WINNO'S WINNERS: EAGLE FARM, FEBRUARY 18
By Darren Winningham | Friday, February 17, 2017
This week we are back at Eagle Farm with the rail in the true position and the forecast for this week’s program is for a “Good” track on a warm day.
Well the week has been dominated by the return of the mighty mare “Winx” – an astounding performance on Monday at Randwick.
Winno has been a little preoccupied this week – so apologies in advance for the brief overview of the races.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
Race 1
We start off this week with a two year old race over 1000m. Looking for some value here. The top weight Paradis Imperial (1) and current favourite trained at Rockhampton by Tony McMahon has won five in a row now – with the last win at Eagle Farm being enormous. This week the filly has to contend with 59.5 kilograms – so I am giving her a miss. I am tipping the Peter and Will Hulbert trained Showashadow (12) at some nice odds of $12. I think the run first up was great and she will have benefitted from that race experience.
Liam Birchley has made a gear change to Wicked Express (8) this week with the addition of blinkers. I think this may lead to a better performance here. Last start she was well supported but just faded late. The interesting runner is the debutant Capital Gain (5) from the Paul Butterworth stable. I haven’t been able to find any official barrier trial form but if the early markets are any indication the gelding must have some ability as he has been destroyed in the betting firming from $14 to $6.50. Ryan Wiggins rides Beraht (3) who I think will be better second up here. If you like the favourite don’t let me steer you away – but I think bookies may gamble with him closer to post time.
Selections: 12-8-5-3
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Race 2
The distance race on the program! **Sigh**. Let me get the darts out and the dart board for this race. The throw has landed on ... wait for it ... Three Points (7) to win! I think that with the weight advantage this week against Morendi (3) he should be able to turn the tables for a last start defeat. Do not underestimate Walhaan (4) who always runs well third up and does have a handy weight advantage for apprentice Adam Sewell who has been riding in great form of late. There has been some good money for Three Point firming from $3.70 earlier in the week to $3.20. He does have the services of Jeff Lloyd as well.
Selections: 7-3-4-5
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Race 3
Jim Beam Open Handicap! Well there is a nice drop if I do say so myself! I thought it would a bit bold to tip Jim Byrne here on Too Good to Refuse (1) to win the Jim Beam Handicap. I am not sure even if he likes it! His mount comes off a small lay off. I have read that that Desleigh Forster is getting him ready for an assault on the Autumn Carnival in Sydney so he may not be wound up this weekend but his style of racing of getting back and coming late could prove a telling factor here this week as the field has been decimated by some early scratchings. I really don’t think you can fault the good, consistent form of Upstart Pride (2). He has been racing well and although defeated last start by Divine Service (4) over this course and distance does meet him slightly better at the weights. Now if you have been following my tips. I have just given South African jockey Jeff Lloyd a hat trick of wins in the first three races!
Selections: 2-4-1-3
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Race 4
This is another spin the wheel and see what number it stops on. A really tough race with $7 the field. May I suggest that you keep your eye on any market movers here to see if you want to have a bet? For the record I am tipping Old Habits (6) who it drawn wide, but should be able to settle and come home late on the big open Eagle Farm track. This is his third run in from a spell and I expect a good performance. The Garnett Taylor trained Bold Avenue (8) has been in consistent form at the country tracks with a last start win in Rockhampton. I expect him to be on the pace and may just be too hard to run down in the final 100 metres. Revitalise (7) has won a recent barrier trial and did run a nice race a couple of weeks ago when defeated by Deconstructed. I think I will be sitting back and watching this race!
Selections: 6-8-7-13
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Race 5
This is the opening leg of the quadrella this week. It is a Class 3 Plate! They get harder each week! I don’t know what happened last start with Candika (15) – she just seemed to get way too far back before making a barnstorming run to fly home late and be narrowly beaten. Maybe the extra 100 metres will help. Hesitation (14) looks well placed here in this grade. The Kelso Wood trained mare should race handy here and may just be too good in the straight. I have respect for Naranja (11) and Leider (10) both who have been racing consistently and deserve a change of fortune.
