WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, MARCH 11
By Darren Winningham | Friday, March 10, 2017
We are back at Doomben this week – punters can bet with confidence!
The track is good and the rail Is 4.5m out for the entire course. Sometimes this may favour leaders. There is a forecast for some rain in South East Queensland over the weekend – but the weather man and Josh Fleming has been wrong in recent weeks!
Winno has decided that he is fit enough to return to the track this weekend! I am looking forward to catch up with the racing crowd again!
Last week I was able to nail a few good winners – but how good was the win of Houtzen! Absolutely amazing performance by the filly trained by Toby Edmonds and ridden by Jeff Lloyd. Let’s all send the team best wishes when she contests the Golden Slipper next weekend at Rosehill!
Now, I am not normally one to gloat but in last week’s Winno’s Winners I said this ... and I quote;
“There is one here at some nice odds of $31 – trained by Robert Heathcote. Neuschwanstein has a wonderful third up record with two wins and a placing from six starts. I note that Ron Stewart has been booked for the ride this week and in recent weeks he has been on fire riding some long priced winners. If you are looking for a genuine each way chance in the last I don’t think you can go past this one!”
AND IT WON!
Thanks to all the loyal supporters who had a win on this long priced winner. A special thanks to Josh Fleming for the shout out last weekend on Sky Channel in the preview and for the bagging me for tipping Neuschwanstein. There will be retribution this weekend!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
We open the day with another staying race lottery. I think I will place my $10 on a Lotto ticket instead of investing in this race and probably may have more chance of success! I do like Explosive One (5) from the Matthew Dunn yards at Murwillumbah. The mare has hit a purple patch of form and continues to thrive. Special mention to Bernadette Cooper from Sky Channel who declared it last start at the great odds of $20 when it won here two weeks ago!
If I am tipping horses that are on the improve I will tip Comacina (4) who has been working through the grades and I think, after reviewing his last run, he will be suited by the longer distance here this weekend. Hi Son (3) was beaten in the last stride a fortnight ago by Explosive One (5) and they meet again this weekend with similar weights.
Selections: 5-4-3-2
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Race 2
There is a small field for the two year old race this week. Last start the Kelly Schweida trained Pah Terie (2) franked his first up run with a great effort second up here with a win. Jeff Lloyd retains the ride and looks the one to beat here. In the same race Lady Lark (5) was beaten by Pah Terie (2) here over the distance. Despite the changes in the weights this week I think she will run a place here again. The David Vandyke trained Eminent (4) had some good wraps on him when he stepped out last November and was beaten 5.7 lengths in his first up run. Since that failure he has won a barrier trial and then stepped out at his home track at Sunshine Coast to get his first career win.
Capital Gain (3) was very impressive at the Gold Coast last weekend. I see that Matthew McGillivray has returned to Brisbane this weekend to take a few rides and is riding this one. He is a very good apprentice and his claim will come in handy here.
Selections: 2-4-5-3
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Race 3
An Open sprint here with some nice horses lining up. I think that Rob Heathcote may have found the key to Pinch River (4). He destroyed a similar field here last start when he led most of the way. He looked great in that run and I think he will be hard to beat again. Londehero (3) will enjoy the speed on if Pinch River (4) goes hard in front again. He normally produces a good run first up and has been wound up for this first up assignment with an impressive barrier trial performance at the Gold Coast two weeks ago.
There has been some good betting support for the Stuart Kendrick trained Devine Centuri (6) who does love the Doomben track. Regular rider Ryan Wiggins is reunited with the four year old mare this weekend. He has an impressive record on her with four rides for two wins and a placing. The support has come very quickly since markets have opened firming from $5 to $4.20. This may be one to keep an eye on. I am putting the old war horse Steel Zip (1) in to round out the placings. I am more confident seeing that Jeff Lloyd has been booked for the ride. He has a wonderful record on this grand nine year old gelding with nine rides for four wins and four placings. With some speed on here this week watch for the mighty grey gelding to be flashing late out wide.
Selections: 4-3-6-1
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Race 4
Up The Tempo (7) has had blinkers applied this week. This may help her settle and race a little more generously. I do think the 2030 metres of this race will be of benefit to her this week but, to be honest, I do not think I can go past the top weight here – Ahndras (1). She is looking for four wins in a row and I think the odds of $3 is good value against this lot.
I see that Bjorn Baker has sent one of his north here this weekend to race – Shock Alert (2) the three year old gelding has had some early support and have moved into favouritism at $2.30 after a maiden win at Hawkesbury last start over 1600 metres. Chris Munce trains Son of a Brut (3) and has a liking for Doomben and a firm track that he should get here this weekend.
Selections: 1-2-7-3
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Race 5
I will tip Time to Torque (3) here. Last start he was beaten up, knocked down and had no luck in the straight here when beaten by Craiglea Wandoo. I think the $13 on offer is over the odds and a good each way bet here. Cashing Up (4) is coming back in distance from 2000 metres to 1630 metres. I really do think he is best suited over the mile and he races well here with two wins and a second from five starts. Look for an improved run here this weekend and is good odds at $16.
