Lexus in an extraordinary way on Saturday – has copped a 1 kilogram penalty for the win as well. He came from first to last with such a wonderfully timed run and I just hope he didn’t peak on Saturday. I think this is the one that can win this year’s Cup with a clear run and a barnstorming finish – I am backing him. Good luck Chad Schofield!
Then there are two of the many Godolphin runners in the 2016 Cup – Secret Number (21) and Qewy (23). I have not seen much written about Secret Number but I really do like this one as a rough chance. Qewy (23) was rated in front well last start by Kerrin McEvoy leading all the way in the Geelong Cup. Craig Williams takes the ride in the Cup and I assume will take up the running from barrier 15 with no weight on his back here and may be hard to run down.
There looks like some genuine speed in the Cup this year and I hope everyone gets a good run.
In summary for a good to dead track: 20-1-15-17-21-23
On a wet or heavy track: 4-10-6-23-21
Good luck and good punting!
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