WINNO'S WINNERS - DOOMBEN, APRIL 22
By Darren Winningham | Friday, April 21, 2017
We are back at Doomben this week. The track will be rated 'Good', so we should be able to bet with some confidence. The rail is out 1.5 metres. After the races last weekend it looked like the jockeys were avoiding the rail – maybe those racing on the fence this week will have an advantage.
I will not be at Doomben this week. I am packing my bag, computer and camera and heading to Kilcoy on Saturday for their Annual Anzac Day meeting – so I will be getting amongst the bookmakers up there. Normally there are six or so who attend the track on these days and provide some good odds for punters on course.
News around this week has centred around the discussion of racing on Good Friday.
Look I think that whilst it appears it was a success in Western Australia last week I feel that there are not many days when jockeys, strappers, trainers and others get the opportunity to spend some quality time with their family and friends. I think this day should be left alone and people should be able to spend the day with their families! An extra metropolitan race meeting – what will that achieve with racing set down for Saturday, Sunday and Monday on Easter weekend? I think all it will mean is smaller, substandard fields – so why bother?
Let people in racing have a day off!
On the flip side there is the other argument about giving the public something to do on Good Friday. I think that if you are going to race Good Friday it should be a picnic meeting or a Carnival day like those that used to be scheduled at Deagon up until recent years – where families can spend time together – experience the fun of racing in a less formal and carnival atmosphere. I think this type of day could be beneficial.
There are arguments for and against – I just don’t think we should be scheduling a metropolitan meeting if we go down this path.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day.
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Race 1
The distance race this week – Lottery time!
I am going for Mr Lebrock (7) here. I thought last week he raced as if he was looking for the longer distance. He gets that this weekend and Jim Byrne stays on him. There has been some solid backing for Comacina (4), being backed from $3.70 into $3.10 in the early markets. Emerald City (1) will be better for his recent runs as well and probably will fill the placing. He gets a dry track here and will appreciate that as well.
Selections: 7-4-1-5
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Race 2
This looks a tough race with a few horses being unraced and a few horses resuming here.
The Tony Gollan / Jim Byrne team have a great chance here with Splitter (9) after an impressive first up effort at Toowoomba. There are an interesting couple of runners here in Calligrapher (1), who has a stable change from the Peter & Paul Snowden yards in Sydney to the Les Kelly stables on the Gold Coast, and Eptimum (15) who is the first starter from the strong Toby Edmonds stable. Both have trialled impressively at the Gold Coast in recent weeks. Both starters have drawn well.
Cooroi Choice (5) was super impressive on debut at Doomben after a great trial win at Deagon. The first up run was on a heavy track but the Peter & Will Hulbert trained filly was dominant in the that performance. Michael “Muppy” Hellyer retains the ride on the filly. Sista Act (7) resumes here as well after some solid performances last preparation – do not let her get under your guard.
Selections: 9-1-5-15 rough chance 7
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Race 3
I am going to go wide and tip Benfica Princess (5) on top here with the set weights. There are some nice types here but I think this filly has the potential to kick some goals over the upcoming Winter Carnival in Brisbane. I think the 1600m second up will suit the Kelly Doughty trained filly and I am sure with Luke Milligean will probably flash his big head in front of the camera if he is strapping her this weekend! She is some great odds at around $20 at this stage.
Candika (1) ran well last weekend and is on the quick back up here as is Our Beebee (2) who was disappointing last week. I thought that that she was the victim of circumstances and the track did contribute to her poor performance last weekend. This weekend the 1600m should help her back into top four placings. I know that Toowoomba trainer has always thought that we would see the best of her once she got over a mile. She gets that chance this weekend!
Sydney trainer Jason Coyle has Siren’s Fury engaged here. She has been well supported in the early markets and Kathy O’Hara makes the trip to Brisbane to continue her association with the filly. Siren’s Fury (3) has been running on bog tracks in recent weeks in Sydney and I am only concerned about how she may go on a dry track.
Perilous Love (4) trained by Scott Morrisey has had a month off racing and been freshened up for this race. Last preparation she strung two impressive wins together on good tracks before being beaten by a large weight on a heavy track. I think, like Benfica Princess (5), she is set for bigger and better things over the Brisbane Winter Carnival that is upon us and with any solid speed on in the race will be flashing home late here with Jimmy Orman in the saddle.
Selections: 5-2-1-3 rough chance 4
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Race 4
Land Office (4) has an impeccable third up record with two wins and a second from three starts and looks a great bet here this weekend. The step up to the 1200m all seems to point to the fact that this could be a great bet at around the $2.80 mark that is on offer.
