WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, DECEMBER 24

By Darren Winningham | Thursday, December 22, 2016

THE SATURDAY PREVIEW

This week we are back at Doomben with a forecast for a “Soft” track and a fine day – but I think unless the heavens open on Friday or Saturday we will be closer to a Good track. The weather has been warm and sunny in South East Queensland. The rail is out 2.5m for the entire course this week.

The UBET State of Origin Series returns to Doomben this week a little reminder to the Queensland pair of Jimmy Orman and Jim Byrne that NSW is leading!

Dan Griffin rode his career 1000th winner last Sunday at Sunshine Coast – dubbed “King of the Gold Coast” he is a very good rider and despite some adversity and injury in his career has come back bigger and better, again riding winners – well done Dan!
Last weekend how good was Winning Rupert? He clearly could have broken the long standing track record set by Takeover Target in 2005 when he ran 1.07.97 - just 0.1 of a second slower than the record. Personally, whilst I was happy to see the Bjorn Baker colt running so well I was glad that the record did not go. Takeover Target was an Australian and International sensation, and a personal favourite of mine. I am certain that we will see more of Winning Rupert in coming weeks with the Magic Million Guineas (1400m) as his grand final this preparation. But mark my words if he comes back for another Brisbane Winter Carnival in 2017 – there may be no opposition to this colt!

Then we had the Chris Munce and Damian Browne combination winning both two year old stakes races on the program with Ours to Keep and Champ Elect. I would hate to be in Browne’s shoes having to pick which one to ride in the Magic Millions – in his own words “Maybe Chris will wait until after the barrier draw before I decide.” Personally I think the filly has some improvement left in her – the colt Ours To Keep looked the real deal on Saturday! The early markets have him at $10 after the win last weekend – that will do me!

Winno’s Winners was on fire last weekend tipping the early Quaddie (for NSW TAB punters) – tipping four winners on the program (Ours to Keep – Winning Rupert – Emphasis and Straturbo) and I was able to have all winners on the program in my first four selections.

Let’s hope that I can back up this week with some winners to fill Santa’s sack just before Xmas.

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.

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Race 1

‘It was the night before Xmas’ when Santa hopefully brings us all some early Christmas cheer with a winner in the first race! This race has the two Matthew Dunn horses in it that have dramatically improved in recent weeks – Realing (1) and Zamex (2). Then you have Volpino (3) and Smart Devil (6) who get back in their races and make late barnstorming runs. It really is a tough race to assess – with the rail slightly out sometimes horses ridden handy and close to the lead kick on here at Doomben. I still like the impressive win of Realing (1) last start at Eagle Farm – so I am putting him on top. I think Volpino (3) will appreciate the Doomben course better than the Eagle Farm track – so I hope there is an improved performance this week from the gelding. If the track is rain affected Eastern Paradise (4) showed last start on a heavy track that he can handle the going – an improving type trained by Bryan and Daniel Guy.

Selections: 1-3-6-2

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Race 2

The two year old race for the program – I just love these. I think this race is open again this week – the Melbourne invader Garrard (6) trained by Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young has been well supported from $4.80 into $3.80 in the early markets – there must be some stable confidence here! There are a couple of interesting unraced horses in the race that are worthy of watching. The David Vandyke trained Umawinner (12) and the Toby Edmonds trained Houtzen (14) both who have won barrier trials recently. Of those who have raced I give chances to Cellargirl (3), She’s Our Star (4) and Black Mink (5). So there you go. I have tipped half the field! I am going to tip the Tony Gollan trained filly She’s Our Star (4) to win the race. It won here at the track and was well rated last start handy to the lead by Robbie Fradd – the team stays together here. I have a healthy respect for Houtzen (14) but it is the second emergency and will need some scratchings to get a start.

Selections: 4-14-3-12 rough chance 5 & 6

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Race 3

San Telmo (4) was sent out favourite last start, was first up and ran a slashing second to Arki over 1600m. Stepping up in distance here this week will be no worry and the owners will be hoping for some rain this week as the horse has webbed feet and loves wet tracks! Donald “Ducky” Baker has got Rock On Ivy (8) running in career best form and is shooting for a hat trick of wins this week – a jockey change with Dylan Dunn on board and back to Doomben – just not sure what to do here.

