WINNO'S WINNERS: ROSEHILL, MARCH 18
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, March 16, 2017
ROSEHILL – GOLDEN SLIPPER DAY - SATURDAY 18 MARCH 2017
It is such a shame this weekend that it looks like we will be racing on a heavy track for 2017 Golden Slipper Day.
With some amazing races let’s hope the rain stops and the track gets a chance to dry out a little. It could be a day of history with many records being broken – so be sure to enjoy this historic meeting.
I am looking forward to seeing the Toby Edmonds trained Houtzen go around in the Golden Slipper – a great trainer and jockey combination is on show here with Jeff Lloyd partnering the filly who to date is undefeated. Jeff may also become the oldest jockey to ride a Golden Slipper winner in the history of the race. He is riding in career best form!
Then there is Gai Waterhouse who does not have a runner in the race this year – I cannot remember since when I have been punting that this has have happened to her stable!
The rail will be 3 metres out for the entire circuit and the track is rated a Heavy 9 – but may be downgraded.
It is a ten race marathon so pace yourself punters!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
Race 1
The Manion Cup starts the program over 2400m. This will be a real slugfest on the wet surface – but they do get first crack at the track! I am going to tip the Robert Hickmott trained Our Century (4) here – the lightly raced six year old gelding with only nine career starts. Although there is no real exposed wet weather form I just think that he looks the goods. The danger should be the all conquering Darren Weir stable ... Big Duke (3) who comes off a nice win in the Launceston Cup nearly a month ago. When Weir gets his stayers in good form they usually race well. This one fits that brief. As for the rest – take your choice!
Selections: 4-3-5-2
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Race 2
Samantha (8) looks well in here. She is a real duck and love the wet tracks. I am nearly going to declare her here in this race but my second selection Tempt Me Not (4) will be hard to toss as well at around the $10 mark. Tempt Me Not (4) races well fresh and won a trial about ten days ago on a heavy track at Randwick. Raiment (6) is another that will enjoy a wet track and should be included in your top three. I actually think that the box trifecta of 4-6-8 may get a nice result here for the punters!
Selections: 8-4-6-3
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Race 3
Tactical Advantage (1) has had a month off since his last win at Rosehill – but has had a solid barrier trial win on a heavy track at Warwick Farm 9 days ago. He looks ready to perform here again. Jockey Glyn Schofield has ridden the gelding four times for four wins and retains the ride this weekend for the James Cummings stable. Tommy Berry rides Crafty Cop (4) here for the Hawkes team – he has some solid wet weather track form as well and if you like taking “themed bets” this is a great one – Tactical Advantage and the Crafty Cop!
Do not underestimate the Peter & Paul Snowden trained My Country (6). She is a very good filly and I think the wet track will be no dramas here – she has had two recent solid barrier trials in typical Snowden preparation for a first up assignment. Blake Shinn is a key booking as well. There is one right down the bottom – Improvement (12), a filly bred owned by Gerry Harvey. She has performed well on some wet tracks in her career and down in the weights here could improve from her recent failure at Moonee Valley where she was ridden upside down. She likes to get out and lead and set the tempo. She may just be hard to run down here this weekend!
Selections: 1-4-6-12
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Race 4 – Ranvet Stakes (Group 1)
The first of the Group 1 races on the program – what a great line up as well!
I hear a lot of people writing off Hartnell (1) after his last start failure when beaten by the mighty mare Winx. Well I think he is a great bet at $2 this weekend. He has a nearly unblemished third up record with four wins from five starts. I think he will destroy this lot this weekend and we should see the real Hartnell here!
The United States (5) is my danger to Hartnell. I think you can forget his run at Flemington last start where he was not in the speed lane and struggled to make ground over the final 200m. To me that the run was full of merit and he will be in this for a long way! Our Ivanhoe (3) always races well fresh First up this weekend on a soft track he will perform well and will take improvement from the run. He recently had a barrier trial at Randwick on a heavy track and looked forward when defeated by 1.6 lengths by First Seal.
Selections: 1-5-4-3
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Race 5 - George Ryder (Group 1)
Winx (8) dominates the market at very short odds here at $1.15 – but can she continue her record winning career this weekend on a bog track? Will Chris Waller allow here to run again on another heavy track this weekend?
Sixteen wins in a row is a massive feat! Look, she is all class and it is a joy to watch here – simply ... she runs, she wins! But I tell you what, Le Romain (2) will be in this right up to his ears. He loves the wet. Actually he grows webbed feet so watch out for some tactics from jockey Glyn Schofield to test the mighty mare. For mine it is Winx by 1.5 lengths!
Selections: 8-2-3-6
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Race 6 – Rosehill Guineas (Group 1)
Inference (4) and Tommy Berry won last start on a heavy track at Randwick when he won the Randwick Guineas over 1600m. That long sustained run gives me the opinion that the 2000 metres here will not bother the Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes trained colt. Prized Icon (1) and Seaburge (3) both met last start in the Australian Guineas at Flemington. Both runs were meritorious, however, I think that Seaburge was not in the best part of the track to make his normal strong flashing finish. Prized Icon (1) raced closer and had a good run in the straight and finished second.
The interesting runner is the New Zealand invader Gingernuts, trained by Stephen Autridge and Jamie Richards. Normally the kiwi runners love the wet - actually the wetter and heavier the track the better! Whilst the gelding has no “heavy” track form he has some solid performances on a “slow” track with three starts, two wins and a second. He is coming back in distance from the 2400m of his last start in New Zealand – but this may be a huge benefit this weekend as the 2000 metres of this race may race like 2400 metres on this heavy track that has been forecast.
