WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, DECEMBER 17

By Darren Winningham | Thursday, December 15, 2016

The Saturday preview

This week we are back at Doomben with the rail true and forecast “Good” track and a fine day – perfect racing conditions and we should see every runner get every opportunity this week. I am feeling a little confident!

Well the week has past – time to bath in some NSW glory thanks to Michael Rodd and Tim Clark who dominated the Eagle Farm meeting last week and have landed NSW in front in the UBET State of Origin Jockey Series for now!

What a masterful display of riding over the Friday and Saturday in Brisbane with Michael Rodd riding four winners on Friday and then backing up Saturday and winning two races at Eagle Farm.

Sunday saw the running of the Hong Kong International meeting. It seemed that the rail was off and this did hinder some of the horses. But nevertheless it was a magical spectacle of racing. The highlight of the day had to be the freak Japanese stallion Maurice, who destroyed the field in the HK$25 million Longines Hong Kong Cup. Another highlight for me was the return to winning form of Aerovelocity in the Hong Kong Sprint – a masterful training effort to get the eight year old gelding to peak on the day – a wonderful ride by regular rider Zac Purton – and the rest is history!

Then came the 2016 QLD Derby winner Eagle Way – now trained in Hong Kong by John Moore – he was dominant in his exciting win in the last race – perfectly ridden and rated by Hugh Bowman – be sure to follow this one in coming weeks in Hong Kong.

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.

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Race 1

Another open two year old race to start the program this week – not again! I really don’t know what to tip here in the Phelan Ready Stakes! Most of these colts and geldings are getting ready for the Magic Millions in a couple of weeks’ time – I am hoping we see a special performance this week from one of them.

Ours to Keep (4) from the Munce yards I think is the pick of them here. A good run first up and drawn handy there is a lot to like. The Matthew Dunn trained pair of Arrestar (3) and Saxton Rock (5) are genuine challengers. I see that Adam Hyeronimus is in town and has taken the ride on Arrestar – he is a very talented jockey so if you like this colt there is nothing to fear with his engagement.

The interesting runner is the Tony McEvoy trained Despatch (1) who won the Ballarat clockwise MM race a month ago. The stable do have a high opinion of this colt and Luke Currie makes the trek north to partner him in his preparation for the Magic Millions on the Gold Coast on 14 January. I have no mail on the unraced runners – be sure to watch any market moves for them!

Selections: 4-1-3-5

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Race 2

Well we have the 2016 Calaway Gal Stakes for two year olds as our second race. The Dynamic Syndications filly – We Have Lift Off (12) trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott makes her first race appearance here. A recent barrier trial win at Rosehill suggest that she is forward enough here to challenge the local horses. An interesting riding engagement of Jim Byrne has me wondering how good this filly really is? Gai can get one ready for the Magic Millions and this could be her leading chance for 2016 – be warned do not let her get under your guard!

Champ Elect (3) again from the Chris Munce yards was sent out last start a heavily backed favourite and got home in an absolute thriller – winning by a nose in the end. Again this week she will be sent out as favourite. She had a checked run last start so the run was full of merit. I am going to tip the Liam Birchley trained Real Princess (2) – I really think that she has the form to go on with it here at some nice odd of around $7.50 presently. She was desperately unlucky in the opening two year old race of the season at Toowoomba and then came out and won next start at Doomben in good fashion – she is the one to beat here in my book!

The John Zielke trained Make My Own Luck (8) won her only start at Toowoomba – in early markets she has been smashed from $17 to $9.50. Someone must like her.

Selections: 2-12-3-4 rough chance 8

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Race 3

Winning Rupert (1) wins - the end! People who keep tipping against him will continue to lose money - simple! Rare Occurrence (11) ran a nice race last week – with Ryan Wiggins back on board here let’s see if he can test the short priced $1.15 favourite. Gold Denari (8) is up from South Australia and trained by Lloyd Kennewell – she could fill a place.

Selections: 1-11-8-7

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Race 4

An open race here – anything could get the chocolates. Double Superlative (13) from the Kelly Schweida stable has been in consistent form – the gelding has drawn barrier 13 and that may pose a risk to his winning chances. Say You Love Me (7) has Matthew McGuren on board here. He has had three rides for three wins on the mare – maybe with the change of jockey there may be a change of fortune.

Deitch (2) gets in well here and with the claim for in-form apprentice Tiffani Brooker may prove hard to beat. The lightly raced Steve O’Dea trained gelding Doubt Defying really did nothing first up behind Winning Rupert last start – look for an improved performance this week.