The favourite in the race at the moment is Sheiswhatsheis (2) whojust has raced without luck in her last few starts – the mare has had some serious support in the early markets being well backed from $4.20 into $2.80. Lani Fancourt rides her this week for Tony Gollan and her 2 kilogram claim will be beneficial to her chances here. I am the Sculptor (5) will be better suited here over the mile. It is racing as if he is looking for a mile.
There are some roughies here as well in Old Habits (11), who has been transferred to Noel Doyle on the Gold Coast from Kurt Goldman’s stables, and the Steve O’dea trained Capetown Hussy (11) who is looking for a hat trick of wins. If the favourite doesn’t run a place here and my tips manage to sneak in the top 4 the trifectas and exotics could play a motza! So you may have to go wide this week in the first leg of your quaddies!
Selections: 3-4-2-5 rough chances 9 and 11
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Race 6
Siegfried (3) has been racing consistently and looks well placed here after a narrow defeat by Cylinder Beach last start. Jopa (2) always runs well here at Doomben and just cannot be left out. Aldini (4) is an interesting runner. He has had a month off between runs and I do think that he performs best here at Doomben. He is in his fourth run from a spell this weekend and usually runs well at his fourth run after a spell. Ben Currie makes the trek from Toowoomba this weekend with Cantbuybetter (8). He drops six kilograms for his recent defeat on his home track last start when beaten by I’m Alone (who is engaged in race 8 here today). There has been some good support for this one firming from $17 to $10 since the markets have opened.
Bentles (12) is one of those horses that normally races well when he bowls along in front and is not taken on. He hasn’t led in his two runs back from a spell. This week I see Tegan Harrison has been booked to ride the five year old gelding. I assume that we may see a change in riding tactics and the horse may lead this weekend. With the rail out and down on the minimum here this week there are a few things in his favour.
Selections: 3-2-4-8 rough chance 12
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Race 7
This is one of the toughest races on the program this week – it is $6 the field!
Jest Excel (15) was well backed winning her maiden at Ipswich in her only race start. This week she has drawn wide but with Lani Fancourt riding and her claim she may lead. I expect that Damian Browne will just sit off the speed on Forbidden Kisses (7) and will probably wait and make one last surge in the final 100 metres. I think that the $8 on value is a good bet each way here. The other runner that has grabbed my attention is Rodanos (12) who has had two career starts for two impressive wins. I cannot find any official barrier trial form for the three year old gelding but the reports from Toowoomba suggest that he has been working well. Andrew Spinks takes the ride here.
Ima Showman (6) was super impressive in his first start up from a spell here a month ago now. Kevin Kemp always places his horses well so I expect him to be competitive here. Hot Gossip (17) is an emergency and may get a run here. I am of the firm opinion that he is better ridden a little quiet and making a late run. With some speed in this race this week he may get the opportunity to be ridden that way.
Selections: 7-15-12-6 rough chances 13 and 17
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Race 8
The last race ... “the get out stakes”! Well I think it should be renamed the “get in trouble stakes”!
Havasay (14) has been very disappointing this preparation. Last start he pulled up lame so there were some excuses for the poor run – he has had a month between runs – maybe he could show something this weekend. Courtza King (13) was super last start here at Doomben flying home late for a great win. I am tipping a roughie here this weekend like last weekend – Mystical Renegade (8). I know that it is stepping up in grade here, but I really think that the Eagle Farm track does not suit this four year old gelding trained by David Kelly. I think you should overlook the last start failure there and punt up at the $26 each way here for an improved performance. Fortini (4) is coming off a last start midweek win at Eagle Farm and the start before he ran well behind Quatronic. With that win under his belt he may just go on with it here this weekend.
Toby Edmonds has Open Book (9) engaged here. He has drawn out near the airport in barrier 17 – but that magician Jeff Lloyd is aboard! I have reviewed a trial that he won two weeks ago at the Gold Coast and it was impressive. Now he has been in the stable a little bit longer maybe Toby has a better gauge on the gelding. Look for an improved effort this week if he gets any luck from the wide barrier. I’m Alone (6) has just been racing in consistent form since his maiden win at Lismore back in December. The stable is quietly confident of a good run here after a great win at Toowoomba a fortnight ago. I think the weight may stop him this weekend however, part owner Kurt Croft says that the $18 on offer is a great price each way and offered a free feed at yum cha for everyone if his horse wins!
Selections: 8-13-4-9 rough chance 14
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Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW TAB only)
3,4,5 / 2,4,5 / 3,4 / 1,2,7 - cost is $54 for $1
Quadrella (races 5 to 8)
2,3,4,5 / 2,3,4,8 / 7,12,15 / 4,8,9,13 - ncost is $192 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
2,3,4 / 3,4,8 / 7,12,15 / 4,8,13 - cost is $81 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
3,4 / 3,8 / 7,12 / 8,13 - cost is $16 to $1
Treble (races 6 to 8)
2,3,4,8 / 7,12,15 / 4,8,9,13 - cost is $48 to $1
Jockey Challenge
This week the field looks like a Jeff Lloyd win, however Ron Stewart has some nice rides and he could be some value if you would like to back a long shot this week!
Next week I will try and do a preview of Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill as well as my Brisbane tips – so stay tuned!
Good luck and good punting!
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