WINNO'S WINNERS: GOLD COAST, MARCH 18
By Darren Winningham | Friday, March 17, 2017
GOLD COAST - SATURDAY 18 MARCH 2017
The rail will be in the true position for the entire circuit and the track is rated a Heavy 9 as I write this – but may be downgraded.
The rail was out last weekend and the horses were coming wide here. The track looked to be pretty chopped up on television but the track staff at the Gold Coast do an amazing job each week to get the track back and ready for racing every Saturday.
My mail is that jockeys will probably not want to be on the rail as the day progresses and will make their runs three or four wide in the running.
My shout outs for this week must firstly go to Jeff Lloyd riding 100 winners for the season on Wednesday at Doomben – such a wonderful effort – and I am sure there are many more to come and he should eclipse the Brisbane metropolitan record of 103 winners in a season that was set by Chris Munce in 2011/12.
After giving Sky Channel’s Josh Fleming a touch up last weekend I must acknowledge his wonderful tipping effort at Doomben where he tipped five – yes 5 - of the winners on the program last week. He had been suffering a little drought with his tips and weather predictions of late – but he is back firing on all cylinders – we will be watching to see if he can keep it going this weekend!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
We start the day off with an open two year old race. I think that Miss Exfactor (7) is a certainty here after a tremendous race debut behind the boom filly Houtzen. Jim Byrne is back after a short spell courtesy of the stewards here (he probably has been catching up on his pile of sewing) and will be eager to get back in the winner’s circle. By the way Jim – how is your Origin team shaping up for 2017 – no Greg Inglis and no Matt Scott? Maybe a NSW victory is on the horizon.
Sorry I digress back to the horses!
Nivo (10) is trained locally by Daniel and Bryan Guy and has had a run here at the track. I always think that horses that have seen the track and run well here usually perform well here. Maharni (3) is another that fits that bill with a last start third here two weeks ago when favourite. I think he will strip better for the run.
Selections: 7-10-3-11
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Race 2
This is a real tough race. Bjorn Baker has sent another one of his middle distance runners north after some unlucky placings and a win in Sydney – Positive Problems (9) is going well enough to win this but it is short odds at $2. Lieder (7) has been running home well late in his last two starts and may be better suited here this weekend by the 1800m around the Gold Coast. He will need to make a strong run late to win.
One that will race on the speed is Karakabeel (1). It has won two from two here at the track – he has had a fortnight between runs – can handle a soft track and probably will be out in front or taking a sit behind King Red (2). Jimmy Orman takes the ride for the Gollan team this weekend. Another NSW runner makes the trek north after a win at Randwick in one of those Highway restricted races on a bog (heavy) track last start. Mr Spin (4) does like the sting out of the ground and will be in the finish for sure.
Selections: 9-7-1-4
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Race 3
Here we go another distance race – this time at the Gold Coast. These just keep getting tougher each week and with a heavy track forecast – it just making tipping a nightmare. I know that Magnatune (1) has webbed feet and loves a wet track so he will be hard to beat here if the track is really heavy. He has a nice weight relief as well with Adam Sewell riding the seven year old gelding.
I thought I may go wide this week with one from Kelso Wood & Patricia Gesler stables and tip Lightning Bell (4) at around the $9 mark. I have found some wet weather performances for the four year old gelding and he has won his last two starts impressively. I note the key booking of the “King of the Gold Coast”, Daniel Griffin as well for the ride. I think this is a good each way chance here. I may be wrong but this could be the first winner for the recently formed Kelso/Gesler team – good luck guys! Three Points (6) just keeps running places. I am sure he will find another place here as well. Skytrek (5) is a Barry Lockwood trained gelding that does go well here at the Gold Coast and will appreciate the sting out of the ground. All on all it is a tough race and anything could win.
Selections: 4-1-6-5
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Race 4
A 900m dash at the Gold Coast – normally you have to draw in close to have any chance in these scampers.
Land Office (4) is first up here and has won at the track and does have good heavy track form. The five year old gelding has a recent barrier trial the other week where he wasn’t really asked to do much – so do not worry about the trial. He does have a poor first up record with only one placing. Sassy Tycoon (2) has drawn average here in barrier 9, however, does get out of the gate well – Adam Sewell is booked to ride the speed machine mare this weekend for the Mel Eggleston stables. She won a recent barrier trial at the Gold Coast in a commanding fashion. Prior to the spell she won the Kilcoy Dash in course record time. I was there to see her nearly break the sound barrier – she goes fast and will be in front and hard to run down for a long way. She is great each way odds at around $15. Dylan’s Luck (6) loves the Gold Coast track with three of his four career wins having come here.
He does have good wet ground form as well and Jim Byrne will ride the gelding for Lindsay Hatch. Isis Magic (12) has drawn badly in gate 18. I am not sure whether Ben Currie will run the mare or not from that barrier but she was impressive with a great win when resuming at Toowoomba two weeks ago. Moshki (14) led and tired at Eagle Farm last start. I think this week, second up, she may strip fitter and may be ridden a little more quieter and could be in the finish. Prior to the run at Eagle Farm my Mid-North Coast NSW spies said she was flying – maybe she was another one that just didn’t handle the new Eagle Farm surface and it may be best to overlook that run.
Selections: 2-6-4-12 rough chance 14
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Race 5
I tipped Neuschwanstein (3) last start at Eagle Farm – the gelding won well over 1400 metres on that occasion. He does love the sting out of the ground as well and he should get those conditions again here this weekend. I note that Rob Heathcote has gone for a claim on the gelding with seasoned apprentice Matthew McGillivray this weekend. I am sheepishly putting him on top but I have a healthy respect for the Barry Baldwin trained Motion Granted (10). I think that this gelding ticks a few boxes this week – he likes wet tracks, has performed well here at the Gold Coast and Cassandra Schmidt has a winning record on him. So I think he is good odds at around $10 each way.
