WINNO WINNER'S: GOLD COAST, JANUARY 7
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, January 5, 2017
Well welcome to 2017! I hope you all had a wonderful Xmas and New Year break.
The UBET State of Origin Series returns to the Gold Coast this week where the final round will be played out. Some of the jockeys who were to feature have been suspended in recent weeks but, despite that, it will go down to the wire with NSW leading from New Zealand ... with South Australia and Western Australia in hot pursuit.
As for Queensland – gooooone!!!!
Tye Angland and Josh Parr will represent NSW and I hope they can get the mighty BLUES home!
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This week the Gold Coast has its rail in the normal position and it looks like we will be racing on a “Soft” track. There are showers forecast over the coming days that may affect the track even further.
Next weekend is the 2017 Jeep Magic Millions – what a spectacle! It is a wonderful event – if you have the time make sure you get down and enjoy the festivities across the week.
But for now ... looks like Saturday will be a tough week at the Gold Coast.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
Hostwin Vintage (1) is trained by Gary Moore at Rosehill. In its last start at Newcastle I think the 2200m of the race got the gelding beaten – back to 1800m here and sure to be racing on the speed. I think he is a safe way to get some cash in the pocket for the rest of the day.
Good Luck Malela (3) is trained at the Gold Coast by Bryan and Daniel Guy. The horse has won here at the track and this may prove a slight advantage in the race. I just think he may get too far back and struggle to peg back the leaders if the track is rain affected.
Perilous Love (12) is an interesting runner. She is trained on the track by Scott Morrisey and I think has been slowly working up to the longer distance of 1800m. Could be some value at around $10 in the early markets, after as much as $20 being offered when they first opened. It does have the services of Jeff Lloyd – and he could win on a broomstick at the moment!
Gypsy Miss (6) and Bold Heart (2) both from the Stuart Kendrick stables on the Sunshine Coast look well placed here as well. They are should to make their presence felt.
Selections: 1-3-12-6 rough chance 2
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Race 2
The two year old race for the program – there will be some nervous owners, trainers and jockeys in the lead up to this race. Most of them will be looking for a win to get that extra prize money to assure them a start in the $2.5 million Jeep Magic Millions the week after. So expect a competitive race here!
The sensation of recent weeks was the Toby Edmonds trained Houtzen (1) with a astonishing run first up at Doomben. I think it would be great to see him win this week and give Toby a chance at winning the Magic Millions on his own track. Sure there are many hurdles to overcome in the next week – barrier draws, how the horse pulls up etc. but I hope to see the filly take her place in the field next week.
The John Zielke trained Make My Own Luck (4) ran a great race last start behind Champ Elect when only beaten by 0.2 lengths. She could be the improver in the field this week. Never in Doubt (5) from the Tony Gollan stables has been gelded since his first up run – maybe look for an improved performance here.
There may be one here at some odds. I saw it win at Murwillumbah the other week and it is trained on the track by David Kelly! Red Deck (6) – Matthew Palmer retains the ride – watch out!
Selections: 1-4-5-6 rough chance 9
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Race 3
This is a tough field with many chances. I have no idea where to start or look here!
I am going to look at the runners that may be handy or on the pace. Firstly there is Pop ‘n’ Scotch (2) trained by Liam Birchley. It has three wins at the track. Then there is Uncle Gerry (12) trained in Canberra by Joe Cleary. It should run well – the gelding goes no good on a heavy track so take note! Robert Heathcote has Spirit Minded (10) engaged here as well, I think you should forgive the last start as she drew barrier 17 and really had no luck.
Scotti Be Gotti (6) is trained by Stephen Lee at Ballina and has the “King of the Gold Coast” – Daniel Griffin - riding it. This is another that has great form at the track. Matthew Dunn has a couple engaged as well. I think the pick of them is Explosive One (7) who is fourth up this week and I think will really be suited by the 2200m of this race.
It is an open field as I said – but there may be some value! I have not even mentioned last start winner Fuerza (1) who has to lump 61 kilograms this week!
