WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, MARCH 25
By Darren Winningham | Friday, March 24, 2017
We are back at Doomben this week. The track will be rated heavy unless there is some good weather in the lead up to the meeting. The track was used midweek on Wednesday, so it may still be a little chopped up as they seemed to be getting into it at that meeting. The rail Is 0.5m out for the entire course.
This week saw the appeals of jockeys James McDonald and Danny Nikolic – whilst there alleged offences are polar opposites both appeals were dismissed. Jeff Lloyd was suspended for his ride on Houtzen in the Golden Slipper and has lodged an appeal that will be heard on today. He still managed a winning double on Wednesday at Doomben and is now only one off equalling Chris Munce’s record of 103 wins in a season.
In other news this week Matthew Hill has been appointed as the replacement for Greg Miles in Melbourne. Those who read this column may have been able to get hold of the $12 on offer when the corporate book makers framed a market and were besieged by the flood of money for Matt. Winno has some money to bet with this weekend!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
We open the day with a two year old race. I have noted a massive plunge for Hingus Rose (14) from the Stuart Kendrick stables on the Sunshine Coast – opening at around $25 and now into $9 presently. On exposed trial form I cannot have it, but where there is smoke sometimes there is fire! There has been good support also for Amelia Jane (10) from the Michael Nolan stables in Toowoomba. Although I cannot find any trial form for the filly I note that inform apprentice Rebecca Williams has been booked for the ride – a three kilogram weight relief on a heavy track may be a telling factor if this filly has some ability. Currently she has been backed from $20 to $9 since the markets have opened. Jimmy Orman rides Bold Xavvi (4) here for Garnett Taylor. I hear that the barrier trial win on the Sunshine Coast two weeks ago was impressive – the colt is presently around the $10 mark after opening in some markets at $14.
Personally I like the run of Snitz (2) at Grafton on debut. I think it was a good field and the Matthew Dunn trained gelding was able to win in impressive fashion – a nice price here this weekend at around the $4.40 mark. Others that should be considered are Acceptile (1), who has been racing very consistently since a brief let up, and Wudgang Blade (3), from the Marcus Wilson stables on the Gold Coast, who won on debut when he led at Ipswich. Tegan Harrison retains the ride on the gelding. It has drawn well here and probably will lead again this weekend. Leaders may be hard to run down on this forecasted heavy track – alternatively something that has webbed feet may surprise us all!
Selections: 2-3-10-1 rough chance 4
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Race 2
There is a smaller field this week for our stayer’s race.
Magnatude (4) just loves the wet tracks and gets through them the strongest. Last weekend at the Gold Coast the gelding was ridden a treat by apprentice Adam Sewell. Even with the step up this week to Open company I think the conditions will suit the seven year old gelding. There is a slight concern with a poor record here at Doomben, but if the track is bottomless I am sure that this will be in his favour. The other one that likes the wet is Outraged (2), trained by Kelly Schweida. Again the gelding will appreciate the sting out of the ground and has been racing consistently in this grade for several weeks. Morendi (3) will probably blow them both out. The four year old gelding trained at Murwillumbah by Darren Graham has found a purple patch of form. He really does prefer the sting out of the ground and I do recall Darren saying after his last win at Doomben that he goes well in this type of ground. I wonder whether if the horse stays sound that he may be a prospective runner over the Brisbane Winter Carnival or even a prospective 2017 Grafton Cup candidate?
Selections: 4-3-2-5
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Race 3
I don’t think many people missed the impressive performance of Perilous Love (1) last start at Doomben when she destroyed a similar field by 5.3 lengths when ridden by Jimmy Orman. I note that she has won in the heavy going as well at the Gold Coast around two months ago. That day she was impressive as well on a bog track – all goes well for her this weekend here. She is short in the early markets at $2.40, but she does look the likely winner.
Ercolano (3), trained by Tony Gollan, won his maiden midweek at Doomben around two weeks ago on a soft track – this weekend the gelding is stepping up in grade but I think she may be good enough to handle the class rise and fill a place here. Let Me Say This (7) is another one up in grade here after a midweek win at Eagle Farm. The Steven O’Dea trained gelding has an impressive winning record of 2 wins from 2 starts in slow conditions and is bred to handle wet conditions – if anything is going to challenge the favourite here this weekend I think it may be this one. It actually looks a good quinella for this race (1 & 7). Up The Tempo (4) has had blinkers applied last start and there was an improved performance behind Perilous Love (2). Maybe second time over the 2000 metre journey there may be a continued improvement.