Tony Gollan has Brazen Moss (6) engaged here as well. He doesn’t win too often but again loves wet tracks and has a placing on the track. I see Jim Byrne has been engaged this weekend as well. He has a good strike rate on this one with three rides for two wins – it would not surprise me to see him show up here. There is a nice roughie in the race as well – Arthur Le Roi (13) trained by Steve Tregea and to be ridden by Anthony Allen. He is great odds at $25 in the markets. I know he is up in grade here but when he gets down in the weights, on soft ground, he can show up at a nice price. Of note also is that he has had two of his three career wins here on the Gold Coast circuit and both times Anthony Allen rode him – now there is a winning combination that cannot be overlooked!
Selections: 3-10-6-13 rough chance 9
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Race 6
This is a brute of a race – so many chances – anything can win this Stakes race.
I am going to tip Fast Arrow (9) trained by Mick Mair at the Sunshine Coast and to be ridden by Dan Griffin. Last start he won a BM75 race here at the Gold Coast and carried 61.0 kilograms – sure he is up in grade this week but he will love the sting out of the ground and Dan Griffin knows this gelding well, with three rides, two wins and a second on him. If you scout for a price early you can claim around $14 and I think this is great value! Friendly Dragon (7) I just cannot catch on his day but I tell you what he goes good here and he will be at good odds as well. Do not leave him out of your exotics.
Dance of Heroes (6) was an enormous run first up for new trainer David Vandyke. Whilst his second up form is nothing to rave about if he has taken benefit from the run and settled in at the Sunshine Coast he will be coming hard and late. Natalie McCall trains Colour Charge (5) and the gelding was impressive last start at Eagle Farm when he won the Member’s Cup – winning form is good form I always say! There is some value in this race and maybe we can jag a nice exotic or two here!
Selections: 9-7-5-6
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Race 7
This is a good race and these races at the Gold Coast are usually evenly contested with horses strung across the track at the finish line – if this happens it is a real spectacle to see seven or eight horses finish within a length of each other. I think this may be the case this weekend.
I have really struggled to find a winner here – to be honest I think you should back one and save on the other. My two top selections are Flamboyer (2) and Hi I’m Back (8). Now for the justification – Flamboyer – trained on the track races handy, drawn well and is an absolute mud lark. I think he can run in flippers this one! Then, Hi I’m Back (sort of ironic as I am second up from a spell myself), has raced well against some good company, down in weights, but up in grade and does love the 1400 metres of this race – whilst no heavy track form has soft excellent soft track form. Well there you go – Flamboyer, at around $4.60 and Hi I’m Back at around $9 take your choice and save on the other!
As for the placings there are two runners that will get back and will be storming late our wide – Sir Moments (1) and In His Stride (5). Both have good form here at the track and both will handle the going. I just want to mention the brave run of In His Stride (5) over the Magic Millions Carnival when he stormed home and was just beaten by Madotti in a photo at this track. It was one of the best runs I have seen in a while at the Gold Coast by a back marker. He has been freshened for this and they tell me he has been working well up in Toowoomba under the astute eye of trainer Rex Lipp. Then you have Jopa, has been super consistent this preparation and racing without luck. He is another that improves 3 lengths on a heavy track!
Selections: 2-8-5-1 rough chance 4
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Race 8
What a way to finish off the day – so many good horses in one race. I was taken by the runs of both Our Beebee (8) and Tyzone (1) when they both won their last starts respectively. It has been tough to separate them here this weekend. Tyzone will handle the soft going but has never been tried on a heavy track – this with the 59 kilograms has swung me to Our Beebee who gets in with just 51.5 kilograms after Rebecca Williams’ claim. There is one here that I did wrap last start and got home well at Eagle Farm at huge odds – Beaudacious (9) trained by Kelly Schweida. This filly has an excellent second up record, has won her only two career starts here at the Gold Coast and won’t mind the sting out of the ground – a healthy respect here at the $12 on offer.
The Gollan stables have a few nominated here as well. I’m a Rippa (4) has been racing well and is second up here this weekend – not sure how the gelding will fare on the wet track and being second up. The other runner is one that is the lightly raced Scorcha (15) and I see Jim Byrne has taken the ride on this one for the stable. It only just won a maiden last start but he did score well. The other runners that should be mentioned are Manaya (2) and Manias (14). As I said a couple of weeks ago if trainer Michael Costa can get Manaya (2) right on the day she will destroy them – but I prefer for her to win before I start tipping her on top again. The Rob Heathcote trained Manias (14) is second up here but was an eye catching third behind Our Beebee (8) last start at Eagle Farm – watch out for an improved performance this weekend.
Selections: 8-1-9-14 rough chances 2, 4 and 15
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Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW TAB only)
7 / 1,7,9 / 1,4,6 / 2,4,6,14 - cost is $36 for $1
Quadrella (races 5 to 8)
3,6,10,13 / 5,7,9 / 1,2,5,8 / 1,2,8,9,14 - cost is $240 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
3,6 / 7,9 / 1,2,8 / 1,8,9 - cost is $36 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
3,13 / 9 / 2,8 / 1,8 - cost is $8 to $1
Treble (races 6 to 8)
5,7,9 / 1,2,5,8 / 1,2,8,9,14 - cost is $60 to $1
Jockey Challenge
This week I am tipping a Queenslander this week. I will put the mock on Jim Byrne to get home – but there may be some value in a saver on Larry Cassidy he has a nice book of rides.
Last week I had to share the $6 on offer about Ronnie Stewart when he tied in the jockeys challenge!
Good luck and good punting!
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