WINNO'S WINNERS: EAGLE FARM, MARCH 4
By Darren Winningham | Friday, March 3, 2017
This week we are back at Eagle Farm with the rail out 5m for the entire course and a forecast for a ‘Good’ track under an overcast sky.
Looks an open program this week, but with Sydney having a heavy track for their races, punters may be looking for some firm tracks to have some solid bets!
Winno has had a recent illness and health setback – but is on the mend and if all goes well will return to the track next weekend! He has been spelling well and is looking forward to returning to the track to catch up with everyone!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
Race 1
We start off this week with one of these lottery distance races – each week we seem to find a different winner!
I think the race is between Morendi (1), Caillebote (3) and Three Points (6). They all have been running around in similar races in recent runs and have been performing consistently. I will be not having a bet on the race but for the record I have put Three Points (6) on top this week – I thought he was unlucky in the run last start and Jeff Lloyd has been rebooked to ride the six year old gelding. Frightening Bolt (4) to be ridden by Michael “Muppy” Hellyer has had some early backing in the race firming from $8 to $5 in the early markets – maybe the Michael Nolan stable is looking for the bigger Eagle Farm track this week to finally get the win on the board.
Selections: 6-3-1-7 rough chance 4
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Race 2
I think that the topweight is the way to go here – back drastically in grade this weekend. That’s Hi I’m Back (1), trained by Tony Gollan and to be ridden by Jim Byrne. Has put together some solid runs and has been narrowly beaten at his last two starts and this weekend he really gets the chance to put a win on the board. Manaya (7) I think is a really nice type but has been plagued by injury – this week she is second up here and has a raft of gear changes. Jimmy Orman has been booked to ride – she is the likely challenger. So why not take the two Jims in a quinella in Race 2?
Dylan’s Luck (5) won well last start at the Gold Coast. He returns to Eagle Farm where he hasn’t placed in two starts so maybe not the best form for a race like this. The Tony Sears trained, Honey Holt (9) is an interesting runner as well. First up here, I hear on the grapevine that the mare has been working well in Toowoomba so if the smoke signals I am getting from up on the hill are correct look for a forward run this weekend!
Selections: 1-7-9-5
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Race 3
A two year old race! Let me say it early Houtzen (1) cannot win this week!
Now I have got your attention .....
This is an open race without Houtzen (1) running – she is also nominated to run in Canberra in the Black Opal on Sunday. She has 63 kilograms and a wide barrier here... I think we will see her run at Eagle Farm and rest up before she heads to the Golden Slipper at Rosehill.
The unraced horses may hold the key to this race, but there has been no real early market support for any runners at this stage. I am just tipping in race book order – 1,2,3,4 keeping it simple this week!
Selections: 1-2-3-4
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Race 4
I like Bronzed Venom (3) here. I was at Murwillumbah to see the gelding resume and defeat the field without being tested. Then he backed up and won at the Gold Coast two weeks ago – if he runs here this weekend I think he will be hard to beat in this field. I do like the $12 on offer each way here. La Cigale (7) and Lieder (8) both ran great races last start here when defeated by Candika – they are sure to fill the placings again this week. Vaulting Ambition (12) is a lightly raced gelding from the Chris Anderson stables. He raced well here at Eagle Farm last start in a similar grade and I think may be tough here to beat – Larry Cassidy retains the ride again here this week.
Selections: 3-12-7-8
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Race 5
Fiery Heights (8) looks well in here this week – with the phenomenal team of Toby Edmonds and Jeff Lloyd looks the hardest to beat here. Right or Wrong (2) resumes after a twelve month layoff. He looked pretty good winning a barrier trial at Deagon last week. Paul Hammersley rode him in the trial and is booked for the ride this weekend.
Flamboyer (1) will probably lead again. I just think the Eagle Farm track is not his best track and leaves him a sitting duck each week for something to run him down. Skylimit (11) gets in on the minimum here and does have a genuine liking for the track – watch out for an improved performance.
Selections: 8-2-1-11
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Race 6
I’ve Gotta Nel (5) has won his last two starts and is stepping up to Saturday city grade for the first time. I have found a couple of roughies here that I think may be good odds and may show something. The first one is Sister Patti (14) who likes to lead. It was narrowly beaten two starts ago here by Oink and that race has proved to be a strong form race in recent weeks. The Les Ross trained filly has since won at Toowoomba. I think at the good odds of $41 she will give you a great sight.
The other one is Beaudacious (9) from the Kelly Schweida stables. He has had a great run of late with some good winners each weekend. The filly has had two recent barrier trials in preparation for the run this weekend and at $16 represents some nice value!
Moshki (6) is a very interesting runner. She has been transferred to the Colt Prosser stables at Wauchope and has settled in well. She has won two recent barrier trials – the last trial she smoked the field to win by 11 lengths. I think you should keep a watch on this one as she likes to lead. She had drawn poorly in barrier 16 and may have to be ridden for luck here– but my spies from the Mid North Coast have big wraps on this one. She has been well backed from $8 to $5 in the early markets as well.
Selections: 5-14-9-6
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Race 7
Beatniks (4) won well last start over this course and distance and should be hard to beat again this week! Jim Byrne stays on the Steve O’Dea trained mare. Last weekend Craiglea Wandoo (9) surprised everyone, including me, when winning the last race at Doomben, however, the way the gelding finished off the race I think he will get the 1600m of this race this weekend. The quick back up is my only concern.
Raffinato (10) won here last start at the good odds of $12. She gets in well here and, at best,will be hardest to beat. Friendly Dragon (6) races best at Eagle Farm so I cannot leave him out this week. It is a very open race with many chances so if you like one stick with it!
Selections: 4-10-9-6 rough chance 5
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Race 8
Looks a match races here between the Tony Gollan trained Dee Nine Elle (1) and the Toby Edmonds trained Bound For Love (4). Both have recent wins on the board. I am just leaning towards the top weight, Dee Nine Elle (1) to win the race. It has had a month between runs since winning here when she lead all the way. I don’t think that Jim Byrne will need to lead this week – and it may be difficult from barrier 13. Bound For Love (4) is up in grade and has a poor second up record, but, it does have the Toby Edmonds polish!
Passionflower (8) has run two gallant seconds in recent starts and probably deserves a change of luck – the bigger track will probably assist this week. Mercurian (10) trained by Greg Bennett at Scone had his first look at Eagle Farm last start and performed well so maybe there will be a further improvement this week. There is one here at some nice odds of $31 – trained by Robert Heathcote. Neuschwanstein (14) has a wonderful third up record with two wins and a placing from six starts – I note that Ron Stewart has been booked for the ride this week and in recent weeks he has been on fire riding some long priced winners – if you are looking for a genuine each way chance in the last I don’t think you can go past this one!
Selections:1-4-14-8 rough chances 2 and 10
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Early Quaddie (Races 1 to 4 NSW TAB only)
3,6 / 1,7 / 1 / 3,12 - cost is $8 for $1
Quadrella (races 5 to 8)
2,8,11 / 5,6,9,14 / 4,9,10 /1,4,14 - cost is $108 for $1
Small Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
2,8 / 5,14 / 4,10 / 1,4,14 - cost is $24 for $1
Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
8 / 5,9 / 4 / 1,4 - cost is $4 for $1
Treble (races 6 to 8)
5,6,9,14 / 4,9,10 / 1,4,14 - cost is $36 for $1
Jockey Challenge
This week it looks one way traffic and I am sure he will be short odds – a Jeff Lloyd win!
Good luck and good punting.
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