Selections: 12-2-10-7 rough chances 1 and 6
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Race 4
Now this is a good race. If the track is rain affected Panno Rossa (4) is the one to be on here, trained on the track by Kelly Doughty and maybe he will be strapped by the lovely Chloe Currant this week for a change of fortune!
I tell you what, I did see one of the runs of the day at Doomben on Xmas Eve. It was Harada Bay (2) he ran enormous! He has won here at the Gold Coast track and Luke Dittman seems to get the best out of the gelding! L’Entrecote from the Kelly Schweida yards has been racing consistently as well. Jeff Lloyd takes over this week from the suspended Damian Browne.
Black Jet (7) ran a cheeky race last start at Doomben at massive odds – a return to that type of run will see him in the finish here.
So I think you could bracket or quinella Harada Bay and Panno Rossa for a good result!
Selections: 2-4-3-7
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Race 5
The 900 metres at the Gold Coast – get out quick lead and rail well and you normally win! But with a capacity field of 14 here it could be vital to get to the front and hold on!
I suppose all the omen betting people will be backing “Dylan’s Luck” (2) to be ridden by Dylan Dunn from Victoria – who represents South Australia later in the day in the State of Origin Series.
Some of the chances have drawn wide here – Sir Donald (5) has got barrier 20 and Brad Parnham from Western Australia may need a GPS to find his way around the tight Gold Coast track from out there!
Moss River (15) has some big wraps on it. Trained in Canberra by Joe Cleary and to be ridden by regular jockey Noel Callow has drawn in barrier 11 at this stage, but has been friendless in the early markets at around $26. This is Australia (6) has drawn well and Matthew McGuren takes the ride for Matthew Dunn. McGuren rides the Gold Coast track really well.
Winning Supreme (7) is another with a genuine chance and is trained by Gary Moore – watch out if he is present on course and trains a double on the program. I am sure that the celebrations will be unique as usual! I tipped Just Orm (10) the other week and it was scratched from that race. I am sure the extra few weeks has seen some improvement in this Tony Gollan trained gelding who has not raced since last year’s Magic Millions Day!
There is another one at odds here trained by Bruce Hill. Hidden Light (12) has drawn well and has a superb track record. Do not worry about the jockey either. Brooke Ainsworth gets a three kilogram claim and she knows this filly well having ridden her three times for two wins and a second – this one could be some real value at around the $26 mark.
It may pay to take the field in your first leg of the Quaddie this week as it could be a rough result!
Selections: 6-10-7-12 rough chances 1-2-5 & 15
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Race 6
The Nerang RSL Open Handicap – well there is a blast from the past – I used to go there all the time when I lived on the Gold Coast! One of the most progressive and modern clubs that you will find on the Gold Coast – has a mad sports bar area and TAB area – something for the punter and sports enthusiasts!
Believe Yourself (6) has come from Singapore to the Waterhouse team at Randwick and now onto Toby Edmonds on the Gold Coast. Timeless Prince (10) from the Tony Newing yards at Gosford is one that loves a wet track – in fact the wetter the better so keep your eye on this track rating come Saturday.
Eckstein (14) has been racing very consistently of late and despite being trained at Goulburn by Kurt Goldman the filly has a trial win here at the Gold Coast under her belt. Brenton Advulla takes the ride this week and I think she will be hard to beat in this race.
Royal Occasion (15) has an impeccable first up record with four starts for three wins. I think from the nice barrier he will be in the finish – he has been primed with a recent barrier trial at Murwillumbah where the effort was sound. Rough Eddie (17) is the first emergency and regular jockey, apprentice Rebecca Williams is aboard. With a 3 kilogram claim here he gets in extremely well if he gets a start!
El Sasso (8) from the Peter and Paul Snowden stables in Sydney always seems to run well fresh. He has a nasty barrier draw with 17 to contend with but with any luck should be in thereabouts.
Selections:14-15-17-8 rough chances 6-10 & 13
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Race 7
Ok here we go – Round 3 of the UBET State of Origin jockey series!
We all know that I bleed BLUE – so there is no pressure on Tye Angland or Joshua Parr to get us home this year!
I am going to be biased here and say NSW will run first and second and end it all – right here – right now!