Say You Love Me (15) is first up here, trained by Matthew Dunn at Murwillumbah and has had the benefit of a solid recent barrier trial at the Gold Coast where the mare looked good. Big priced winning jockey Ronnie Stewart has been booked to ride her and at $20 in the early markets represents some good each way value here.
The others look an even bunch outside of these two. The Daniel Want trained Grafton gelding Dantga (3) won impressively last start at Grafton and has won here at Doomben previously. Ben Looker makes the long drive up the Pacific Highway to keep his association with the six year old gelding. Ben has ridden him five times for two wins and a second. Assertory (12) was first up at Toowoomba a fortnight ago. I just don’t think she appreciated the tight track up there and got way out of her ground. She did run home well. She has a good second up record with two wins and a second from five starts so watch for an improved performance this weekend.
Confronting (6), trained by Barry Baldwin, has been up a while but just keeps putting in each week. Michael Hellyer has been reunited with the gelding this weekend and he seems to get the best of him with two wins and a placing from just five rides on him.
Overall it is a tough race but I think my top two selections are good value.
Selections: 4-15-3-12 rough chance 6
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Race 5
In His Stride (4) looks well placed here in this Handicap race. Tiffani Brooker rides the four year old Rex Lipp trained gelding this weekend. Last start at Toowoomba the run was enormous and stepping up to 1200m this weekend I think that this is a great bet at the juicy odds of $5 – get on each way I say!
Divine Centuri (6), trained by Stuart Kendrick on the Sunshine Coast, was beaten by a soft track last start at the Gold Coast when she didn’t fire. She is better than that and has an impressive record at Doomben – four starts, 2 wins and two placings. She has had five weeks between runs and I reckon at $12 on offer she is great value here. Jimmy Orman has been booked to ride her this weekend at 54 kilograms. I hope he can make weight after Easter!
Irish Constabulary (3) always runs well first up. The gelding has the services of Jeff Lloyd and will probably be ridden off the pace and will make a late run at the end of the race. The second Jason Coyle runner in Brisbane this weekend is Sweet Serendipity (10). The four year old gelding should lead here from barrier 4 as this is his natural style of racing and should set a good tempo in front. That is why I think, with the speed on, In His Stride (3) will be well suited and prove hard to beat in the first leg of the Quaddie!
The old war horse Into The Red (1) resumes here this weekend and is now trained by the newly formed team of Kelso Wood and Patricia Gesler. I wish them well with their first Saturday metropolitan runner and hope that Luke Dittman can help give the latest training partnership a win on the board! Don’t worry Patricia I will be at Kilcoy this weekend so you will not have to be looking over your shoulder wondering where I am! I have noticed some very solid support for Into The Red (1) being backed with some confidence from $10 to $7 in the early markets.
Selections: 4-6-3-1 rough chance 10
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Race 6
The Mick Dittman Plate – now here is a champion jockey who knew how to use the whip and get a horse home. These days I think he would still be competitive as he was a very balanced and strong rider, but he may have to pay a few fines for his whip use!
Enough of that discussion for now but, seriously, I miss the days of Jim “Pumper” Cassidy and Mick Dittman and other jockeys who could use a whip and get the best out of their horses.
Again there are some nice types here resuming and probably getting ready for Winter glory in Brisbane. I cannot split Tiyatrolani (8) from the Tony Gollan stables, to be ridden by Jim Byrne, and the Mel Eggleston trained All Over Bosanova (10), to be ridden by Luke “Sausage” Rolls. So I am going to bracket the two here to win the race!
I make my own rules in this tipping blog so I will do what I like!
All Over Bosanova (10) has an impressive career record with four starts for 4 wins! Luke Rolls has ridden the filly for three times for 3 wins with Sairyn Fawke (now in South Australia) riding her for her debut win on the Gold Coast.
Tiyatrolani (8) loves these short sprint races and always races well fresh. I cannot find any official barrier trial form for this one, however, the mail from the track is that she has been working well and is ready for a solid first up performance.
River Racer (6) ran in some high quality races last preparation and gets into this field well – and again the Jeff Lloyd is a key booking for the Les Ross trained filly. I think she will be better suited over more distance but her good form last preparation should hold her in good stead here this weekend.
Guard of Honour (2), trained at Newcastle by Kris Lees, is another interesting runner here – a three year old colt who last start raced well in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate at Caulfield and was beaten by just 5 lengths. He has been freshened since that run and has won a recent barrier trial at Newcastle in a dominant performance.
Ringo’s A Rockstar (1) normally is better second up in his preparations so I will think whatever he does this weekend he will improve on next start. Jockey Matthew Gray has a great affiliation with the gelding riding him three times for two wins and a second. He has drawn well and will be thereabouts in the finish.