Shanakee (17) had no luck last start and never really got a crack at them at any stage in the straight – I think she could be the improver here this week. Astute trainer Bjorn Baker has added winkers to the mare – this could make her put her mind on the job. Again Speed Gonzales (12) goes up in distance, but he gelding does love the Doomben track so look for an improved run this week. Marman (14) comes from the Newcastle yards of David Atkins. This five year old gelding has been racing consistently with some luck and is down in the weights. Could be a hope to knock out the local chances. This trifecta could pay plenty!

Selections: 17-14-12-4 rough chances 8 and 16

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Race 4

Ding, Ding, Ding – round 2 of the UBET State of Origin Jockey Series ! Here we go – did I mention that NSW is in front – like NSW is leading at the moment! I think you get the message!

It looks like NSW may be in some trouble here in this first leg of the challenge – but with Tye Angland and Tegan Harrison representing us anything could happen. They are both extraordinary jockeys! Ringo’s A Rockstar (5) was sensational last preparation – and with a recent barrier trial at Deagon looks well placed here for a nice first up assault! Just Orm (13) from the Gollan stables showed some good form last preparation. I think this is an above average gelding and interestingly will be ridden by Jimmy “Just Orm” Orman. It has a recent barrier trial win at Deagon under his belt as well so I like this one at around the $9 mark. Always Sacred (1) is prepared by Toby Edmonds – a proud Queenslander. He is training so well at the moment, with another winning treble at the Sunshine Coast this week on Wednesday. With the engagement of Tye Angland (NSW) to ride I will be sure to give him an extra hand shake and make him put on the blue NSW cap if it salutes.

Sir Donald (9) is another interesting runner – Brad Parnham takes the ride and I think the gelding will be better suited here at Doomben. I think you can overlook his last start at Eagle Farm where he really didn’t fire. Finally, Zouzoukakia (12) trained by Queenslander Kevin Kemp, owned by proud Queenslander and Chair of the Kilcoy Race Club Con Searle ... and to be ridden by NSW legend Tegan Harrison. How good is that! This mare ran super last start at Kilcoy in the Cannonball Series Final when beaten by Sassy Tycoon in a new track record time. I just thought the week between runs last start didn’t really help her. Kempy has given her three weeks off since then. She is sure to run well for Tegan who has ridden her three times for two wins and a second.

Selections: 13-5-1-9 rough chance 12

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Race 5

So this is the second race on the program for the UBET State of Origin Jockey Series. Looks like a win to New Zealand here with Larry Cassidy pairing with Chris Anderson with Mystic Opal (8) who won so impressively last start at Eagle Farm. The pair are shooting for a hat trick here, Spot the Diff (12) is nicely weighted here and has the services of Jim Byrne (from you know where) and is trained by John Zielke (from you know where). The filly returned with a good win last start at Ipswich and has drawn well in barrier 2 – so Jimmy looks like he is on a live one this week! Denarius (3) was so unlucky last start, drawing out in barrier 17, and really fighting on well for a good third behind In His Stride. He is sure to be better placed here this week and is to be ridden by Brad Rawiller (Victoria). Fiery Heights (5) just never got into the race last start at Eagle Farm – look for a better run here.

So summing it up it could be a win to Queensland or a draw between Queensland and Victoria – what odds can I get Mr UBET?

Selections: 8-12-3-5 rough chance 6

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Race 6

This is a tough race. Siegfried (8) from the Toby Edmonds stable has been smashed in the early markets being backed from $20 into $7. It has been trialling well at the Gold Coast and does have that formidable combination of Edmonds / Lloyd to support this confidence. I like Havasay (12) here – it comes off a solid Brisbane Winter Carnival where it did run some nice races in some Group races. Last start it was beaten by Brooklyn Storm after drawing barrier 20 and having to make a wide run at Eagle Farm – back to Doomben this week I think he is a good chance. I have always had an opinion of Jetsonic (16) as well. This four year old Jet Spur gelding I think is above average – he has drawn well in barrier 5 and comes off a solid win last start at Ipswich. He has performed well here at Doomben and the Tony Gollan / Robbie Fradd duo are on fire at the moment – this could be one at odds (around $14) and will be hard to toss.

