FROM THE SHERIFF'S DESK: THE GREATNESS OF SPORT, INCLUDING RACING, IS ITS WONDERFUL UNPREDICTABILITY

By John Schreck | Wednesday, November 9, 2016

John Schreck, a former Chief Steward in both Sydney and Hong Kong, has seen both the colourful and the dark sides of racing. His wealth of experience and his deep knowledge of racing matters across the board is unquestioned and the reputation he built as a racing ‘lawman’ remains firmly entrenched in racing’s history. Shreck’s personal blog, ‘From the Sheriff’s Desk', appears exclusively on HRO.

I have touched on the subject of predictability versus unpredictability before ... and how great a fan I am of unpredictability ... but I feel that argument is well worth revisiting again here.

Let’s have a look at a few things that have happened in recent times.

At the start of the last English Premier League season Leicester City, who won the league title, kicked off that campaign at odds of 5000-1.The Western Bulldogs won the AFL flag from outside the top floor. No-one said it could be done. The Cronulla Sharks have had better teams in the past yet only this year were they able to win the Premiership for the first time.

The Chicago Cubs have been trying to win the World Series for one-hundred-and-eight years and they have done it this year. Lasqueti Spirit, last week’s Victoria Oaks winner, was 130-1 and the manner in which it won the race was entirely unpredictable.

And on it goes! At the end of the first day of the recent cricket test all of the experts were talking about the lead Australia was going to have over South Africa at the end of the first innings. All of a sudden they are two in front and lose the test ... and, of course, there was Ireland beating the All Blacks the other night for the first time in eighty years.

What I’m trying to say is that the greatness of sport, including racing, is its wonderful, wonderful unpredictability.

Many people’s current hopes and dreams, which some will go on to achieve, would not exist if outcomes like those mentioned above did not occur.

Yet some people in racing are of the misguided view that destroying initiative and creating predictability is something that needs to be strived for because somehow that creates integrity.

That is a philosophy that I don’t adhere to at all.

Without its unpredictability racing would be dead!

So, instead of being condemned, as it often is in racing but not in other sports, the unpredictability of racing should be applauded because it provides the essential part which makes the sport great.

Unpredictability raises the interest level. It elevates the excitement and provides great theatre.

I feel very strongly about this and, in my view, those who don’t embrace and celebrate racing’s unpredictabilty don’t understand the true nature of the game and are the poorer for it!

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There is always some sort of backlash when race programmers announce proposed changes to feature races during carnival time.

The latest race to experience this sort of turbulence is the Doomben 10 000 with Racing Queensland putting forward a proposal to move the race from Doomben to Eagle Farm next year.

I tend to adopt a very simple and practical approach to these matters.

I absolutely believe that people should welcome changes if they are for the right reasons and not just reject them out of hand without proper consideration, which is often the first, knee-jerk reaction to such a proposal.

There is an old saying, ‘things get better with change, not with chance.’

Things can’t stay the same forever. If that were the case we’d still be riding around in Model T Fords.

There has to be change ... there just has to be from time to time ... and, of course, it is difficult for some people in racing to accept that because racing over the years has been ultra conservative and one of the problems with the sport has been its reluctance to change.

All change doesn’t necessarily work. If the Doomben 10 000 is moved to Eagle Farm and it doesn’t work out it’s not the end of the world. A mistake can be acknowledged and things could be changed again.

If a better revenue raising opportunity is thought to be on offer at Eagle Farm it should be considered, as should the question of what alternative is there to improve the financial bottom line if this particular proposed change is not effected.

I would get draw stakeholder’s attention back to that quote, ‘things get better with change, not with chance.’

I’m not saying the Doomben 10 000 must go to Eagle Farm.

I am saying that stakeholders should understand that, if Racing Queensland is looking to gain the financial improvement that it so desperately needs, entrenching the current status quo and doing nothing is simply not an option.