Selections: 15-14-11-10 rough chances 2 and 12
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Race 6
This is another open field with $5 the field. I thought the run of Sky Kingdom (1) first up at the Sunshine Coast was full of merit. The weight is a little concerning here this week and he does like softer ground so I am just not sure. I think I have talked myself into backing Hudson County (9) who gets in really well this week with the claim for Brooke Ainsworth. He is drawn nice in barrier 3 and I think will just pop out and get his own way in front and, with no weight on his back, will be hard to run down. Brooke rides them really well from the front so I think he will give you a great sight here this weekend.
Beatniks (5) has been looking for a race to win. She was unlucky last start being caught wide in the race – this may be her chance. I do think the mare goes better at Doomben but she will be thereabouts in the straight. Dance of Heroes (8) has been transferred from Chris Waller stables to the David Vandyke team at the Sunshine Coast. The six year old gelding has a mountain of gear changes – too many for me to list here - but maybe has found a new lease on racing since moving north to the warmer weather. A horse to watch.
Selections: 9-1-5-8
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Race 7
Hi I’m Back (6) ran well first up and has a great second up record. The Tony Gollan/Jim Byrne team are taking on the Toby Edmonds/Jeff Lloyd team who have Our Lady Mac (10) engaged. I think it is a race between the two of them. Both have good solid recent form. Kelly Schweida has All Troops (12) in the race. He has never won past 1100 metres but, on his latest runs, he gives me the impression that the 1200m may suit him this week. Short and brief here - quinella and box the exacta the 6 & 10.
Selections: 6-10-12-3
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Race 8
The lucky last punters!
I want to mention two that have been absolutely smashed in early betting – All Over Bosanova (9), backed from $10 into $5.50 and the second emergency Niccanova (18) hammered from $13 to $4.80. David Fowler and Josh Fleming will have fun calling these two if they are in the finish! Look I am staying solid here – Tyzone has been transferred to Lawrie Mayfield-Smith from Roy Chillemi since his first up run when he was beaten by Oink (1). You are probably saying I am talking through my pocket but he had no luck last start at Eagle Farm after being knocked down at the start and then being belted in the straight – but as a good horse does he kept on coming and was only beaten by 1.8 lengths. This week he has a wide barrier to contend with in barrier 16 but I am certain Brad Stewart will be able to give the gelding every chance here.
Sylpheed (7) has been transferred from Gai Waterhouse yards to the Toby Edmonds stables on the Gold Coast. She has had two barrier trials and looks primed for a forward run here. I cannot leave out Oink (1). He was very courageous in winning first up – but you come to expect this from this Kelly Schweida trained gelding. He tries his heart out every time he goes around. He has a big weight this weekend but Paul Hammersley has ridden him 7 times in his 10 career starts and knows him well. I looked for some value here as well and found Bold Shot (11) who came off a nice win at Rockhampton then raced against Oink (1) two weeks ago and finished third beaten just 1.6 lengths. He meets his rivals better at the weights for that defeat so do not leave him out of your exotics. As for the two that have been backed – maybe it is just some overzealous owners’ money – but they have both well at their latest starts!
Selections: 4-7-1-11 rough chances 9 & 18
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Early Quaddie (Races 1 to 4 NSW TAB only)
1,5,8,12 / 3,4,7 / 1,2,4 / 6,7,8 - cost is $108 for $1
Quadrella (races 5 to 8)
10,11,14,15 / 1,5,9 / 6,10 / 1,4,7,9,11 - cost is $120 for $1
Small Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
14,15 / 1,9 / 6,10 / 1,4,7 - cost is $24 for $1
Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
15 / 9 / 6,10 / 1,4,7 - cost is $6 for $1
Treble (races 6 to 8)
1,5,9 / 6,10 / 1,4,7,9,11 - cost is $30 for $1
Jockey Challenge
This week it maybe all over after the first three races – with a Jeff Lloyd win!
Good luck and good punting.
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