Ziggy Willie (1) won well last start at Rosehill, and in recent weeks those horses that have raced well and then come to Brisbane have franked their Sydney form with wins or commendable performances in Brisbane. With Tye Angland aboard again this week he will be in the finish for sure. The interesting runner is Crooked Blaze (5), trained at Tamworth by Leon Davies. He is a nice type as well. He recently won a barrier trial at the Gold Coast where Tegan Harrison rode him. She retains the ride here this weekend. He can put in some good performances on his day – do not leave him out of your multiples.

Selections: 12-16-8-1 rough chances 4 & 5

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Race 7

Pepperano (1) is the class runner and always performs well at Doomben. She has paid for her consistent performances this campaign having to lump 60.5kgs – brought down to 58.5 with the claim for Josh Oliver. I think she is better over 1350 meters or more so I am going away from her. Tony Gollan has two engaged here – Sheiswhatsheis (4) to be ridden by Glen Colless and My Girl Hayley (15) to be ridden by the stable apprentice Lani Fancourt. I am going to put Lani’s mount on top here – she knows this mare well and has ridden here to two wins from four starts – I do not believe she is an Eagle Farm horse and with the nice barrier this week and great odds of $7 I am gambling that Lani may just sit behind some of the speedsters in the race and flash by them all in the final 100m. There is a gear change this week as well with a tongue tie being added – maybe this will see a sharp change in her form. The stable mate is sure to be stalking her (Sheiswhatsheis) – so let’s just hope the difference in the weights may be a telling point at the finish. I think you should overlook the run of Magic I Am (8) last start. It was out of character and it may strip fitter for that run.

Selections: 15-4-1-5 rough chances 8 and 12

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Race 8

The BRC Memberships race.Why not become a member of the BRC and enjoy racing and the benefits of being a member of the Club all year round! This is a tough race to finish the day – I hope Santa has well and truly loaded his cash into your back pocket by now!

Allknight Saint (2) just cannot draw a barrier. Trainer Brad Herne must think he has stolen Santa’s beer, cake and carrot from his table – he just gets no luck week after week. Last week I was pretty confident tipping Top Tone (3) against a quality field. The gelding is back in class this week and looks well placed here. Panno Rosa (5) loves a wet track – so keep your eye on the track. If the track gets wet this gelding thrives in it. I keep saying that some horses seem to handle Eagle Farm and some do not. I think the Kelly Schweida trained L’Entrecote (6) is one of these horses. Back to Doomben this week where he won 6 weeks ago and with Damian Browne on board I think this is the one to put all your X-mas spare cash on!

Sebrina (8) was stuck five and six wide last start with no luck and if ridden with more luck this week could fill a place here. Beckoning Light (16) has had a fortnight off between runs. Larry Cassidy takes the ride this week – look for a better run here. Harada Bay (1) has 60kilograms – but he is always competitive. Luke Dittman stays on the gelding this weekend.

Selections: 6-8-3-16 rough chances 1 and 2

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Early Quaddie (Races 1 to 4 NSW TAB only) 1,3,6 / 3,4,12,14 / 12,14,17 / 1,5,9,13 - cost is $144 for $1

Quaddrella (races 5 to 8) 3,8,12 / 1,8,12,16 / 1,4,15 / 1,3,6,8,16 - cost is $180 to $1

Small Quaddie (races 5 to 8) 8,12 / 1,12,16 / 1,15 / 3,6,8 - cost is $36 to $1

Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8) 8,12 / 12,16 / 1,15 / 6,8 - cost is $16 to $1

Treble (races 6 to 8) 1,8,12,16 / 1,4,15 / 1,3,6,8,16 - cost is $60 to $1

Jockey Challenge

This week the field could be open – Brad Rawiller has some nice rides – as does Jimmy Orman and Damian Browne. I may gamble on them and see if I can get a result!

As I stated earlier looks like a close tussle in the UBET State of Origin Series, as much as it pains me to say this ... Queensland should just pip Victoria this week.

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