Selections: 4-1-3-2
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Race 7 – 2017 Longines Golden Slipper (Group 1)
There is a massive field here! Some of the fancied runners are drawn wide. The heavy track will rule some of the starters out of the race – then again a horse that has shown no form on a wet track may just rear its head here and win at massive odds. At around 4.15pm (NSW time) we will know the winner for 2017!
Well so much for NSW v QLD and Victoria in this race! I cannot believe some of the stories I am reading about Houtzen (15). You Queenslanders should hang your head in shame. Despite the wide barrier and the wet track – she cannot win ... so you think!
I was laid up in bed and watched her carry 63 kilograms at Eagle Farm two weeks ago – it brought tears to my eyes to see her win like she did. She is a high class filly and I am sure that if she is kept sound in years to come we will be talking about her over and over again. So for me it is the Gold Coast trained – HOUTZEN!
Now for the placings – just take the field! No I am joking! I have a healthy respect for the top weight here Pariah (1). He ran so well in the 2017 Blue Diamond at Caulfield when narrowly beaten by Catchy (9). I think back to Sydney – back to Rosehill where he is one start for one win, and at $9 he is a good each way gamble. She Will Reign (12) was the early market favourite for months until she was beaten last start by Frolic (13) – well was she beaten by that horse or by one of the most skilful and freakish rides that I have seen on a wet track in years – take a bow Tommy Berry it was an 11/10 ride! I think that despite the wide draw Frolic (13) is right in this race again. I am not sure if Tommy Berry will come down the outside rail again – but rest assured he will do his homework and make a run in the best part of the track. David Hayes and Tom Dabernig have four runners involved here. I am going to tip Tulip (11) to finish the best of his runners this weekend. I think the wet track and her last start win here last week puts her right in this race.
Look, this is going to be a great race. If you like picking jockeys, colours or names don’t let me sway you. The race may well be won by something at $51 or greater if the track is chopped up and racing poorly come this stage of the day. It could well turn into a lottery and a battle of who gets the best run and what horse does appreciate a heavy yielding track.
For the record my best roughie is Diamond Tathagata (5) currently you can get $71 if you shop well. I may stand corrected but I believe this is Mark Newnham’s first ever Golden Slipper runner since he went out on his own from learning from his mentor Gai Waterhouse. The colt has drawn well and has two great results on a heavy track – and it does have the assistance from another wonderful South African jockey in Glyn Schofield. He will race on the speed and may well prove hard to run down if nothing is making ground come the running of the race.
Selections: 15-1-13-11 rough chances 5 and 12
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Race 8 – 2017 Galaxy (Group 1)
This is an open field – not much money for any of them since the markets have opened and the bookies are betting $6 the field. I like Russian Revolution (12). He has had two recent barrier trials to get ready for this first up assignment. Kerrin McEvoy has wasted to get down to the 50.5 kilograms to ride the colt as well. I think he is a great gamble at $6. I have a soft spot for English (3) as well. She is a wonderful sprinting mare. I just think that Randwick is more her go and she doesn’t have a flash record here at Rosehill – nor a great second up record. I still think she will be competitive and will find a place this weekend but I think there are a few things against her. Redzel (6) who is stable mate to Russian Revolution, is well placed here in this grade and gets in well at the weights. He too likes a wet track and will be in the finish when the judge calls a halt to the race.
Selections: 12-3-6-1
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Race 9
I think if you have had a win by this race you should head to the bar for the day – buy your mates a few beers, grab a feed and sit back and watch these last two races. They look tough on paper, let alone with the track probably being a mess by now ... anything could happen!
I am tipping Elle Lou (2), she has come back from an unlucky run on the Gold Coast on Magic Millions day and has won two starts impressively on rain affected ground. She looks the one to beat here. Alegria (4) ran second to Elle Lou (2) last start and may just have some more improvement in her – the 1900metres of the race will probably suit as well as she likes to race over longer distances. Happy Hannah (5) raced last start at Flemington and ran a great race first up. Kerrin McEvoy takes the ride this weekend. Look for an improved run second up here this weekend. The early market favourite is Vandancer (7) – again she has great second up form and will like the heavy going this weekend.
Selections: 2-4-5-7
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Race 10 – Provincial Championships Qualifier
This is a rough race. Like I said, I am watching it from the bar with my mates. I don’t really care who wins this but they will find it hard to beat the Matthew Dunn trained Perfect Dare at Randwick in a few weeks time!
Machinegun Jubs (4) comes of a nice win at Canterbury last start – the mare has some good “soft” track form and has a nice second on a heavy track. Twist Tops (3) has drawn barrier 20 but has been racing in some higher class races in the city. I think that she is good odds and will run a hole here. Rock on Zariz (6) has a good first up record and probably has the best wet weather form in the race – I cannot find a barrier trial for the four year old mare but at around $21 she is great value here each way if the track is a bog. Don’t get stung in your multiples and exotic bets here either – make sure you find a place for The Wasp (17). The filly has won her last two starts and gets her chance to win in the city this weekend! (Sorry for the bad pun).
Selections: 4-3-6-17 rough chance 12
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Early Quaddie (races 3 to 6 NSW TAB only)
1,4,6 / 1,5 / 8 / 1,2,3,4 - cost is $24 for $1
Quadrella (races 7 to 10)
1,11,13,15 / 3,6,12 / 2,4,5,7 / 3,4,6,17 - cost is $192 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
1,15 / 3,12 / 2,4 / 4,6 - cost is $16 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,15 / 12 / 2 / 4 - cost is $2 to $1
Treble (races 8 to 10)
3,6,12 / 2,4,5,7 / 3,4,6,17 - cost is $48 to $1
Jockey Challenge
This week I am tipping at South African – and it is not Jeff Lloyd. I think Glyn Schofield has a very nice book of rides and if he gets any luck will be hard to toss here!
Good luck and good punting!
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