Seriously, Groovy Gal (16) from the Matthew Dunn yards with Joshua Parr on board has drawn well and comes off a recent nice barrier trial win. Tye Angland rides the Toby Edmonds trained Always Sacred (19), trained here and goes well here at the track and has a good second up record. The gelding has a gear change this week with the blinkers coming off for the first time as well – so hopefully there will be an improved performance.
Those sneaky sand gropers from Western Australia have good rides as well. Ringo’s A Rockstar (13) is to be ridden by Chris Parnham has a win second up and has raced well at the Gold Coast. His older brother Brad Parnham is riding Motion Granted (21) for Barry Baldwin – both are genuine chances!
Queenslander Jimmy Orman is riding Heartford (8). If it had not drawn barrier 22 I may have put it on top (only kidding!), but again it is a genuine chance and is undefeated at the Gold Coast track with three wins from three starts. Now Orman just needs a little luck from out there and it will certainly be in the finish!
Selections: 16-19-13-8 rough chances 3-14 & 21
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Race 8
The last race of the day – and the final race of the UBET State of Origin series for 2016/17.
This is the toughest field of the day I reckon – if you are in front by now it may be worth slotting the wallet in the pocket and heading to the bar for a drink!
Volpino (15) is the favourite here – and is coming back from 1600m to the 1400m of the Gold Coast track. Look I am a fan of the horse but I just think there is too much against it this week. It is my lay of the day. (Now I have said this Ric McMahon will win on it).
I am going to select horses that have won here over the course and distance – all of them are pretty big odds but anything could happen – so here goes!
Let’s start with Umgeni (2), second up from a spell and has won four races here - $20 in early markets. Then you have Secret Puzzle (12) trained by Les Ross and to be ridden by Dom Tourneur . I thought it was unlucky last start. It has drawn wide here but does like the track - $14 in the markets. Then you have Tamrookum (17) trained at the Gold Coast by John Morrissey which has won its last two starts here leading. Has drawn well in barrier 2. Michael “Muppy” Hellyer on board again this week – he is riding in great form and has ridden the gelding to his last two wins on the track! This one is $15 in the early markets.
Denarius (6) and Forgotten Years (7) both raced in the same race last start at Doomben – again I am not sure how these two will cope with the tight turning Gold Coast track. Linda Meech and Tye Angland take the mounts respectively.
Open Book (10) is an interesting runner here from the Toby Edmonds stable – formerly trained by Joseph Pride in Sydney – the six year old gelding has only been narrowly defeated in all three starts since resuming. In his last start was only beaten 0.7 lengths by Suspense at Rosehill. I think he is a good each way chance at around $9 and he is to be ridden by Joshua Parr (NSW lad).
Themis (16) from the Tony Gollan stables will be suited here this week as well – but just does not fire on wet tracks. It could be an interesting last race with the South Australian pair of Dylan Dunn and Dom Tourneur having some nice rides!
Selections: 2-10-12-17 rough chances 6-7 and 16
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Early Quaddie (Races 1 to 4 NSW TAB only) 1,3 / 1 / 1,2,7,10,12 / 2,3,4 - cost is $30 for $1
Quadrella (races 5 to 8) 1,5,6,7,10,12 / 8,14,15,17 / 3,8,13,16,19,21 / 2,7,10,12,17 - cost is $720 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 5 to 8) 6,7,10,12 / 14,15,17 / 13,16,19 / 2,10,12,17 - cost is $144 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8) 6,10 / 14,15 / 13,16,19 /2,10,12 - cost is $36 to $1
Treble (races 6 to 8) 8,14,15,17 / 3,8,13,16,19,21 / 2,7,10,12,17 - cost is $120 to $1
Jockey Challenge
This week the field is very open. I am going for two that may be a price ... Luke Dittman and Joshua Parr. I think they both may finish on 7 points and that could be enough to see them share the spoils!
As I stated earlier looks like a close tussle in the UBET State of Origin Series, as much as it pains me to say this ….
NSW will win easy! The dark horses are still South Australia and Western Australia.
Good luck and good punting! There could be some massive value in the Quaddie this week!
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