Selections: 1-7-3-4
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Race 4
I know there was a lot of discussion last start when Cantbuybetter (2) was heavily backed from $17 to $4.80 on race day two weeks ago here at Doomben. I recall the gelding having very little luck in running and not getting a clear run in the straight and finishing eighth beaten by 3.8 lengths. This weekend despite the conditions I think that with Jeff Lloyd on board he may be ridden differently and should be hard to beat in this race. I am keen to take some of the $5 on offer each way this weekend. Sheiswhatsheis (4) was super impressive when winning two weekends ago here – she took up the running and never looked like getting beaten. She was ridden an absolute treat by Lani Fancourt who again will partner the Tony Gollan trained mare. She will be hard to beat again!
Neuschwanstein (7) does like the sting out of the ground – in fact the Rob Heathcote trained gelding goes great in it! I would forget the run last start at the Gold Coast last weekend when drawn wide and really had no luck. I am giving him another good each way chance this weekend at the great odds of $16! I see Ronnie Stewart is back from a short holiday courtesy of the stewards and reunites this weekend with the horse on which he has a 100% strike rate – one ride and one win! (Did I mention I tipped this at $25 when it won as well – just for you Josh Fleming)!
Selections: 2-4-7-1 rough chance 9
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Race 5
This is an open race.
I think Candika (13) is probably the best performed horse in the race and warrants some respect in this field, however, she is drawn wide and may have to be ridden back and for luck. This is why I am going away from the $3.40 favourite this weekend. I am going to put Nilette (8) on top here – the mare is second up this weekend for Rob Heathcote. She loves the wet – she can lead or sit off the pace – and she has drawn well in barrier one. I think for these reasons she is a great gamble at $14 each way this weekend – and she has a good rider in Anthony Allen who tends to land a large priced winner in town from time to time!
Forbidden Kisses (6) was great in defeat last start flashing late to be narrowly beaten by the Kropp trained Rodanos – which I think will go onto be pretty good – one for the black book for sure! I think over the 1200m here she will be well suited and Damien Brown has retained the ride on the Les Kelly trained mare.
I have found another roughie here as well for your exotics – Diamond On Command (15) from the Matthew Dunn yards at Murwillumbah. Make sure you include this one in your trifectas and first four bets. I really think she is one here that may find the wet track to her liking and may run a race at huge odds of $35.and again long priced winning jockey Ronnie Steward is engaged for this ride!
Selections: 8-6-13-15 rough chance 7
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Race 6
Quatronic (1) was sent out favourite last start and it is well documented that the gelding was extremely disappointing finishing last behind Pinch River. Whilst on Pinch River – I think that he is a good bet for the Weetwood to be held in Toowoomba in a few weeks – you heard it here first!
Again I am going for one that is proven on the wet track and down in the weights – Fortini (7)! This one ticks a few boxes as well – wet track form awesome – second up record five starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds – trained by Rob Heathcote and to be ridden again by Anthony Allen. The run first up behind Lucky Tom when he flashed home last and was beaten by 0.6 lengths was amazing. I am keen on the $12 on offer here each way. In fact get out of my way so I can knock bookmaker Con Searle off his stand whilst he is enjoying his customary sandwich for afternoon tea!
If you overlook the disappointing performance of Quatronic (1) last start and go on his previous form he should be in this race for a long way – drawn well and will handle the track conditions and has had a month between that poor performance and always races fresh. Don’t Tell Mama (6) has a reasonable record on soft tracks and does have a great record here at Doomben so I am putting her into my placings.
Rob Heathcote’s other runner here is Privlaka (3). He is a four year old gelding that races well fresh and will certainly appreciate the sting out of the ground. Damien Browne has been booked for the ride – watch out for this one as well. He has been supported in early markets firming from $12 to $9 as well.
Selections: 7-1-6-3 rough chances 12 & 15
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Race 7
I really struggled with this race. There are some serious chances.
Jopa (3) is backing up from a solid run last weekend at the Gold Coast. He normally races well after a short break - this weekend will be three weeks in a row where he has run. He really does love wet tracks and does perform well on them so he must be put in. Last weekend in the same race Flamboyer (2) was engaged and he finished behind Jopa at the Gold Coast – he too loves a wet track, but has never won a race at Doomben over the 1350m in his career. Then you have Lucky Tom (8) who won well in a Class 6 race here last start leading all the way and holding off the opposition late. He steps back up here to Open company is not out of place here. He is great from over the track and distance – he likes a wet track – and has a good second up record. Jockey Tegan Harrison has a good affiliation with the gelding riding him for trainer Harold Norman three times for two wins.