Selections: 13-7-2-14 rough chance 3

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Race 5

This is the opening leg of the quaddie – a wide open race with many chances. I am going to go for one at some odds here – Top Tone (9). I know the gelding is up in grade here and people will be scratching their heads, but I think he is racing in career best form and I really think the drop in the weight and the nice barrier draw he is a nice gamble each way at around $16. The Waterhouse/Bott trained Sweet Redemption (2) comes off a solid win at Rosehill last start and will take up a forward position in the running here.

The Desleigh Forster trained Cylinder Beach (3) was absolutely outstanding winning first up at Eagle Farm – the four year old gelding has a tremendous record here at Doomben and with any luck in the running and with the speed on he will be flying home at the end. The other one that will like the speed on and will be sure to be flashing late is the Brian Smith trained Feltre (6). He ran a nice third to Cylinder beach (3) last start and meets the gelding better at the weights for that defeat.

Man of His Word (7) was sensationally backed last start – and won easy. The 1600m should not be a problem and he has the services of the master of Brisbane jockeys at the moment Jeff Lloyd. He was been well backed since the markets opened as well firming from $4.60 to $3.70 he will be thereabouts .

Selections: 9-2-3-7 rough chance 6

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Race 6

Emphasis (10) has been in consistent form. I just do not believe he is an Eagle Farm horse – back to Doomben this week I like him to upset the two favoured runners in Saga Miss (7) and Dream Finish (8). These 2000 metre races always seem to be a pitfall with the one that gets all the favours winning.

Saga Miss (7) is in career best form – but I think he grand final will be Magic Millions Day at the Gold Coast where she has a dominant record. She has raced at Doomben twice now for no result. I still think she will be in the finish here this week. Dream Finish (8) was a great run last start at Eagle Farm – a deserved win after a run of unlucky races. Lloyd stays on the mare here. La Spiaggia (4) is another who likes the Doomben track and at some nice odds of around $16 could be a rough chance to knock this lot over. Last start just didn’t fire in the Coffs Harbour Cup – but back here at Doomben this week, where he has won twice over the distance, he will improve.

Selections:10-7-8-4 rough chance 6

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Race 7 – 2016 Lough Neagh Stakes

This is a good, even field here – some local horses and some invaders from NSW – with the form being hard to line up. I am going to be bold and say that Jeff Lloyd may try and take up a forward position on Coolring (5) here this week and that could be the end of it. I think fourth up now from a spell he could be ready to show his best this weekend and, at the great odds of $10, I like his chances.

Miss Cover Girl (3) is the other one that should be suited by some speed and she does like the Doomben track – she will be in the finish for sure. Too Good To Refuse (7) steps up in distance this week and I think his chances will be enhanced by this. He has met with some serious early support being backed from $4.50 to $3.50 – with the Queenslander Jim Byrne on him I give the stallion much respect here. Most Important (4) can come out and do anything – I just cannot catch the gelding. Robbie Fradd has an amazing association with the four year old gelding, but I just cannot have him on top here.

Selections: 5-3-7-4

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Race 8

The last race of the program – the get out stakes! I think it should be more like the get in trouble stakes this week. Look there are many reserves here and they may or may not get a run and whether they do or not might well hold the key to the race.

Lady Jetsetter (16) and Tumbler (20) are genuine chances in the field if they start. I am going for the old war horse Straturbo (11) who is nicely drawn here and will get the run of the race with Anthony Allen on board. It would be great to see Anthony ride a Saturday city winner after coming back from a recent injury. Nice early odds of $8 – nice barrier and a good jockey on board!

Hard Stride (5) comes back to Doomben where the Tony Sears trained gelding has a great record – big odds here as well at $15 – look for an improved performance. Casual Choice (1) is the class runner. Nicely drawn here and has Jim Byrne on board who has won three times out of five rides on the Tony Gollan trained gelding. If he is forward enough first up here he will be hard to beat.

The other one that always runs well fresh (four starts – three wins and a second) is the Michael Nolan trained Upstart Pride (13). Jeff Lloyd has been booked for the ride and has won on the gelding previously. This is an open field – but a great way to finish the day at Doomben.

Selections: 11-5-1-13 rough chances 16 and 20

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Early Quaddie (Races 1 to 4 NSW TAB only) 1,3,4 / 2,3,12 / 1 / 2,7,13 - cost is $27 for $1

Quadrella (races 5 to 8) 2,3,7,9 / 4,7,8,10 / 3,5,7 / 1,5,11,13 (16 & 20) - cost is $192 to $1

Small Quaddie (races 5 to 8) 2,3,9 / 4,7,10 / 3,5,7 / 1,5,11 - cost is $81 to $1

Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8) 9 / 7,10 / 3,5 / 5,11 - cost is $8 to $1

Jockey Challenge

This week the field could be open – let’s say Jeff Lloyd from a dead heat of Damian Browne and Jim Byrne.

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