Another Kelso Wood and Patricia Gesler runner Criquette (13) is engaged here. This filly was super impressive in her debut start in October 2015 when she was sent out at $1.30 favourite and she destroyed the field over the same track and distance as this week’s race. She is great value at $9 in the early markets and has been working well.
(8-10) – 6-2 rough chances 1 & 13
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Race 7
Cantbuybetter (11) won well last start at Toowoomba and has been absolutely smashed in the early markets since betting opened early this week – so far the Ben Currie trained gelding has been a massive go being backed from $26 to $10. This is some type of plunge prior to a race!
The stable mate Col ‘N’ Lil (6) dead heated last start in the Toowoomba Weetwood. I actually think this one is the pick of the Ben Currie runners as she will appreciate the 1600 metres of this race, however, she does not have an impressive record second up with no wins. It is a tough race this one.
Last weekend we saw the dramatic return to form of Sir Moments (1). Again I am not sure whether the track conditions enhanced the run, but he came from last and stormed down the outside late and nearly won the race.
Jumbo Prince (3), trained by Michael Nolan, dead heated in the Weetwood with Cantbuybetter (11) last start. He always runs well fresh and second up over 1600m has a good record. Luke Tarrant retains the ride here this weekend and has a great record on the stallion with seven rides for four wins, a second and a third placing.
Too Good To Refuse (5), trained by Desleigh Forster, looks well placed here this weekend. I thought last start the track didn’t suit the stallion and with a good track scheduled this weekend I think we may see the best of him here.
Brazen Moss (8) has strung two consecutive wins on some wet tracks. He has been in career best form. He steps up in grade here this week and Jim Byrne (5 rides for 4 wins) retains the ride on the Gollan runner.
As you can see it is an open race with many genuine chances – so you may have to play wide in your Quaddies and Trebles this weekend.
Selections: 3-1-11-5 rough chances 6,8, and 10
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Race 8
This is a hard race to finish off the day – just as tough as the prior race.
I likes the win last start over the Toowoomba Carnival of the Ben Currie trained Kuznetsova (13). She raced off them and was brought into the race with a well timed run by Jeff Lloyd and went away to win by 3.5 lengths. Over the same carnival Real Ego (14) won as well and ran better time than Kuznetsova (13). However, this weekend it is drawn wide here in barrier 15 and in form apprentice Rebecca Williams will probably have to settle back and try and get in and ride the gelding for luck this weekend.
Counter Meal (8) has been racing consistently over recent months and it was beaten last start by Cantbuybetter (engaged in race 7). If Cantbuybetter runs well in the previous race it will give you a good guide to his chances here this weekend.
Don’t Tell Mama (10) ran second last start to Kuznetsova (13) at Toowoomba. There is a notable shift in the weights this weekend and Don’t Tell Mama does like the Doomben track. Tony Sears has gone for a senior rider this weekend in Jimmy Orman. He has ridden the five year old mare four times for two wins and a placing – again another good chance here.
Time to Torque (4) is a genuine chance, however has drawn out on Nudgee Road in barrier 16 and may not get many favours from out there. If the track is wet this will improve the geldings chances this weekend.
Selections: 13-8-10-14 rough chances 4 and 15
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Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW TAB only)
1,4,7 / 1,5,9,15 / 1,2,5 / 4,15 - cost is $72 for $1
Quadrella (races 5 to 8)
1,3,4,6 / 2,6,8,10,13 / 1,3,5,11 / 8,10,13,14 - cost is $320 to $1
Small Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
4,6 / 6,8,10 / 1,3,11 / 8,10,13 - cost is $54 to $1
Mad Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
4/ 8,10 / 1,3 / 8,10,13 - cost is $12 to $1
Treble (races 6 to 8)
2,6,8,10,13 / 1,3,5,11 / 8,10,13,14 - cost is $80 to $1
My best bets are:
Race 4 – Land Office (4)
Race 5 – In His Stride (4)
Best roughies (all each way)
Race 1 – Mr Lebrock (7) – around $9
Race 4 – Say You Love Me (15) – around $20
Race 6 - Tiyatrolani (8) – around $10
Jockey Challenge
This week it looks like anyone could win. Jeff Lloyd has some serious chances as usual but I do think it might be Jim Byrne. It actually would be great to see Jim Byrne win something particularly as, with State of Origin upon us, it will be slim pickings for Queensland this year – the year of the NSW Blues!
Make sure you take time out to show respects to those who have fought for our country on Tuesday – ANZAC Day.
Good luck and good punting!
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