I ended up tipping one down in the weights that does like heavy tracks and goes well for the jockey – Divine Service (10) and Luke Tarrant to ride him. I think from barrier two he will probably take up a handy forward position behind Flamboyer (2) and Lucky Tom (8). Maybe at the weights he may just end up running past these two in the last 100 metres of the race. It was handy a fortnight ago when Siegfried (2) won after drawing wide. Siegfried was rushed forward by Jeff Lloyd and was still holding off all comers. As Jeff walked to weigh out he said to trainer Toby Edmonds “he has learnt to be brave as well today”. Siegfried has been in career best form since resuming from a spell 3 months ago – I am just not too sure how the wide barrier and the wet track will affect his chances this week.
Selections: 10-8-3-4 rough chances 2 & 14
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Race 8
This week the last race is a No Metro Win Handicap race. The raceschedulers really do not like the punters – especially those you like to take Quaddies and Trebles!
A lot of the chances I like are drawn wide here – this may be an advantage if the track chops up and is rain affected. I have no idea where to start so I will go down the page in race book order here.
Motion Granted (2), trained by Barry Baldwin and to be ridden by Cassie Schmidt, won last start at Ballina and does like a soft track. Cassie has ridden the gelding in all four career wins so she knows him well. Always Sacred (4) trained by Toby Edmonds and to be ridden by Jeff Lloyd – a formidable combination. The four year old gelding comes off a nice last start win here at Doomben over the shorter 1200 metres distance and does have some solid soft track form.
Chivadahlii (5) ... good luck pronouncing that one David Fowler! Trained by Brian Smith – but transferred from the string Darren Weir stables in Melbourne – has solid wet track form and has up great first up record with five starts, two wins and three seconds – he certainly rates a mention here. Helarocity (8) went well here six weeks ago and ran second, then went back home to Toowoomba and won a class 4 race very well. A lightly raced five year old gelding with only 9 career starts for five wins and trained by Lindsay Hatch – just worried as he does not have any real wet weather form.
Counter Meal (11) is probably the best wet tracker in the race – but has drawn terrible in barrier 18. I think Adam Sewell may get blown away from the jet surge from the planes taking off at Brisbane Airport out there! He normally races forward in his races and I am concerned that he may get trapped three or four wide in the run. On the positive side Adam has a three kilogram claim that means he gets in well with no weight.
Jetsonic (13) to be ridden by Jim Byrne – who was in great form last weekend on the Gold Coast riding a double on a tough program. Again a lightly raced four year old gelding trained by the Gollan team. Has some solid wet weather form as well – just not sure how he will be ridden from the wide barrier – he may get too far back to make any impression here.
Lastly, the fifth emergency Wack’em (21) – I will keep it clean here – just because Jimmy Orman is riding the four year old gelding trained by Scott Morrisey on the Gold Coast. He has not much weight, has drawn well and will handle a wet track. He could be a blow out here if he makes the field and Orman gets any luck in running.
Well there you go – the chances as I see them – this is going to be tough. For mine I will be watching and not gambling.
I have put the numbers into a hat and they have come out this way ...
Selections: 11-5-13-2 rough chances 4 & 21
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Early Quaddie (Races 1 to 4 NSW TAB only)
2,3,10 / 3,4 / 1,7 / 2,4,7 - cost is $36 for $1
Quadrella (races 5 to 8)
6,8,13,15 / 1,3,6,7 / 3,8,10 / 2,5,11,13 - cost is $192 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
6,8,15 / 1,7 / 8,10 / 5,11 - cost is $24 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
6,8 / 6,7 / 10 / 5,11,21 - cost is $12 to $1
Treble (races 6 to 8)
1,3,6,7 / 3,8,10 / 2,5,11,13 - cost is $48 to $1
Jockey Challenge
This week the field looks like a triple dead heat – Jeff Lloyd, Adam Sewell and Anthony Allen – the last two may be massive odds – so maybe have something on them all!
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I have also been asked by the punters to include my best bets each week - well here goes this week:
Best bet
Race 1 - 2 Snitz
Best Value - two this week
Race 5 - 8 Nilette and Race 6 - 3 Fortini
Good luck and good punting!
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